2025 Kentucky Derby Day spot plays

In addition to the Kentucky Derby (G1), the Saturday program at Churchill Downs offers a plethora of intriguing graded stakes, most of which have no short-priced stickouts.

Here are four mid-priced runners I have an interest in before the big one.

Race 6: Pat Day Mile (G2), 1:53 p.m. ET

#5 Gate to Wire (6-1) was not a good fit for the two-turn Fountain of Youth (G2) when last seen, but he absolutely fits this one-turn race. 

A versatile talent with success on both turf and dirt, Gate to Wire turned in a visually impressive victory two starts back in the Swale S. at Gulfstream. Granted, the pace in front of him was obscene and he made the most of it, but the fractions project to be quick here, too, if not to the same degree. He's a class horse who figures to trip out well over a distance he should handle.

Race 7: Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2), 2:38 p.m. ET

One thing to glean from the past performances of #6 Run Carson (6-1) is that he's tended to run below par over Keeneland's turf course. That, and the fact he was returning from a four-month layoff, means I'll be cutting him slack for his midpack finish in last month's Shakertown (G2).

Besides the Keeneland flop, Run Carson enjoyed a strong campaign last season at three, punctuated by a quick allowance win over this course in November when he overcame some early trouble. He also beat Coppola, who flattered the form multiple times at Gulfstream over the winter and is re-opposing here. 

Run Carson is an improving horse who looks poised to have another productive year, starting over a course he obviously likes.

Race 8: Churchill Downs (G1), 3:23 p.m. ET

#11 Mullikin (7-2) owns two daylight wins in as many starts over this main track and developed into one of the nation's top sprinters last summer. He didn't quite show as much as the lukewarm favorite in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), but he's really a seven-furlong specialist more than a six-furlong one, and that point was validated further when he tired late in an otherwise strong effort behind Locked in the Cigar Mile (G2). This is a tough field, but he should be formidable if ready to go following a winter break.

Race 11: Turf Classic (G1), 5:39 p.m. ET

Trainer Chad Brown has won four of the past six editions of this race but is unlikely to have the post-time favorite this time, given that two of his entrants ran below par in the Muniz Memorial (G2) last out. That race had a wacky result, with 86-1 longshot Idratherbeblessed leading all the way after setting a slow pace.

#4 Redistricting (10-1) certainly didn't run to his ability that day, but he's worth a look here if the price lingers in the upper single digits at least. His start-and-stop career is a macro concern, but his two runs last fall in the Knickerbocker (G3) and Seabiscuit H. (G2) both hinted at better things to come, and he certainly had no luck trip-wise in the latter Del Mar fixture. This isn't the deepest renewal of the Turf Classic that we've seen in recent years, thus it's one he's eligible to win.

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