Handicapping All-Stakes Pick 5 at Keeneland April 4, 2026

The first of five graded stakes at Keeneland Saturday, the Commonwealth (G3) begins an All-Stakes Pick 5 that concludes with the $1.25 million Blue Grass (G1), a major qualifier for the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Short-priced horses loom large in the three main track races. I’ll take a stand against an expected favorite in the Appalachian (G2), utilizing five runners in the one-mile turf affair, and will also spread in the Shakertown (G2) for turf sprinters.

Wager

• $0.50 All-Stakes Pick 5 ticket (Races 7-11): 1,7 with 1,5,7,8,10 with 5 with 1,8,9,11,12 with 4,6 ($50)

Analysis

Race 7 – Commonwealth (G3)

#7 Saudi Crown (8-5), a convincing winner in his lone start at Keeneland, exits a sharp comeback triumph at Oaklawn Park for Brad Cox and his speed should play well in the seven-furlong race. #1 Be You (7-2) appears to be rounding into top form for Todd Pletcher, recording a convincing win in the seven-furlong Toboggan S. at Aqueduct, and will be running late with John Velazquez.

Race 8 – Appalachian (G2)

Will stand against morning line favorite Sister Troienne, who must regroup after coughing up a clear lead and finishing second at odds-on in the Herecomesthebride (G3) at Gulfstream. Up-and-coming #8 Lion Lake (9-2), who upset Sister Troienne last out, will be used along with her stablemate #10 Imaginationlady (7-2), winner of the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland last fall for Brendan Walsh. 

#5 Kokomotion (6-1) looks poised to run well in her second stakes race. Grade 3 winner #7 Just Aloof (10-1), unbeaten from two starts, and late-running #1 Spirit Doll (15-1) will be included.

Race 9 – Madison (G1)

#5 Grand Job (2-1) has raced sparingly since being imported to the U.S. in 2024, winning three of five starts prior to this year, and I liked her comeback effort in Inside Information (G2) in late January, earning a 108 Brisnet Speed rating for the 2 3/4-length decision. She appears to be coming on at age six for Bill Mott and will be singled.

Race 10 – Shakertown (G2)

Grade 2 winner #9 No Nay Hudson (15-1) likes Keeneland and the 5 1/2-furlong distance and offers some appeal at an expected price. But I will use four other runners in the competitive affair: last-out stakes winner #2 My Boy Prince (6-1), multiple Gulfstream turf sprint stakes winner #8 Litigation (4-1), multiple Fair Grounds turf sprint stakes winner #12 Usually Wrong (9-2), and #11 Joe Sheisty (8-1), who exits back-to-back stakes wins at Turfway Park and finished a neck third in the Woodford (G2) at Keeneland last fall.

Race 11 – Blue Grass (G1)

A major qualifier awarding a combined 200 points to the top five (100-50-25-15-10 scale), the Blue Grass attracted juvenile Grade 2 winner #6 Further Ado (8-5), who returned this year with a close second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and broke his maiden by a 20-length margin at Keeneland last fall. He owns the tactical ability to race up close to the projected speed #4 Reagan’s Honor (5-2), and I’ll use the main contenders in the 1 1/8-mile race.