Betting with, and against, Ka Ying Rising in the Everest

In many ways, the $13.1 million Everest is all about one horse: #1 Ka Ying Rising (3-5).

KA YING RISING – WITH

• $4 Trifecta: 1 with 2,4,9 with 2,4,5,9,12 ($48)

KA YING RISING – AGAINST

• $1 Trifecta: 2,9 with 1,2,4,9 with 1,2,4,5,9,12 ($24)
• $2 to show on #3 Overpass ($2)

The New Zealand-bred is the world’s highest-rated sprinter in the Longines International Rankings, two pounds off the very top. According to British assessors Timeform, there’s no “sprinter” qualification – they consider him the best horse in the world, period, by four pounds.

He’s earned this ranking through a series of outstanding wins in top races in Hong Kong. There is a very good international form benchmark available in the form of Japan’s Satono Reve, who finished more than two lengths behind Ka Ying Rising in the Chairman’s Sprint Prize (G1) in Hong Kong in April before being beaten by half a length by Lazzat in the Jubilee (G1) at Royal Ascot.

In this race alone, Ka Ying Rising is rated nine pounds ahead of any of his opponents, so at standard weight-for-age over six furlongs, his opponents have a huge task ahead of them.

So why consider betting against him in the world’s richest turf race, barring price? There are two major reasons.

Firstly, this is Ka Ying Rising’s first race outside Hong Kong. He trialled well in Sydney two weeks ago – though some doubted how impressive it was – but you never know for sure how well a horse handles an overseas journey until the evidence is before you.

Secondly, no country produces better turf sprinters than Australia. Since Australian sprinters first started heading to Europe in 2003, they’ve won more than a dozen Group 1 sprints there. This year, Australian mare Asfoora – unable to win at the Group 1 level in seven attempts in her homeland – won the Nunthorpe (G1) and the Prix de l’Abbaye (G1) in Europe.

Admittedly, Asfoora’s ability to win in her homeland is restricted by the fact that she’s something of a specialist at five furlongs, whereas most top Australian sprints are six furlongs. But the fact that this European Group 1 winner is not outstanding in her homeland emphasises the quality of Australian sprinters – and therefore the magnitude of the task Ka Ying Rising faces in The Everest.

So if not Ka Ying Rising, then who? The primary opponents look to be #9 Joliestar (15-2) and #2 Briasa (14-1), winners of the two main Sydney lead-ups, the Shorts (G2) and the Premiere (G2).

Joliestar won the Shorts despite being wide most of the way. She was ridden very quietly in a subsequent trial but will be ready, with the services of top jockey James McDonald.

Briasa was beaten in the Shorts but improved in the Premiere. Unlike Joliestar, he has a major victory at this trip at Randwick, having won the TJ Smith (G1) in April. He isn’t helped with barrier 10, but is probably good enough to overcome it.

If the pace is very strong, #4 Jimmystar (11-1) and #5 War Machine (10-1) could be chances. Three-year-olds often run well, so #12 Tempted (16-1) should be considered, while other chances to get some of the money include #10 Lady Shenandoah (14-1) and, potentially for real odds, #3 Overpass (48-1).

Whether you want to go with or against Ka Ying Rising, it will be a fascinating contest. Don’t forget the Everest Carnival Bankroll Builder for some Bonus Bet options.