Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem July 23, 2026

A good Thursday morning to you all. Hope everyone is staying dry out there as it seems a big chunk of us here on the East Coast got nailed with a ton of rain the last couple of days. As someone who grew up out west, I’ll never understand having rain in the summertime. Just strange!

One thing rain in the summer creates is steamy air and I wanted to write this week about “steam” at the racetrack. If you don’t know, steam is a term for when a horse who’s coming up to a race, often the career debut, who has a lot of buzz or people think might win. There are various levels and intensity of steam as well. Sometimes it can be as little as “I heard this horse can run a little bit” and as severe as “this horse is going to win easy.” I’d say the most common one I’ve heard over the years is “the connections really like this horse.”

I often joke that if I hear steam on a horse, everyone has heard it. I’m not too plugged into the backside and my friends who are bettors aren’t calling me to give me to tout a horse or provide some steam. So if the steam gets to me, I can assume everyone has gotten word and the price will be very low on the odds board. 

This past week at Colonial I got some gentle steam from someone on the backstretch about a first-time starter. It was what I’d call soft steam, basically saying “I’ve heard that horse can run a little bit.” Now in 20 years of announcing, I’ve bet on two races that I’ve announced and that was back in like 2007, so I’m not running to the window on any races when working, steam or no steam. But I made a mental note of it as the horse was going to the gate at odds of 20-1. Wouldn’t you know it, the horse took the lead in midstretch and drew off to win by nine lengths! At 20-1! Somebody out there must have made some money on that steam! 

I told a buddy after the fact about the steam horse and we were discussing how often do people really take steam seriously and go to the window? And how often is it simply hot air? I’m sure it depends on the connections, but I’d say overall they miss just as often as they hit. Probably more so. There’s been many times I remember over the years when a steam horse ran well but didn’t win. They were right about some ability, but it just didn’t translate into a win. There’s also been many times when I’ve seen a steam horse run up the track. 

This is why I find it confusing when people hammer first timers that have some steam down to even money or less. I mean on a 20-1 shot like the one at Colonial, you can be wrong a whole lot of times and still be profitable if you hit one like that on occasion. But having to be right over 50% of the time to eek out a profit, especially with unproven horses, seems near impossible. I think a lot of players attack these types of horses because they prefer to be right than to make good bets or make money. Ego above getting paid. And I get that, it’s fun to be right and I think there are some bragging rights to be had when you tout a first timer. But it can’t be a road to betting riches at short prices. 

With all the big two-year-old races at Saratoga this weekend, I’m sure there will be some steam going around at the track and online. Choose wisely!