Winners & Losers In February Prep Races
Here’s how I saw them:
The Withers Stakes on February 7 at Aqueduct.
Far From Over lived up to his name after overcoming an eye-catching bad stumble at the start and rallying from ten lengths back to prevail. It was a stunning performance from a horse who was only making the second start of his career.
Immediately after the race, many observers praised the performance, but also commented how they believed the Withers must have been a slow race that fell apart.
Of course, we all know our first impressions immediately after watching a race aren't always proven to be correct, once proper analytical study is added to the eye-test. The Withers wasn't quite a staggerfest. Far From Over earned a 96 on both the Brisnet.com Speed Rating and Beyer Speed Figure scales.
Indeed, the more I studied Far From Over's performance, the more impressed I became with it. His late rally was certainly not setup by a fast pace. Every pace figure product that I'm familiar with had the early pace rated as a sensible and average pace for the class level. The track surface wasn't especially kind to 'rally wide' closers either, in fact, the horse leading after the first call won five of the days other eight races, with two second place finishes.
Simply put, Far From Over ran a spectacular race. It was an ultra impressive performance from a May 9 foal making just his second lifetime start. The pedigree for Far From Over also shouts out for a classic distance. His sire Blame was a late developing sort who won the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. His dam is out of an A. P. Indy mare and the tail female family goes back to the legendary broodmare Courtly Dee.
While you have to heap praise on the winner, the rest of the Withers horses don't have much luster going forward. Second place finisher El Kabier spotted the entire field six pounds and was clearly second best. In terms of classic contenders, you can forget about the rest.
The Robert B. Lewis on February 7 at Santa Anita Park
This was a two-horse race on paper between Dortmund and Firing Line -- and it lived up to the expectations. Firing Line appeared to have this race won on the far turn, but Dortmund's long gigantic stride is a greater asset when running in a straight line, than cornering around a turn, so he was able to recover and prevail after seemingly being put away.
The top two finishers were so dominant, that you had to go back 21.5 lengths to the third place finisher. The race also aced the figure test, as it came back fast on everyones numbers.
Dortmund and Firing Line were both horses who performed exceptionally well in their drills at 2-year-old sales. In Dortmund's case, he came from the Fasig Tipton Timonium sale. This was the same sale where stablemate Bayern was purchased last year. A son of Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, Dortmund drilled his furlong in 10.20 seconds as you can see here:
The Timonium sale isn't a small sale, it had 580 horses cataloged last year, and only two horses managed to work faster than Dortmund. In fact, those two horses who worked faster both had sprinter pedigrees on top and bottom. Dortmund is sired by a dual Classic winner and is out of a stakes winning Tale of the Cat mare. The second dam of Dortmund, Ropa Usada, is an unraced Danzig filly who brought $900,000 as a yearling in 1990.
Besides his speed, the other area of the Timonium sale where Dortmund stood out was with his stride length measurement. His stride length measured a monstrous 26.62 ft. Generally speaking, horses with unusually long strides perform best running a straight line. I base this theory because they often seem to do their best in seven furlong races or one-turn miles. Having a huge body and an insanely long stride is less of an advantage when you're cornering around a turn. For those who don't know, Timonium is a bullring. Simply put, Dortmund was awesome at Timonium and Baffert was surprisingly able to buy him for just $140,000.
When I asked a couple of trainers who were at the Timonium sale and looked at Dortmund, why he sold so cheaply, one said "he looked like a horse who was just too big and would be a challenge to keep sound" and the other said "Big Brown was a cold name. I guess Dortmund just fell through the cracks"
Firing Line was also a 2-year-old sale graduate. He worked a quarter mile in 20.20 seconds at the Keeneland April two-year-old sale. The time seems incredibly fast, but they make the track faster than the Bonneville Salt Flats for the Keeneland April under-tack show.
Only one horse worked the distance faster than Firing Line, and that was the $770,000 purchase Ludicrous, who tragically broke down at Saratoga in his career debut for Chad Brown on Travers Day of last year. Firing Line is another horse with a route oriented pedigree. His sire Line of David won all of his races around two-turns and pulled off a wire-to-wire upset of Super Saver in the 2010 Arkansas Derby. The dam of Firing Line was Sister Girl Blues, she won her career debut going a mile on turf. By only her third career start, she competed in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks, which was run at the distance of 1 1/2 miles. Sister Girl Blues finest moment came when she finished second to the great Azeri in the 2003 Vanity Handicap.
Firing Line was also a relatively light purchase at just $240,000 considering his Grade 1 placed dam and under-tack performance, but his sire Line of David only stands for a $2,000 stud fee, and this was probably another case where having an unfashionable sire didn't help a promising athlete sell for optimal money.
El Camino Real Derby February 14 at Golden Gate Fields
All this race did was further cement my opinion that Bolo is clearly the best 3-year-old turf horse in California. In a race that seemed entirely up for grabs on the far turn, Metaboss dominated late with a powerful surge to victory. This is a promising colt on turf and synthetic surfaces -- but I do not see any appeal to him as a dirt horse. In his only career dirt start, he ran very evenly when beaten almost nine lengths in a stakes race that was rained off of the turf. The dam of Metaboss also preferred turf and synthetic surfaces. She regressed sharply and was beaten more than ten lengths at 3/1 odds in her only career dirt try, and was never attempted on the surface again.
The second dam of Metaboss is sired by none other than Bien Bien. One of my favorite horses growing up, Bien Bien was an outstanding multi-millionaire grass marathoner for Paco Gonzalez. He could run all day on the lawn, as best evidence by his easy win in the 1 3/4 miles Grade 1 San Juan Capistrano of 1994, where he spotted the field weight all around and absolutely toyed with them.
Metaboss was purchased out of the Barretts May two-year-old sale. He worked a furlong in 10.20 during his sales drill, as you can see here:
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