The TwinSpires Jury: Claiming Crown & Chilukki Stakes | Ep. 117 [VIDEO]

The Jury Transcript for Episode 117

November 13, 2025

0:23

Welcome back to the Twin Spires jury. I'm Ashley Anderson here with Darren Sali and we have handicapper man of many

0:29

trades Nick Tamro joining us filling in for James Scully today. Good to have you back Nick. Only attempting to fill in for James

0:35

Scully is all I could try to do but great to be back with you. Well, we're going to be talking a lot of

0:41

Churchill Downs today, some aqueduct. We have the 27th Claiming Crown Championship Series on Saturday at

0:47

Churchill and the grade three Chiluki. So we'll cover the grade three and a claiming crown race and then the jockey

0:53

club oaks at Aqueduct. Nick, I'll start things off with you with that one turn mile grade three Chalooki at Churchill

0:59

on Saturday. It's race three. Tell me who you see winning this race. Yeah, really a grade three in name only.

1:05

Ashley, this is an outstanding field that came together. Ragtime was just a half length or so shy of being a grade

1:10

one winner and has been remarkably consistent so far. But I'll let you talk about her. I like one Magic Philly who

1:16

moved into the barn of Brendan Walsh last time out and was running against the uh the razor sharp Hillerito who

1:21

came back and won the dream supreme ran her down pretty confidently under Flavian Pratt and I thought ran a race

1:27

that day that really indicates that up to a mile could probably be okay. This is a horse that always looked good out

1:32

west for Phil Damato. I have a lot of respect for the job that Brendan Walsh does and might just have been getting

1:38

this Philly at exactly the right time. I guess in retrospect that second place finish two starts back looks a little

1:43

bit better now that we're all familiarized with Splendor who beat her that day by five plus lengths and that

1:49

was at a mile around two turns. I think a mile around one turn is probably going to suit her a little bit better. Pace-wise, I think she can be close

1:55

enough to keep a horse like Shred the Nar from getting too far away early. So, I felt like from a value perspective,

2:01

one Magic Philly was probably where I wanted to go. She'll be no no worse than the third choice. So, I'll uh I'll take

2:07

that willingly. Darren, let's talk about Shred the Nar, who's going to probably get the early

2:13

lead. So, why do you like that horse to win this race? Yes, you know, Shred the Nar, I think,

2:18

is a highly talented Philly. Um, she's going to be very forwardly placed in a field that I just don't see a ton of

2:24

early speed in, and Nick referenced that. Um, whether or not she actually makes the lead because she's never

2:30

really had to run that quick early. I think she's just running a couple of races where she was light years better

2:35

and went to the front and what were rather you know pedestrian fractions 47 47 and four and in all likelihood if one

2:43

magic Philly wants the lead she might be even quicker than shred the nar early but I think either way whether she sits

2:49

second to one Magic Philly or makes the front I think it's going to play to her advantage. Uh she was a Philly that was

2:55

being pointed to the Acorn earlier on in the season where she was scratched out of that race um where the vets actually

3:02

scratched her and then she was uh they said that she was showing signs of lameness prior to that scratch and um

3:07

was subsequently off for an extended period of time. You see the gap in about 3 months from May 31st to August 31st

3:14

for the workouts. Uh so she missed a lot of marquee events that I think she was probably being pointed towards. She

3:21

comes back here. um her effort at the that Churchill Downs allowance, you know, really opened up your eyes to

3:26

seeing that this is a Philly that obviously the the upside is is tremendous where she just went to the

3:32

front here and you're getting a look at that replay as she's just going to pull away impressively from the field in this

3:37

particular spot. And uh granted, you know, she's going to face the toughest field that she's faced to date, but uh I

3:43

think she's always been well meant. uh she's been destined for bigger things and I hope that she can uh get the

3:49

second half of uh you know this season and heading into her four-year-old season off on the right foot here. So I

3:54

think she's just going to come back and run a huge race here for Brian Lynch. So for me now I'm going to talk about

4:01

Ragtime who is 8 to5 but I'm also going to give you a price if you don't want to back the heavy favorite. It's just that

4:08

I didn't want to say that Ragtime shouldn't win this race because this Philly has really done well very little

4:14

wrong. Coming off a narrow miss in the grade two Raven Run has only raced at seven furongs for her career though and

