NBC's Steve Kornacki Analyzes the Kentucky Oaks [VIDEO]

TwinSpires host Kali Francois sat down with NBC's Steve Kornacki to analyze the 2026 Kentucky Oaks field. Both analysts were aligned on Always a Runner, Chad Brown's lightly-raced filly who impressed visually in the Gazelle despite modest speed figures, as their top selection. 

Counting Stars, trained by Mark Casse, drew praise for her explosive burst of speed but was acknowledged as a high-variance type who could either dominate or disappear. Meaning was discussed as a value play, with some concern around the jockey change off Flavien Prat. Both agreed on fading short-priced Zany and Percy's Bar, feeling neither offered enough value at the expected odds. Pashmina at 30-1 emerged as a shared longshot interest for both. Kornacki wrapped by revealing his Oaks-Derby double: Always a Runner and Counting Stars on top into The Puma and Potente in the Derby.

Interview Transcript

Kali Francois for TwinSpires here of course with Steve Kornacki with NBC. Steve, we're gonna get into some Oaks action here. And Steve, you've got a lovely double digit price going into the Oaks.

Well, let's hope this is a double-digit price. Certainly the morning line. I always, you know, have those experiences with the Morning Line, but always a runner. Chad Brown's horse here. I really like this horse. I really like how she's looked actually in both of her races. She's only run twice. There's something about Chad Brown this week with these only two career start horses. But look, she had a win down at Tampa Bay. The speed figure was very light, but visually she looked really impressive. I thought you could see the potential and then in the Gazelle in New York going that mile and an eighth distance you're going to see here. I think you saw that potential really kind of blossom with her and I just love her in this spot coming and trying to do it here.

I agree with you, Steve. Listen, she's been riddled with a little bit of just hiccups coming into her first start and even in that first start, she kind of threw her head in the gate a little bit. So she overcame a little bit already in that first start and again the professionalism in her second start sailed right on it. I have her in my exacta as well. Who do you have in your exacta for the Oaks?

Yeah, the other one here that I really like and I didn't expect to when I started getting into this race, Counting Stars, Mark Casse's horse, and I am just — you watch some of these races — just an explosive burst of speed seemingly out of nowhere with her. She's done it multiple times. She's won by open lengths a few times now. She hasn't always delivered on that in these races. So I feel she's the kind of horse who, like, we could look up and she just takes off and she wins. It reminds me a bit of Secret Oath a couple years ago, but she could also be the kind of horse who just stops cold and you don't know why.

Well, and that's the excitement of the game in these fillies. You never know what they can kind of give us here a little bit. When it comes to what she said, Mark Casse is hoping for a little bit of that surge, a little bit like Silent Tactic, even though he's out of the Derby. A little bit of that surge no matter where she's going to be sitting in that race. Let's give a couple others. What else do you got going on in the Oaks?

Yeah, I mean I don't want to steal your thunder because we talked a little off air here, but I do kind of like Meaning in this race. I kind of like the style that Meaning brings to it. I thought she got a very smart ride in one of her preps from Flavien Prat. She won't have him on board. That gives me a little bit of concern there. But I'm interested in her for sure. Michael McCarthy said that her best version of what we've seen of her was in the Santa Anita Oaks. But outside of that, and you and I talked about this off camera, as opposed to another horse that's in the field that kind of is imposing a bigger type like her, she has had the experience to have a touch of a battle and she's been able to push through. So that's what I like about her. Any other thoughts on any of the other picks? I know you and I have dove through this field, so we could sit here and talk all day, but let's see what else you got going on.

Well, I mean really it's a thought that I want to kind of be against Zany in this race. And I want to be against Percy's Bar in this race. I kind of think, look, you could have some excuses for Zany in her performances this year, but ultimately I say you got to put up and I haven't seen her do it. And she's going to be a short price. And Percy's Bar — I'm just thinking situationally she may not get the kind of setup that she's had in some of these wins and again a short price there. I'm willing to look elsewhere.

I agree with you and it's been really hard to say that for me because what I've seen I've been impressed with on the track. You know who else I've been impressed with at a price? I think she's 30-to-1 right now — Pashmina. I'm loving her, I'm not kidding.

Oh boy, this is dangerous to be thinking too similarly here. I liked Pashmina in the Gazelle where Always a Runner won. She had that race out at Sunland where I thought she was going to win and she got some bad luck in the stretch there, kind of lost her momentum. She's the kind of horse who I think is going to come late, but also I think has been on the verge of putting it together and could. It's not crazy.

She's been right there and she's just impressed me so much in the mornings when I've seen her. What's your take on Prom Queen? I'm with her. I see all of that raw natural talent and Brad Cox is just expecting her to loop and swoop this field.

Yeah, I mean look, I respect her certainly. She's done it at Gulfstream. I'm not quite sure what she's done it against. And it's another one of those where I think the price is going to be relative to the opportunity that I think exists elsewhere. She's 8-to-1 but we know she's going to go down. I have a feeling she's going to.

Yeah. And let's also touch on Brendan Walsh's Bella Ballerina. She's of course a half to a pretty prolific, pretty mischievous horse who I think also won this Oaks as well. What's your take on her?

Yeah, I liked her as a 2-year-old. Not sure as a 3-year-old. Brendan said she's just been taking her time getting older and adjusting to these races. So they've been doing some works actively where they've been riding her over at Keeneland. And so while she's been on the front end, and that's not her game, I think she's going to change up tactics here.

Anybody else that's sticking out for you for the Oaks?

No, I think Explora certainly on the inside — I respect Explora too. But no, I think I'm really going to go with Always a Runner, Counting Stars, that's going to be it. I'm definitely going to have some Pashmina involved there too. And I always love the two-day bets that get an Oaks-Derby double and try to go for something big there.

I think since we're talking about it, let's hear it. What is your Oaks-Derby double?

Yeah, I'm going to use Always a Runner and Counting Stars probably into The Puma and Potente.

Love that. Steve Kornacki with NBC, but Kali Francois for TwinSpires here today.