How to bet the 2026 Dubai World Cup undercard

The races on Dubai World Cup day are normally among the most competitive in world racing, with horses from around the world making their way to the United Arab Emirates.

However, in part because of the Middle East war, the races are a little leaner than usual. Japanese horses in particular seem to be in smaller numbers, and the depth isn’t what it could be. The Sheema Classic (G1), in particular, has only six runners.

One of the other factors is the presence of some notable horses; as a result, three of the eight thoroughbred races have odds-on morning line favorites, while none of the others have favorites at longer than 5-2. 

So, which favorites are worth opposing, and which are worth anchoring? Let’s have a look at some options for playing the thoroughbred races outside the World Cup (G1) and UAE Derby (G2).

Race 2, 8:20 a.m. ET: Godolphin Mile (G2), 1,600 meters (about 1 mile), dirt, open, $1 million

• $10 win/$30 show: #3 Mendelssohn Bay ($40)
• $1 Trifecta: 1, 3 with 1, 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9 ($20)

This isn’t the strongest renewal of the Godolphin Mile. Betting-wise, it’s likely to be dominated by former Saudi Derby winner #1 Commissioner King, following his four-length victory in the Burj Nahar (G3) Feb. 28.

But the race that might be key is the Firebreak Stakes on Jan. 23. That day, Commissioner King couldn’t hold off #3 Mendelssohn Bay. The time wasn’t as fast as the Burj Nahar, and Mendelssohn Bay failed at his next start, but that was at 1 1/4 miles. Back to a mile, Mendelssohn Bay looks a decent chance to score and is worth playing as the likely second favorite.

American runner #2 Banishing was out of the placing in his last two, but they were the Pegasus Gold Cup and Saudi Cup, so against weaker opposition and back in class, he looks right in this. Others for exotics include #4 Generous Tipper, #6 The Camden Colt, #7 David of Athens, and #9 Diamond Dealer.

Race 3, 8:55 a.m. ET: Dubai Gold Cup (G2), 3,200 meters (about 2 miles), turf, open, $1 million

• $20 win: #1 Al Riffa ($20)
  $2 Trifecta: 1 with 2, 4, 5 with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ($24)

The big favorite here is #1 Al Riffa, and it’s understandable why. The Irish St Leger winner has a clear advantage on ratings, and there were excuses for his last two efforts: a hot field, topweight, and a questionable ride when seventh in the 2-mile Melbourne Cup (G1), and a strong field and possibly shorter distance than ideal when fourth in the 1 1/2-mile Hong Kong Vase (G1).

The biggest doubt around Al Riffa is whether two miles is a little longer than he would like. But he rounded off the trip well in the Melbourne Cup when given too much to do, and in a field with 10 runners rather than 24, he looks hard to roll.

Al Riffa’s stablemate #5 Sons And Lovers has the advantage of being more seasoned, having won the Red Sea Turf Handicap (G2) on Saudi Cup day, but whether he can topple his stablemate at level weights is another question. #4 Caballo De Mar was a Group 1 winner in France and was probably over the top when failing last start; his biggest question marks are over class and whether he would want soft going.

Others with some hope include last year’s winner #3 Dubai Future (who, unlike last year, comes in without a prep race), fellow veteran #2 Al Nayyir, and the honest #6 Sunway.

Race 5, 10:20 a.m. ET: Al Quoz Sprint (G1), 1,200 meters (about 6 furlongs), turf, open, $1.5 million

• $10 win/$30 show: #2 Reef Runner ($40)
• $1 Trifecta: 1, 2 with 1, 2 with 3, 4, 7, 12, 13 ($10)

The first two from the 1351 Turf Sprint in Riyadh, #1 Lazzat and #2 Reef Runner, return to fight it out again. Despite Reef Runner being victorious on Saudi Cup day, Lazzat is the firm morning-line favorite again. This is probably due to Lazzat having to deal with being three-wide without cover in Riyadh, allowing the more patiently ridden Reef Runner to get the last run at him.

