Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem July 24, 2025

A good Thursday morning to you all! I was talking last night with someone about recency bias when it comes to horses. We see it A LOT during the Triple Crown trail when a horse wins one race and we talk about him like he’s the big Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite to be. Then a week later someone wins another prep and we repeat the pattern for many weeks leading up to early April when the prep season finishes up. 

For a definition, recency bias is essentially giving undue weight to recent events. It’s vital to be aware of this in horse racing because some of our opinions will be affected by recency bias, but so will the opinions of others we’re betting against. The most recent past performance line will always get more weight placed on it than previous efforts, especially as we go further and further down a horse's past performance page. And it makes sense that what the horse has done most recently will be the best indication of what we see today. Of course, a bad trip or just a dull effort from a horse in the most recent start may not be indicative of his or her real ability. 

Last weekend we saw a wonderful effort from Journalism in the Haskell (G1). He was able to reel in some quality horses in the final yards and earn another Grade 1 victory for what’s been a remarkable 2025 for him. I saw some people on Twitter even exclaim that he was the frontrunner for the three year-old champion Eclipse Award. It’s natural for us to be biased to something we just saw, especially when it came with the exciting finish the Haskell provided in front of a huge crowd. 

For a definition, recency bias is essentially giving undue weight to recent events. It’s vital to be aware of this in horse racing because some of our opinions will be affected by recency bias, but so will the opinions of others we’re betting against. The most recent past performance line will always get more weight placed on it than previous efforts, especially as we go further and further down a horse's past performance page. And it makes sense that what the horse has done most recently will be the best indication of what we see today. Of course, a bad trip or just a dull effort from a horse in the most recent start may not be indicative of his or her real ability. 

Last weekend we saw a wonderful effort from Journalism in the Haskell (G1). He was able to reel in some quality horses in the final yards and earn another Grade 1 victory for what’s been a remarkable 2025 for him. I saw some people on Twitter even exclaim that he was the frontrunner for the three year-old champion Eclipse Award. It’s natural for us to be biased to something we just saw, especially when it came with the exciting finish the Haskell provided in front of a huge crowd.