Spot Plays for 2026 Louisiana Derby Day at Fair Grounds

A lot of races to choose from this weekend at Fair Grounds — 26 — as it puts a bow on its 2025-26 winter season. The closing day card on Sunday is dominated by Louisiana-bred events, while Saturday is the signature program of the meeting with five open stakes among the seven on offer.

I'll concentrate on Saturday's program, honing in on a couple of first-time starters and then taking a stand on two of the major open stakes.

Race 4: Maiden, 2:30 p.m. ET

This six-furlong dash is open to three-year-olds and up, and I have to think the two sophomores are up against it against more mature rivals. Even one like #9 Arabian Power, who himself is making a belated career debut. By the prolific Not This Time (17% debut winners), the colt is the first foal out of a stakes-placed daughter of Bernardini.

Despite the seemingly modest worktab, I'm guessing he'll be somewhat live. Trainer Brad Cox and jockey Edgard Zayas have teamed up sporadically the last couple of years, but have a strike rate approaching 50%.

Race 7: Maiden, 4 p.m. ET

Trainer Greg Foley unveiled first-time starter Just Bluffing on Lecomte Stakes Day back in mid-January, and that colt sprung a 21-1 surprise. #7 Saint of War appears to have had some common workout days with Just Bluffing, posting a swifter work on Nov. 17 and finishing about even on Dec. 10.

Saint of War subsequently missed a little time, but more recent drills have been strong, including a bullet half-mile from the gate. A half-brother to Grade 2-placed stakes winner Willy D's, I won't be surprised if Saint of War can run a little.

Race 10: Muniz Memorial Classic (G2), 5:36 p.m. ET

Program Trading and Lagynos are the most accomplished of these turf runners, but #5 Tom's Magic is the pick. Not only is he a fan of this course, but I expect him to take a step forward in his second start of the season.

In his season debut, the Tampa Bay (G3), Tom's Magic got no assistance as favored front-runner Quatrocento secured an uncontested lead and set a manageable pace en route to an easy win. I don't believe Idratherbeblessed has the requisite class to steal this race for a second consecutive year, thus Tom's Magic figures to be in the mix at the end.

Race 12: Louisiana Derby (G2), 6:42 p.m. ET

Hoping the addition of blinkers will ensure #5 Golden Tempo doesn't fall as far off the pace as he has in his first three starts. It didn't hurt in his debut or the Lecomte (G3), but it was much tougher to close on this track the day of the Risen Star (G2).

Bred to run all day, he has both the experience and upside to make amends for that first loss here.

DOWNLOAD THE 2026 LOUISIANA DERBY CONTENDERS HERE!