Stakes Selections for Churchill Downs on Saturday, September 19
Explora wins the Test Stakes at Saratoga. (Photo by Coglianese Photo / Credit to Chelsea Durrand)
A trio of stakes events for sophomores will headline Churchill Downs' strong card on Saturday.
Race 6 – Harrods Creek S.
A compact but very competitive cast of three-year-olds will vie in the seven-furlong heat on the dirt. I feel that a trio of the contenders will show improvement and run big in the dash and ultimately will side with Steve Asmussen’s #4 Tagermeen (4-1). The much-improved son of Into Mischief overcame an impossible start to win in going-away fashion against allowance foes at Saratoga last time, and while he might be overbet coming off of that heroic score, I’ll still give him the slight edge under Torres. It’s worth noting that the developing colt graduated on the oval in his 2026 debut.
Race 8 – Dogwood (G3)
Recent Test (G1) romper #1 Explora (3-5) will surely be a short-priced favorite in the affair for sophomore fillies after her spectacular triumph at Saratoga last time, but I need to get more value in the affair. The improvement from the Brad Cox-conditioned #4 Conceit (7-2) this summer has been substantial, and I’ll give her a shot to knock off the favorite. Juddmonte homebred has surely taken to the transition to the dirt in 2026, and the sophomore was pretty professional when taking the Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park last time out. Not This Time filly fired a bullet five-eighths on the course in preparation for her graded bow and will have Mario Gutierrez on board.
Race 10 – Seneca Overnight S.
Six fillies will run 1 1/16 main-track miles in the final black-type tilt of the afternoon. Al Stall’s #6 In Total Awe (7-2) passed the route test in my opinion when a clear second in an allowance try at Ellis Park most recently, and I’ll give her a big chance on Saturday. The Constitution filly was an eye-catching debut winner sprinting on the course on June 28 and will move forward in her second try going long. She comes in fresh with a trio of local drills and will run them down late with regular rider Axel Concepcion in the stirrups.
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