Your form guide to the 2016 Epsom Derby

As of Monday, 18 sophomores are eligible for Saturday’s Derby (G1) at Epsom, including a grand total of seven from trainer Aidan O’Brien. That Ballydoyle septet is expected to be whittled down by Thursday’s final declaration stage, with the French Derby (G1) looming as an alternative on Sunday. Riding assignments and post positions will also be finalized Thursday.

Topping the list is US Army Ranger, who’s currently vying for Epsom favoritism with the John Gosden-trained Wings of Desire. By supersire Galileo and out of 2008 Irish Oaks (G1) heroine Moonstone (who was also second in the Epsom Oaks [G1]), US Army Ranger is unbeaten from two starts, both this spring.

After breaking his maiden at the Curragh, US Army Ranger traveled to get an education in the Chester Vase (G3) (click link for video). He traveled conspicuously well in the slipstream of pacemaker Port Douglas, handling the tight-turning course with an economic action and athleticism very reassuring for Epsom. Readily quickening as Port Douglas turned up the tempo, US Army Ranger showed agility to rally up the inside and struck the front. Then his relative inexperience came out, as he nearly let the more street-wise Port Douglas come back on him. But US Army Ranger did enough to keep his head in front on the line. O’Brien projects considerable improvement, and it’s hard to argue with that prognostication. The biggest quibble is his price, a bit cramped for a horse trading more on home reputation in an open-looking year.

Wings of Desire has made rapid progress himself – unexpectedly so, since Gosden had removed him from the Derby back in March, when he hadn’t even done any serious training yet. The full brother to Eagle Top, and three-quarter brother to 2009 Epsom/Irish Oaks queen Sariska, graduated from a Wolverhampton maiden win in April to a 9-1 upset in the Dante (G2) at York. Finishing with a flourish from the rear, Wings of Desire collared O’Brien’s Deauville by a neck in a fast time for that premier Derby trial. Thus owner/breeder Lady Bamford had to put up the £75,000 to supplement Wings of Desire for Epsom, where he will try to give Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori a second straight Derby after Golden Horn.

I suspect that fitness told late in the Dante, for Deauville was making his seasonal reappearance for O’Brien. He fared best of those racing near the pace, and kicked clear in the straight before getting caught. It wouldn’t be a surprise if a fitter Deauville turned the tables on Wings of Desire in a rematch. Among the prominent juveniles last year, the Galileo colt won his first two starts, including the Tyros (G3), and checked in a stubborn second to Gosden’s then-flying Foundation in the Royal Lodge (G2). Deauville was a below-par fifth in the Racing Post Trophy (G1) in his 2015 finale. But judging by how emphatically he reversed form with Foundation (third in the Dante), Deauville’s likely still on the upgrade. Unless he goes to France, Deauville will offer good value for an O’Brien horse at the price.

O’Brien could also send out Idaho, a full brother to Highland Reel, who has twice placed to Harzand and Moonlight Magic in Leopardstown’s trials; Beacon Rock, who was beaten in the same two races before rebounding with a front-running coup versus lesser in the Gallinule (G3); Shogun, a full brother to last year’s Oaks shocker Qualify, who like his sister has been well exposed in stakes company; and Bravery, a well-beaten fourth in the Irish 2000 Guineas (G1) off a Dundalk maiden score. [Update: Beacon Rock and Bravery were withdrawn, leaving a final field of 16.]

The Aga Khan’s homebred Harzand isn’t certain to line up here. The Dermot Weld pupil stayed on to overtake Idaho in the Ballysax (G3) on heavy ground, leaving jockey Pat Smullen to size him up as more of an Irish Derby (G1) or really St Leger (G1) type: “I think he is too big and heavy to go around Epsom,” Smullen told irishracing.com.

A much more appealing prospect from that race is Moonlight Magic, a three-quarter brother to the immortal Sea the Stars. Trained by Jim Bolger, who believes he’s on par with his 1992 Irish Derby star and Epsom runner-up St Jovite at this stage, Moonlight Magic suffered his only loss when fifth in the Ballysax. I was chalking it up to being his first start of the year on desperate ground, but Godolphin’s John Ferguson revealed that the colt had a dirty scope afterward.

A healthy Moonlight Magic rebounded in style in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (G3) last out. The one hesitation about him is that he has to be niggled at on the turn, and typically you want horses who travel smartly on the bridle around Epsom. Yet I like the way Moonlight Magic strides out down the straightaway, and he strikes me as the best value play in the Derby.

 

Godolphin is double-handed, having supplemented Cloth of Stars for £75,000. The Andre Fabre trainee used to be in the shadow of stablemate Ultra, until the latter was sidelined by a splint injury, and Cloth of Stars kicked off 2016 with consecutive wins in the Prix La Force (G3) and Prix Greffulhe (G2). As a son of Sea the Stars, Cloth of Stars figures to improve with maturity. He’s endorsing that view by handily beating his nemesis from his juvenile days, Robin of Navan, in the Greffulhe.