The Everest: The search for opposition to Ka Ying Rising

The final auditions for The Everest (G1), the world’s richest turf race, are being held this weekend in Australia: the Danehill (G2) and Gilgai (G2) in Melbourne, and the Premiere (G2) in Sydney.

They are interesting races for players, but the big question is, can any of these races produce a local contender to make a race of it in the A$20 million ($13.2 million) six-furlong contest Oct. 18 with Hong Kong superstar Ka Ying Rising?

Sydney Race 7, 1:35 a.m. ET: Premiere Stakes (G2), 1,200 meters (about 6 furlongs)

• $10 win/$20 place: #2 Briasa ($30)
• $2 trifecta: 2, 6 with 1, 2, 6 with 1, 2, 4, 6 ($16)

The official World’s Best Racehorse Rankings rates Ka Ying Rising fifth-equal in the world, two pounds behind Ombudsman, while the arguably equally esteemed British assessors Timeform rate him at 135, five pounds ahead of Ombudsman. 

For comparison, Timeform rates Ka Ying Rising just one pound below the best sprinters this century – English speedster Battaash and the superstar Australian mare Black Caviar, unbeaten in 25 starts. And that’s without him being extended – despite a series of track-record efforts at Sha Tin.

Some may be sceptical about this rating, but Hong Kong sprinters have been near-impossible to beat in their own international sprints, and on occasions – notably with Little Bridge at Royal Ascot in 2012 – they have beaten the best in Europe as well. 

Ka Ying Rising also has a solid international form line through Japan’s Satono Reve; after being well beaten by Ka Ying Rising twice in Hong Kong, Satono Reve was just a half-length away from beating Lazzat in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot this year.

Now, Ka Ying Rising heads to a land known as a haven for turf sprinters: Australia. On form, he is a worthy favorite for the Everest, held at Randwick racecourse in Sydney. But it won’t be easy. Though Australia lacks a sprinting superstar at present, it’s worth noting that the Australian mare Asfoora has been good enough to win Group 1 sprints in England the past two years, despite being unable to win in six attempts at the highest level in her homeland.

The Everest is a 12-horse slot race, using the format pioneered but subsequently abandoned by the Pegasus World Cup. The withdrawal through injury this week of Skybird means four slots are still to be filled – slots held by Godolphin, Coolmore, Australian auction house Inglis, and newcomer Mulberry Racing, owned by Australian tech billionaire Michael Gregg.

The Danehill, for three-year-olds, looks the least likely to produce an Everest candidate, bar possibly Godolphin’s Tentyris, and his main chance would be if Godolphin decides against running their more proven Everest contenders Beiwacht and Tempted. 

The Gilgai, however, has a potential contender in War Machine, running for the first time since winning the seven-furlong Stradbroke (G1) in Brisbane in June. His best form is at seven furlongs, but a strong effort in this race would put him on the radar for slot-holders.

The Premiere market is dominated by horses that have already secured slots: Group 1 winners Jimmystar, Briasa, and Private Harry. The latter was unbeaten as a three-year-old last season but disappointed when fifth on resuming in The Shorts (G2) Sept. 20, his first race against older horses, though he wasn’t helped by missing the start.

Jimmystar, like War Machine, is probably best at seven furlongs and is likely to need a strong pace to win this weekend. So if you want to play the Everest previews this weekend, it may be best to focus on Briasa, a very good second in The Shorts.

Whether any of them will suggest they can test Ka Ying Rising, who has arrived in Australia and had his first Sydney gallop this week, is another question.