Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem Feb. 5, 2026

A good Thursday morning to you all! Gearing up here for a big weekend at Tampa Bay Downs including the Sam F. Davis, which headlines a big 11-race card Saturday. Some promising names are showing up for this Road to the Kentucky Derby points race including Renegade, who was second to Paladin in the Remsen (G2) last fall. It’s a good group of nine and caps off a card filled with excellent undercard stakes and maiden races that include debut runners from the top barns like Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, and more.

The undercard feature, the Suncoast, serves as the final dirt prep for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Tampa Bay Downs, with the Florida Oaks being run on turf next month. The ungraded stakes offers a purse of $125,000 and 42 qualifying points (20-10-6-4-2 scale) for the Kentucky Oaks, so it’s not that most lucrative on the grand scale of points races. However this little race has produced some really big performances and been a springboard for top three year-old fillies in recent years. 

My first year here at Tampa Bay Downs was 2021-2022 and the first edition I called was the 2022 Suncoast Stakes, which featured none other than Nest, who used the mile and 40-yard race as the starting point for a three year-old campaign that included several Grade 1 wins and ultimately the Eclipse Award for champion three year-old filly. Todd Pletcher trained Nest and is employing similar tactics this year with probably favorite Zany, who like Nest won the Demoiselle (G2) smartly in advance of her trip to Tampa for the Suncoast Stakes. 

In 2023, the Suncoast was slated to be a showdown between champion two-year-old filly Wonder Wheel and Demoiselle winner Julia Shining for Pletcher, who appears to like pointing Demoiselle winners to the Suncoast every chance he gets. But what was billed, at least on paper, to be a match race between Wonder Wheel and Julia Shining ended up being an upset, as Dreaming of Snow and Samy Camacho stole the race on the front end at 38-1. 

The following year saw Pletcher back with, you guessed it, the Demoiselle winner in the Suncoast! He sent out Life Talk, the 2-5 favorite, but it would be Power Squeeze who recorded a minor upset. Power Squeeze went onto win the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga that summer and made more than $1 million in her career! 

Last year, La Cara got an easy lead when favored Her Laugh broke poorly and led gate to wire in the Suncoast. She preceded to win a pair of Grade 1s last year, the Ashland at Keeneland and Acorn at Saratoga. 

Even though it’s not a graded stakes, the Suncoast is one of the races I look forward to most each season. And with Zany and Life of Joy headlining this year’s event, will it be another big name winner, or another Dreaming of Snow type upset? We’ll find out Saturday!