The best longshot to bet in the 2026 Belmont Stakes

"Longshot" is a relative term in the $2 million Belmont (G1) at Saratoga on Saturday. The two longest prices in the market will be Vitruvian Man and Ottinho, neither of whom seriously contended in prior stakes attempts (though they did place).

The other likely double-digit prices are Powershift and Growth Equity. Powershift arguably underperformed in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but the leap from maiden win to classic success is a bit of a stretch. Growth Equity certainly remains with a high ceiling following his Peter Pan (G3) score, though he beat little that day and has never faced a field of this quality.

If not them, then the choice comes down to deciding between Commandment and Emerging Market, both of whom were pegged at 6-1 on the morning line. Commandment was my top selection in the Kentucky Derby (G1), and though he can perhaps be excused for the dull try off fast wins in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1), I'm not getting the sense he will return to his best. Note his last three riders chose to side with others here.

That leaves #8 Emerging Market (6-1) as the best longshot to bet in this Belmont. While he fared the worst of the Kentucky Derby starters in this field, finishing 10th, keep in mind he was racing closer to the hot pace than any of them in that closer-dominated race. He also reportedly lost a shoe, which might have affected how he finished in the final quarter mile.

Most of all, the Derby was only the third lifetime start for Emerging Market. A lot of "Derby Rules" have fallen by the wayside in this century, but the relative inexperience Emerging Market brought with him to Louisville was always going to be, and will continue to be, a tough hurdle.

Of course, you have to give Emerging Market credit for beating the eventual Derby winner, Golden Tempo, in the Louisiana Derby (G2) off a single previous start. It's evidence of his raw talent and an indication that he can step forward with a big effort here while facing a field only half the size of the Derby. Another plus is that in a relatively paceless race, like this one appears to be on paper, Emerging Market could get the jump on most of the leading contenders.

Emerging Market appears to be thriving coming into this 1 1/4-mile test. I very much like his chances to spring the mild upset.