Will all seven defending Breeders' Cup winners exit as losers?

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One of the more interesting prop bets as the 2013 Breeders' Cup World Championships unfolds is how many of the seven defending winners will repeat? If I were to accept wagers on the outcome I'd set the over-under line at 1.5 with 3-to-5 on the under and 7-to-5 on the over.
Individual odds would look like this (about 6.5% takeout):
# wins | Odds: |
---|---|
0 |
3-to-1 |
1 | 3-to-2 |
2 | 5-to-2 |
3 | 8-to-1 |
4 | 40-to-1 |
5+ | 400-to-1 |
I arrived at these odds by assessing the following chances to each of the returning seven winners:
Horse: | Race: | Odds-1 | % chance |
Fort Larned | Classic | 6.00 | 14.29% |
Groupie Doll | F&M Sprint | 4.00 | 20.00% |
Little Mike | Turf | 8.00 | 11.11% |
Mizdirection | Turf Sprint | 4.00 | 20.00% |
Royal Delta | Distaff | 2.50 | 28.57% |
Trinniberg | Sprint | 20.00 | 4.76% |
Wise Dan | Mile | 2.00 | 33.33% |
Given those odds the chance that they ALL win is about 347,000-to-1, which is less likely than randomly picking the Super High 5 in a 14-horse field (240,239-to-1). The most likely outcome is 1 winner followed by 2 then 0.
The art is discerning the odds-to-1 of each of the returning winners. After that it's all science to come up with the odds of a certain number of them winning. Do any of these prices look good to you?
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