Tipsheet: 2026 Sam F. Davis Stakes

A nice field of nine three-year-old colts will travel 1 1/16 miles over the Tampa Bay Downs main oval in Saturday’s $250,000 Sam F. Davis S. The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series contest will reward the top five across the wire with qualifying points on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis. 

Sam F. Davis Stakes Picks

• #1 Confessional
• #6 Renegade
• #3 The Puma

Sam F. Davis Stakes Wagers

• $20 win #1 Confessional
• $10 exacta box 1-6

Sam F. Davis Stakes Contenders

#1 CONFESSIONAL: Brad Cox pupil was a fine debut winner at Keeneland prior to finishing second to Holy Bull (G3) romper Nearly in an allowance tilt at Gulfstream Park in his latest endeavor. The $160,000 son of Essential Quality will race with blinkers off for the initial time in his stakes bow, and I expect the sophomore to take a big step forward in his second run off the layoff. Flavien Prat comes in to ride my top choice. 

#2 EPIC DESIRE: First of two from the Pletcher shedrow graduated on the oval in his fifth lifetime run most recently and takes a class hike on this day. The bay son of Uncle Mo is going in the right direction, but he will need a pretty big step forward to challenge this cast in the stretch with Samy Camacho in the irons. 

#3 THE PUMA: Chestnut son of Essential Quality checked in a very good second in a seven-furlong debut at Gulfstream and intrigues on the stretch out for his second appearance. The $150,000 juvenile buy is bred to handle the distance, and he could be dangerous late if he receives a sensible voyage throughout the event. I expect Javier Castellano to have the contender forwardly placed from the break. 

#4 GAME FOR IT: Chad Summers pupil was a smart debut winner at Aqueduct in December when going postward at 4-5 odds and seemingly has a bright future. The Known Agenda colt has recorded just a trio of morning drills leading up to his stakes bow, and he might need this one off the shelf. Luis Rivera, Jr. retains the mount atop the interesting prospect. 

#5 OCELLI: Connect colt is still a maiden after a trio of races to begin his career and will run with blinkers on for the second time. The Whit Beckman pupil surely has some ability, but I don’t love his chances against this field. Joseph Ramos will pilot the late runner. 

#6 RENEGADE: Prime contender capped his three-race juvenile season with a clear second in the deep Remsen (G2) for conditioner Todd Pletcher. The $975,000 son of Into Mischief has improved his Brisnet Speed rating in every career outing to date, and the bay has also trained forwardly in advance of his three-year-old debut, as well. Irad Ortiz, Jr. opts to ride the talented Triple Crown prospect. 

#7 WAYNE’S LAW: Stakes-winning son of Tiz the Law has never run a bad one and could be a sleeper in his seasonal debut for Amador Sanchez. The colt has a nice foundation under him and comes in with five morning moves as of late, so fitness will not be an issue for the sophomore. Marcos Meneses has the assignment. 

#8 MAX CAPACITY: Richard Sillaman trainee was 11 lengths back in the Mucho Macho Man S. at Gulfstream Park in his first run going a route of ground, and he has also finished unplaced in four of his prior five stakes tries, too. Others in the group have more appeal to me. 

#9 DR. KAPUR: Speedy son of McKinzie dueled on the lead before giving way late in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in his 2025 finale. The homebred did flash good potential prior to that effort, and he is training well in the interim, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix turning for home for trainer Saffie Joseph. Samuel Marin will be in the stirrups.