Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem April 30, 2026

A good Thursday morning to you all! Kentucky Derby weekend is finally upon us and as weird as it sounds, it always feels like a bit of exhalation and calm before the storm. 

I take Thursdays off, so I always feel kind of refreshed coming into Oaks and Derby Day. This year here at Tampa, we’re all very excited because we have had some nice horses come through here this season that have real shots at winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1). 

Renegade figures to be the favorite, or certainly a top-two choice in the big one, and I think he’s deserving of that role, given just how consistently good he’s been. The thing I noticed most about him was how well he finished in the last sixteenth of a mile in the Sam F. Davis S. Through my binoculars it looked like it was going to be a very close race. Then in a flash he was just running away from everyone. Obviously we all saw that kick with the elongated distance in the Arkansas Derby (G1). 

I always say giving out picks in advance is kind of dumb because really we should always be gauging the horses we like with the prices we’re getting. Price is more important than the pick. But for the Kentucky Derby I always like to make an exception because it is fun to have a “pick.” 

My pick this year is Emerging Market, who we saw debut at Tampa on Sam F. Davis Day about an hour before Renegade won the big one. I remember after Emerging Market won talking to our television department guys and saying “We might see both of those horses in the Kentucky Derby,” discussing Emerging Market and Powershift, who he beat. Well, we’re seeing one of them! I think Emerging Market might have the most talent of anyone in the race and although he’s giving up some seasoning to the rest of the field, I’m hoping he takes another step forward at a bit of a price in the Kentucky Derby. 

My Derby picks are: 

Emerging Market

Renegade

The Puma

For the Kentucky Oaks I’m going with Meaning. Going back and watching the replays from the Oaks prep races, it seemed like a lot of them were just the top two getting away in a battle and one edging away from the other. And many were slow-paced. But I thought Meaning was around a solid pace and looked good and might be a little bit of a price. So I’m going with her over Counting Stars and Search Party as a price underneath.  

I wish you lots of good scores and memories for the weekend. We only get so many Derbies in our lifetime and if you’re a lover of racing, they are truly highlight days in our game. So hopefully we get some memorable performances and maybe a correct opinion or two. And good weather too! 

Best of luck!