Value play in Breeders' Cup Classic Future Wager

We are about a month away from the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland, and this weekend offers the second opportunity for bettors to get down on their early opinions in the Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Wager.

Since the Triple Crown, the consensus among pundits is that no one in this year’s three-year-old class appears quick enough to win the Classic against what is a stellar, top-heavy group of older horses. Unless Further Ado bolts up, like he tends to do at Keeneland, I would agree with that assessment.

That leaves us with arguably four main contenders among the older set. Defending titlist Forever Young, the morning line favorite at 5-2, is deserving of that accolade and should come on from his final prep victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) over a deep, tiring surface. That price might go lower if there are notable defections from the Classic over the next several weeks, so fans of his might want to lock in at that price.

Sovereignty perhaps would be the horse to beat in most circumstances but missed the Gold Cup after developing an abscess. Although he returned to the worktab this week, almost everything will have to go right for him between now and Oct. 31 to be assured the opportunity to start.

Knightsbridge, like Sovereignty a runner for Godolphin and Bill Mott, seems more like insurance in the event Sovereignty can’t make it to the gate. Notwithstanding impressive wins in the Monmouth Cup (G3) and the Pacific Classic (G1), Knightsbridge arguably has more to find against the talent level the Classic will attract, especially over 1 1/4 miles. In the end, connections might opt to run him in the Dirt Mile (G1) if Sovereignty is well and good.

That leaves us with #7 Magnitude (10-1) as an intriguing alternative. Draw a line through his two appearances at Saratoga, both of which were sub-par, and Magnitude has shown to possess both the speed and talent to win the Classic at a decent price.

Magnitude has beaten both Forever Young and Sovereignty this season, a plus in his favor. And though both were done in gate-to-wire fashion, Magnitude has shown several times the ability to stalk closely and pounce, an option should the Classic attract a plethora of other speed types.

Outside Saratoga, Magnitude has consistently shown to be one of the fastest and most accomplished members of his generation. He looks the value play in the Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Wager.