Betting With, and Against, Mindframe in the Churchill Downs Stakes

An excellent field of 11 will travel seven furlongs on the famed main oval in Louisville in Saturday’s lucrative, $1 million Churchill Downs S. (G1).

Todd Pletcher’s lightly raced but ultra-talented #7 Mindframe (3-1) is the morning-line choice in the deep cast with regular pilot Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the stirrups. 

Mindframe – With

• $4 Trifecta: 7 with 10,11 with 2,3,4,10,11 ($32)
• $1 Superfecta: 7 with 2,10,11 with 2,10,11 with 2,3,4,10,11 ($24)

Mindframe – Against

• $2 Trifecta: 10,11 with 7,10,11 with 2,3,4,7,10,11 ($32)
• $1 Superfecta: 10,11 with 7,10,11 with 2,7,10,11 with 2,3,4,7,10,11 ($24)

The $600,000 yearling purchase had an excellent, albeit brief, three-year-old campaign. He won his first two races by a combined 20 1/2 lengths, prior to registering strong runner-up results in the Belmont S. (G1) and Haskell S. (G1) to conclude 2024. The Maryland-bred is immensely talented and seems poised to have a big four-year-old season after kicking off 2025 with a convincing, 1 1/4-length tally in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) on March 1. Mindframe drilled a bullet half-mile at Palm Beach Downs last week and will have no trouble cutting back to seven furlongs on Saturday. 

I’m not sure which runner will establish the early tempo in the field without a confirmed front runner, although I surely expect the exciting #10 Nysos (4-1) to be involved early off the long layoff for Bob Baffert. The Nyquist colt is 3-for-3 by a combined 26 1/4 lengths in his lifetime, and while he has been off for 15 months leading up to the dash, a big performance from him is expected beneath Flavien Prat. 

#11 Mullikin (7-2) was the morning-line favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) at Del Mar when finishing a commendable third for Bill Mott. Grade-1 winning son of Violence dons a 5-3-2-0 mark at today’s distance, he is 2-for-2 beneath the Twin Spires, and the consistently excellent five-year-old also runs well while fresh. He’s a must-use under Luis Saez.

HANSON: 2025 Kentucky Derby Day spot plays

#2 Banishing (5-1) has been in fantastic form as of late for conditioner David Jacobson. A winner of the Oaklawn Mile S. (G3) two back, the gelding finished a clear second behind the impressive First Mission at nine furlongs in his latest venture, and I feel that the cut back in trip will aid the chestnut. He will likely be asked for run from the outset beneath Jose Ortiz. 

Grade 1 victor #3 Book’em Dano (8-1) and Malibu S. (G1) third #4 Giant Mischief (8-1) are no slouches, either, and will be added to my vertical plays.

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