Thursday Thoughts with Jason Beem June 4, 2026

A good Thursday morning to you all! Belmont weekend upon us and over the years this day has continued to grow, becoming one of the biggest days of the year to many people. I think this year’s races, including the Belmont (G1), are some of the more interesting ones that I can remember in recent years, so I’m truly excited to talk about it. We did a full preview on the Wednesday edition of my podcast of the Belmont Stakes and on the Thursday show we talked about the undercard as well as Kellie Reilly joining us to talk about some of the international shippers at Saratoga. Both worth a listen in my opinion (shameless plug!)

I was a little surprised when I saw Chief Wallabee listed as the 3-1 second choice, but David Aragona is a morning line maker I have immense respect for. So I went back and watched the Kentucky Derby (G1) replay, including the overhead shot, and all of a sudden I felt like he was going to be my top pick. He looked on several occasions like he was full of horse and full of run and just never got a chance to really do any running until it was too late. I know a lot of people have said Commandment had trouble and maybe he’s the ‘trip horse’ coming out of the Derby, but for me it’s Chief Wallabee.  

Renegade obviously ran incredibly well in the Kentucky Derby and rightfully should go favored in the Belmont Stakes. I’ll say the same thing now that I said about him in the Kentucky Derby. He might very well be the best horse in this group, and he definitely seems like the most reliable. I’ve seen some people diminish the trouble he had from the rail post in the Derby by saying that he kind of ended up early on where he was going to end up anyways. While that might be true, I don’t know how you discount him getting slammed with a wall of horses coming in on him, all while doing that with 100,000 screaming people watching. It was still trouble and he overcame it to run well. But he’s going to be a super short price, so I think I’d try to beat him again in this spot. 

Emerging Market was my top pick in the Kentucky Derby and I’m going to put him second in the Belmont. I didn’t love his trip as it seemed like he was boxed in and just in tight spots throughout much of the race. He didn’t fully pack it in late after all that and I just think there’s so much talent there. His debut race at Tampa was probably the most impressive debut I’ve ever called by a horse and I think if he gets a trip more similar to the one he had in the Louisiana Derby, then he could be very tough. 

Golden Tempo was made 9-2 on the morning line as the third choice and I do wonder how much winning the Derby and name recognition will carry him in the pools, versus people who think he might not get the setup he got in the Derby. I will be shocked if he doesn’t come with his late run and at least make things interesting. He should be starting to peak and some of his more immature races (that late shift in in the Louisiana Derby) are now a couple starts behind him. The setup will certainly be a question mark as there isn’t a lot of high end early pace projected in this group. 

So for me, the picks are as follows: 

1. Chief Wallabee
2. Emerging Market
3. Renegade
4. Golden Tempo

Nothing too profound or original, just kind of how I see it playing out. I hope you all have a great Belmont weekend and pick a few winners!