Spot plays for Churchill Downs Nov. 7, 2026

Churchill Downs features a pair of stakes on the first Saturday program of the fall meet, and I will incorporate the River City (G3) and Bet on Sunshine S. into the following spot play selections.

Race 4 – Claiming Race

#2 Dancewhenyoucan (6-1) returned from a brief freshening with a pair of improved efforts, pairing up career-best Brisnet Speed ratings, recording a win at Churchill Downs and a nose second at Keeneland, and brings a winning attitude (3-for-6 at Churchill) to today’s class hike. She more than fits at this level and will make her first start off the claim for Cipriano Contreras, who is winning at a 30% rate with a positive ROI from a large sample size in the first start off the claim with a beaten favorite. I like the early/presser’s chances in this spot.

Race 5 – Allowance

#7 Early Autumn (8-1) won going away comfortably in her career debut at Saratoga and never fired when trying stakes rivals at Kentucky Downs. She received her first real challenge last time, grudgingly giving way late to finish a close third at this level, and I think the chestnut will move forward off the encouraging effort. Early Autumn displayed improved speed last time, and Luis Saez should be a good fit aboard the John Servis trainee.

Race 8 – River City (G3)

#5 Kupuna (9-2) makes his second start back from a layoff and returns to the friendly confines on Churchill’s turf in the 1 1/8-mile River City. Claimed for $100,000 from a dirt start last fall, the seven-year-old gelding made 25 of his first 26 starts on the main track before new connections switched him to turf, promptly winning a stakes-quality open allowance under the Twin Spires, defeating Northern Invader and Epic Ride. He followed with a runner-up in his first turf stakes attempt, and then captured the Colonel Bradley S. Kupuna was starting to come for Norm Casse but headed to the sidelines following a respectable third to Lagynos in the Fair Grounds (G3) in mid-February.

The dark bay came back in a paceless Bernard Baruch S. at Saratoga, leading all the way by default, but Kupuna projects to have a target in probable pacesetter Mercante on Saturday. And he should be tighter off the comebacker. I’ll look for Kupuna to earn his first graded triumph.

Race 10 – Bet on Sunshine S.

Following a layoff and a trainer change, #3 Viking (6-1) took his form to another level at Gulfstream this summer, recording a sharp score in the six-furlong Smile and a one-mile handicap, and the improved gate speed and ease in which he established blistering opening splits while well in hand certainly caught my eye watching replays. The five-year-old gelding faces 12 rivals in the six-furlong Bet on Sunshine, but none appear to be need-the-lead types with speed to burn early. I envision a favorable front-end trip for Viking, who adds Tyler Gaffalione, and he appears to be training well at Churchill in preparation for David Fawkes. Another strong front-end performance is expected.