The Jury: Bets and Fades for Feb. 26

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, is back this week with thoughts on this weekend's action, including the Saudi Cup (G1) and Rebel (G2) cards.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #11 Natalie's Charm in Saturday's $100,000 Wintergreen S. at Turfway Park. The four-year-old filly brings improving form to her initial stakes appearance, crushing a solid group of allowance foes over the track and distance in mid-January, and she projects to sit a perfect stalking trip before making her presence felt in the stretch. Along with registering one of the top last-out Brisnet Speed ratings (86) last time, Natalie's Charm will be making her third start off the layoff for Tommy Drury Jr., who strikes at a 31% rate from a small sample. Natalie's Charm is listed at an enticing 15-1 on the morning line.

Kellie Reilly: The price will be woefully short, but #3 Secret Oath (3-2) should extend her winning streak in the Honeybee (G3). I'm hoping that the Arrogate filly romps again, and if she posts a time faster than the Rebel (G2), might she try the boys? After all, she is Triple Crown-nominated. What a storyline it would be for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas to come up with another sensational filly at this stage of his career.

Vance Hanson: Given his fondness for the track and his inherent class, I'd give #9 Mishriff (9-2) a big shot at repeating in the Saudi Cup (G1). American bettors are likely to overlook him a bit with more familiar foes like Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon (among others) in the lineup, but that could potentially be a big mistake. His post-Saudi form from last year stands up remarkably well on all counts, with soft turf generally proving his undoing in his more disappointing tries. He still looks the class of this field.

RELATED: Recent Trends in the Rebel Stakes

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #2 Newgrange in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park. The Violence colt ran big when dictating tempo in his first two outings, but Newgrange was all out to win the Southwest (G3) after being forced to track Kavod during the early stages. That rival drew inside him again in the Rebel, and with possible speed to his outside, Newgrange appears vulnerable in my estimation.

KR: Although my skepticism about Newgrange ultimately proved wrong in the Southwest (G3), it looked pretty much right for most of the race. I'll be incorrigible, dig in my heels, and take another stand against him in the Rebel. Maybe it's foolish to oppose a Bob Baffert hotpot here, but he faces a more challenging set-up from post 2 with the speedy Kavod on the rail. His Southwest victims Barber Road, Ben Diesel, and Dash Attack are eligible to take a step forward, and stakes newbie Chasing Time could be a danger. In fact, I'd hoped that Baffert would have entered McLaren Vale in the Rebel rather than the undercard allowance (the seventh race).

VH: Given my enthusiasm for Mishriff in the Saudi Cup (noted above), it's easy, then, to suggest fading the more prominent American shippers that will offer less value. The biggest of them, of course, is #7 Mandaloun, who earlier this week was awarded the victory in the 2021 Kentucky Derby (G1). A very good horse, obviously, but he showed throughout his three-year-old campaign that he's hardly immune to being out-finished at a short price.

What else is worth noting?

JS: Excited to see how Mandaloun fares in the $20 million Saudi Cup. Following an outstanding win in the Jan. 22 Louisiana S. (G3), Mandaloun appears set for a big four-year-old campaign, and the Saudi Cup will provide a stiff class test. A victory would fuel anticipation for future matchups against Life Is Good, who is headed to Dubai World Cup (G1) next month.

KS: I've been focused on the Saudi Cup card all week, with race previews on Brisnet.com and a blog here on TwinSpires Edge highlighting price horses of interest in all the Thoroughbred stakes. If #10 Real World (20-1) transfers his high-class turf game to dirt, he could win the world's richest race for the old-school Godolphin team of Saeed bin Suroor and Frankie Dettori.

VH: There are a couple horses on the Saudi Cup undercard that might be worth using in exotics, or as flyers in the win pool. In Race 1, the Neom Turf Cup (G3), #5 Grocer Jack (20-1) debuts for William Haggas after bringing the equivalent of more than $1 million at auction late last year. Although a bit win shy, his form the last two seasons has been quite consistent. His most honorable defeat surely was his 1 1/2-length third in the 2020 German Derby (G1) behind In Swoop, who later finished a close second in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1), and 2021 Arc winner Torquator Tasso. In Race 3, the Red Sea H. (G3), #5 Dubai Future (12-1) is reunited with jockey Pat Cosgrave, who's guided the six-year-old to some of his better runs on turf in the past year. He's seemingly better than what he showed in his recent Dubai prep off a two-week turnaround.