As mentioned when previewing the 1351 Turf Sprint, Lazzat is the better-performed of the pair, but he has an annoying habit of finding one better when heavily favored. So could it happen again?

Another potential factor is the reduction in distance of 1 1/2 furlongs, but both horses are well-performed at this trip. It will be Reef Runner’s first race on a straight course, but he strikes me as a horse that will enjoy it. Given the likely price difference, I’m supporting him again.

The top two look like the best prospects in the race, so I will focus on them for exotics. The most likely horses to fill the minor spots are Japan’s #3 Lugal, the veteran #4 Khaadem, the filly #12 Rayevka, the last-start winner #7 Native Approach, and the three-year-old #13 Northern Champion.

Race 6, 10:55 a.m. ET: Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), 1,200 meters (about six furlongs), dirt, open, $2 million

• $30 win: #1 Bentornato ($30)
• $1 Trifecta: 1 with 4, 6, 9 with 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 ($15)

The big favorite here is Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) winner #1 Bentornato. He hasn’t raced since his triumph at Del Mar, but he’s several pounds better than most of the horses in this race.

Bentornato showed last season that he doesn’t need racing to return to his best, and I think he’s a very good chance. I’d be surprised if he starts at anything like his morning-line odds of 5-2, but I am going to focus investments around him.

Last year’s winner #7 Dark Saffron finally found form again at his last start when second in the Mahab Al Shimaal (G3) to #4 El Nasseeb, who’s also going to be a decent chance. Others to consider for exotics are Malibu (G1) runner-up #6 Midland Money, Breeders’ Cup Sprint contestants #8 Nakatomi and #9 American Stage, and the veteran #2 Tuz, who should improve on his last start behind El Nasseeb.

Race 7, 11:35 a.m. ET: Dubai Turf (G1), 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles), turf, open, $5 million

• $30 win: #1 Ombudsman ($30)
• $2 Trifecta: 1 with 2, 5  with 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ($16)

Once again, we have a hotpot, this time in the form of #1 Ombudsman. On disclosed form, that’s fair enough: he was one of the best horses in Europe last year, and he’s rated 11 pounds better than any of his opponents here. The sole question is whether the Godolphin charge is totally ready for this – he did get beaten first-up last year.

However, I suspect the winner of the Prince of Wales’ Stakes (G1) and the Juddmonte International (G1) will be ready for a $5 million prize in front of his owners’ backyard, so the most likely way to make money here is from exotics.

Japan’s #2 Gaia Force competed well with that country’s leading miler Jantar Mantar last season and should go well here, as should Neom Turf Cup (G1) second-place finisher #5 Facteur Cheval, England’s #6 Fort George, and Sheikh Ahmed al Maktoum’s pair, #3 Quddwah and #4 Elnajmm.

Race 8, 12.10 p.m. ET: Dubai Sheema Classic (G1), 2,410 meters (about 1 1/2 miles), turf, open, $6 million

• $4 Trifecta: 1 with 2, 3 with 2, 3 ($16)
• $2 Trifecta: 1 with 2, 3 with 4, 5, 6 ($12)

Just six horses have paid up for this event, which unfortunately goes without the redoubtable Rebel’s Romance. It does, however, have the horse that topped the official world thoroughbred rankings last year, #1 Calandagan. Whether he was actually the best horse in the world is a matter for debate – a few ratings agencies felt Hong Kong sprinter Ka Ying Rising showed better form – but he was clearly the best turf horse in the world from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/2 miles.

One of his defeats last year was in this race, behind Japan’s Danon Decile, but he’s not here this year, and for once, there are no Japanese runners. There are two major international race winners here, though, in the form of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) hero #2 Ethical Diamond and the 2024 Hong Kong Vase (G1) winner #3 Giavellotto. As good as they are, however, they will need to improve to beat Calandagan.

I’m going to focus on trifectas, anchoring Calandagan and hoping one of the other three runners gets into third and spruces the payout up.