The Best Longshot to bet in the 2025 Belmont Stakes

Hill Road swept from well off the pace in the Peter Pan (Photo by Coglianese Photos)

Saratoga Race Course will play host to the $2 million Belmont S. (G1) for the second consecutive season in 2025, and this edition of the race is one of the strongest in recent memory. The top-three finishers of the Kentucky Derby – Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza – are all on board, and five other talented sophomores join them in what should be a fantastic spectacle.

It will take a superb performance from a contender to knock off each of the trio above, but nothing is impossible, especially on the famed Saratoga main surface that has seen numerous standout thoroughbreds get upset on.

While the Bob Baffert-trained Rodriguez will be fancied by some as the potential wire-to-wire upset winner in the group, I will go in an entirely different direction with a one-run closer. Recent Peter Pan S. (G3) victor #1 Hill Road finished a rallying third in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar in his first appearance in the states, and he flaunted his substantial late kick to be third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his three-year-old debut, as well.

Hill Road returns to the winner's circle in the G3 Peter Pan at Aqueduct under Flavien Prat for trainer Chad Brown! 💪 pic.twitter.com/10e63EZrRv
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) May 10, 2025

Hill Road, by Quality Road, overcame a troubled break to earn his initial graded tally at Aqueduct in his second attempt off the shelf and could peak while running third time off the break on Saturday. I believe that he will be fully fit for the test, and drawing the rail on the move to 1 1/4 miles seems ideal for him, too. Trainer Chad Brown has won six of the last seven training titles at The Spa, while jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. has won three straight jockey trophies, and six in total, at the majestic venue.

What I see in the Kentucky-bred is an improving horse who is bred to love the distance, a sophomore with positive recent works, and also an advantageous draw on the fence. Combine that with his human connections that have dominated the racing at this locale in recent years, and the up-and-coming colt checks a lot of boxes.

Hill Road is the best longshot for the 2025 Belmont Stakes.

Join us on June 7 for a rematch that will shake the stands. Many top Kentucky Derby contenders return for the Belmont S. (G1) to fight for the finish, including probable contender Journalism, winner of Preakness 150, and Sovereignty, winner of Derby 151. Who will stand in the winner's circle for Belmont?

Stay with us throughout Belmont Day during stakes races as we bring you the latest horse racing news, live odds, expert picks, and more. It is sure to be an exciting day of racing!

Also, come chat with our expert panel regarding Friday and Saturday racing during Saratoga's Friday card, including the Acorn Stakes!

The Best Longshot to bet in the 2025 Belmont Stakes

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