Super Saturday wrap, I: Dirt prep winners worth opposing on Dubai World Cup night

As a general rule, winners on Super Saturday usually don’t repeat the feat in their respective races on Dubai World Cup night at Meydan. The exceptions fall into two categories – either obvious standouts, or horses peaking at the absolutely perfect time. None of the 2017 Super Saturday winners qualifies as standouts in their divisions, and those who are peaking will face a searing test on World Cup night.

The four dirt-race winners are particularly opposable, for two reasons. First, the biggest World Cup night threats weren’t there, and second, whoever rode the speed bias was uncatchable on the day. Even if Meydan continues to play friendly to on-the-pace types come March 25, there will be better front runners in the line-up to take advantage.

Exhibit A for this argument is the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 (G1), held over the Dubai World Cup (G1) trip of about 1 1/4 miles. The seven-year-old Long River (pictured) had gone winless for three years (15 starts dating back to the 2014 Evening Attire on the Aqueduct inner track). Although he had an excuse when tailed off last time in the Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (G2), and no matter how much trainer Salem bin Ghadayer raved about how well he was training, it still took a leap of faith to envision him actually pulling this off.

But the son of A.P. Indy and Round Pond grabbed the lead and never relinquished it, holding off ring-rusty defending champion Special Fighter (who hadn’t been seen since his fourth to California Chrome in last year’s World Cup) and the gallant Chilean mare Furia Cruzada.

 

“There was a small question mark about the 2000 meters,” bin Ghadayer said, “but how we saw him last week, we knew he was ready and he was asking us to take him for the race.”

In the World Cup, Long River won’t be able to dictate to the likes of Arrogate and Gun Runner, and he probably wouldn’t beat Neolithic to the fore early in any event. Special Fighter’s eligible to move forward off the comeback, but the waters are getting a lot deeper. The same goes for Godolphin’s Move Up, a useful fourth in his first dirt try. Horses can “move up” second time over this track, but if he goes, you’re still dealing with a 12-furlong performer facing world-class rivals at a distance on the sharp side for him. Lani was an even worse underlay than I thought, just never looking like getting involved from the rear.

Perhaps the most intriguing Round 3 alum is Round 2 queen Furia Cruzada. Unlike Round 2 runner-up Second Summer, who regressed (and possibly got discouraged) in Round 3, Furia Cruzada ran her race right back again. She also deserves plaudits for rallying determinedly, despite covering an extra 49 feet, according to Trakus. With her honesty, weight concession, and a strong pace courtesy of the Americans, Furia Cruzada may be able to hit the board in the World Cup.

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While not as extreme a case, the Al Bastakiya likewise leaves room for quibbles going into the UAE Derby (G2).

The Doug Watson-trained Cosmo Charlie was coming off his only loss, a distant sixth in the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3), which was also the only time he didn’t go to the front. Sporting a visor this time, the Kentucky-bred son of Stay Thirsty was plenty sharp out of the gate, and that was it.

Cosmo Charlie also benefited from the misfortune of Mike de Kock’s heavy favorite Fawree, who apparently wasn’t as over his gate issues as first hoped. Anticipating the break when his blindfold was removed, he banged himself against the stalls and unshipped jockey Bernard Fayd’Herbe. Otherwise, Fawree would have been forwardly placed himself.