How to Play the Trans-Atlantic Classics

As was the case five weeks ago with the 2000 Guineas (G1) and the Kentucky Derby (G1), there are three-year-old classics on either side of the Atlantic this Saturday. 

Let’s have a look at potential plays for the two sophomore features this weekend.

Epsom, Race 5, 11:00 a.m. ET: Epsom Derby (G1), turf, 1 1/2 miles, three-year-old colts and fillies, $2.68 million

• $10 win/$30 show: #9 Item ($40)
• $1 Trifecta: 7,9 with 1,7,9,10 with 1,7,9,10,11,12 ($24) 

The Derby is almost always the more difficult of the two races, and this year is no exception. This is because the form is in the same state as the Kentucky Derby is on the first Saturday in May: it’s the first time all the top staying three-year-olds in Europe face each other, and thus we don’t know how they compare to each other, whereas most of the leading Belmont contenders raced against each other in the Kentucky Derby.

When looking for Epsom winners, the starting point must always be Aidan O’Brien. The master of Ballydoyle has won the race a record 11 times, including the three most recent contests. An interesting fact is that he hasn’t always won it with his most-fancied runner; High Chaparral, Ruler of the World, Wings of Eagles, Anthony Van Dyck, Serpentine, and Lambourn all beat fields including stablemates shorter than them in the betting.

O’Brien has four horses in the 14-strong Derby field: favorite #7 Benvenuto Cellini (2-1), #12 Pierre Bonnard (4-1), #1 Action (15-1) and #8 Christmas Day (20-1). Benvenuto Cellini earned his spot by winning the Chester Vase (G3) comfortably, and while Pierre Bonnard has been beaten in his two starts this season, he should appreciate 1 1/2 miles and will come into play further if rain arrives.

Action and Christmas Day finished second and third in the Dante (G2) behind Juddmonte’s unbeaten #9 Item (7-2). Item looked a star in the making, and he looks the best chance of taking down the O’Brien brigade. I wouldn’t rule out Action either – he is a three-quarter brother to Lambourn and might be the type to pinch some of the money.

Other strong hopes are #11 Maltese Cross (8-1) and #6 Bay of Brilliance (10-1), first and second in the Lingfield Derby Trial; #3 Ancient Egypt (12-1), first in the Newmarket Stakes May 1, and #10 James J Braddock (10-1), conqueror of Pierre Bonnard in the Leopardstown Derby Trial (G3).

I’m a believer when it comes to Item. By Frankel out of a Lope De Vega mare, he looks to have a touch of class about him. Benvenuto Cellini is obviously a strong chance, while I’m also a fan of James J Braddock, who should appreciate the extra distance, and Action.

Saratoga, Race 13, 7:04 p.m. ET: Belmont Stakes (G1), dirt, 1 1/4 miles, three-year-olds, $2 million

• $10 win/$30 place: #3 Renegade
• $2 Trifecta: 4, 7 with 4, 7, 9 with 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 ($24)

For the third time in five years, the Kentucky Derby winner enters the Belmont Stakes having turned down the chance to contest the Preakness (G1), thereby forgoing a Triple Crown opportunity. But will #9 Golden Tempo emulate last year's Sovereignty and triumph in the Belmont, or be like Rich Strike, who was beaten in 2022 despite his extra rest?

Golden Tempo’s Derby victory was similar to Rich Strike in that it came from a late rally off a strong pace. It wasn’t as big an upset as that of Rich Strike's win – he had been prominent in the Fair Grounds prep races to a greater degree than Rich Strike was at Turfway Park – but both benefited from the race pattern in their Derby victories.

It would be great for racing if Golden Tempo emulates Sovereignty and stays at the top of the sophomore pile. But in a nine-horse Belmont field without any obvious speed up front, it looks to be a tougher ask.

Instead, I’m going with #4 Renegade. He also closed from a long way back at Churchill Downs. But his race pattern in the Sam F. Davis S. and the Arkansas Derby (G1) was more akin to Sovereignty. He had enough speed to put himself into contention on the final turn despite a modest pace in both races, before rounding the race off strongly in the stretch. I’d expect him to put up a similar performance here.

Of the other Derby runners returning, #3 Chief Wallabee took some buffeting in the stretch, which didn’t help him finish fourth, while #7 Commandment arguably made his move too early and the inexperienced #8 Emerging Market lost a plate while racing too close to the speed. I probably lean most strongly to Commandment, but all three could win without surprising.

Among the non-Derby runners, I’d be surprised if #1 Vitruvian Man and #5 Ottinho were in the money, given that both were beaten by more than nine lengths in their last starts. Peter Pan (G3) winner #6 Growth Equity and Churchill Downs maiden winner #2 Powershift appeal as better chances, but they need to improve a bit more to win here.