The longest-priced winner in Preakness (G1) history, Master Derby (1975), returned $48.80, a far cry from some of the triple-digit payoffs we've seen in the Kentucky Derby (G1) over the last 20 years. There are several obvious factors for the discrepancy between the two races, but that doesn't mean there isn't value to be had at Pimlico.

On the contrary, there have been some healthy win payoffs in just the last 15 years alone: Shackleford (2011) paid $27.20, Oxbow (2013) $32.80, Cloud Computing (2017) $28.80, Swiss Skydiver (2020) $25.40, Rombauer ($25.60), and Seize the Grey (2024) $21.60.

There isn't really a common thread linking those six longer-priced winners, other than they were in the right place at the right time. Who among Saturday's group has a chance of being in the same position, hoping to topple heavy favorite Journalism?

Given the amount of casual money the Preakness win pool has tended to attract in recent years (only one horse has started at more than 20-1 in the past four editions), #9 Gosger (20-1) is likely overpriced on the morning line. But he still figures to offer attractive odds.

On paper, Gosger has a lot going for him. He's 2-for-3, his lone setback being a second in his debut over a too-short six furlongs. He's won both his interim starts at a mile or longer, including the April 12 Lexington (G3) at Keeneland by a widening two lengths in his stakes debut.

While his speed ratings suggest he has some improving to do to be in the Preakness frame, Gosger undoubtedly has the scope to do so. He's in good hands with trainer Brendan Walsh, who enjoyed an outstanding spring on the Kentucky circuit, and his stalk-and-pounce style figures to serve him well in a race seemingly loaded with pace. Additional distance is certain to suit.

Fans of pedigree will also find much to like about Gosger. By champion and Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, he is a half-sister to Harvey's Lil Goil, who peaked in the fall of her sophomore season, winning the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1). Also worth noting is that Gosger's dam, Gloria S, is a half-sister to 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I'll Have Another.

As a longer shot, Gosger offers plenty of appeal in the Preakness and will at minimum be used in my vertical exotic wagers.

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