4:19

she is adding an extra furong here but staying to one turn. So not having to add two turns here in this race but she

4:25

is breaking from the outside post. She's never broken from beyond post five before. I don't think that's really

4:31

going to mess her up but I'm just adding some variables to maybe cloud this heavy favorite. It's just that she really does

4:37

look on paper like she is going to be the best Philly in the field. When you look at the late pace ratings here,

4:42

you're going to have probably a decent enough pace early on for her to close into and she's had a 108 late pace

4:48

rating in this last race in the Raven Run when she was a halflength third and she had a 101 two starts back when

4:54

winning the grade three Dogwood at Churchill. But if you want a price, I did think Impel was intriguing breaking

4:59

from the rail. This horse has a win at a mile at Churchill, three back and that was an allowance optional claimer.

5:06

But she's been close before in graded stakes. And I think this is maybe a graded stakes race that she can finally

5:12

get to the winner circle. She's got one of her regular riders aboard, Florant Jeru. I think Flavvenian's going to be

5:17

at Aqueduct that day. But she does well at Churchill and she's two for two at the distance. So if you want a price, I

5:23

thought Impel at 9 to2. I just didn't want to discredit Ragtime because that Philly I've liked this Philly for a long

5:29

time and it's hard to play against her. But, you know, with the pace scenario, maybe she will come from too far back

5:34

and Impel should be a little bit closer. And I'm not sure from the rail if she'll go right out to the lead, but she does

5:41

tend to sit right off the early speed. I thought the interesting one of the interesting things here was Bill Mott

5:47

putting the blinkers back on rag time. Yeah. And, you know, she was appreciably slower in her last two starts early. And

5:54

I think if you use any any pace figure, um, you'll see that she was 10 plus points slower. Last time she was even

6:00

slower than that. and going to the mile. I think this Philly is going to be way more forwardly placed than we've seen in

6:05

her last couple starts. I wouldn't even really be terribly surprised if Junior has her sitting second right off Shred the Nar. Uh because I would imagine that

6:12

they're not only going to look to try and keep her in the game a little bit more, but it is a sprinter route move. I know it's only 78 to a mile. I just

6:18

think there's virtually no chance she's, you know, six plus lengths out early as she's been in her last couple of starts.

6:25

The only way that happens to me is if Shred Dinard just absolutely runs off early. and she's been so handy in each

6:30

of her last couple starts. I don't really really see that being a possibility. That's a good point with the blinkers.

6:36

Yeah, I was I was going to raise the same point. Nick beat me to it. Uh you don't really see Mott make a change and

6:42

then go back on it and go back to the previous change. Uh which I find fascinating. I I've also always been

6:48

interested about the fact with her, you know, based on her pedigree that that she has been just kind of relegated to

6:54

these one turn events. Uh I mean she debuted at seven furongs. She's a Union rags Philly. She's got Stormcat on the

7:00

bottom side of the pedigree. And there seems to be stamina top and bottom everywhere you look. And I think it's

7:06

fascinating that they've just kind of kept her going this one turn. They are stretching her out a little bit here to a mile and I guess they're a little bit

7:11

curious to see what that does. And and I'm curious to see, you know, next year is she going to be in the sprint

7:17

division? Are they going to try to stretch around two turns? And maybe how she performs here and how she accelerates in the final furlong will be

7:24

uh maybe a little bit of a preview of what's to come. And I think that's kind of an interesting added element to her story as a racehorse. And

7:31

I'm glad you brought up the blinkers and that was a note I meant to mention because her first two starts she had the blinkers on. She was more forwardly

7:37

placed and actually her third start she had it as well and was a little bit more far back in that in the grade one test.

7:43

But I think the blinkers and junior we saw do the same thing with Sovereignty. He was sitting more forwardly placed

7:49

what it called for it and they were successful. So, I'm sure he can do it all over again with rag time. And maybe

7:55

we'll see her in the Philly Mayor Sprint next year. Or maybe she's going to take the Silo path and eventually go to the D staff and surprise us all and win that.

8:01

We'll see. Well, let's move over to the Claiming Crown races. We have eight starter

8:06

allowances on Saturday's card at Churchill. And race 10 is the Claiming Crown Jewel, which is a co-featured race

8:13

on the card. It's going to be a mile and eighth for three-year-olds and up on the main track, 5:25 p.m. Eastern time.

8:19

Darren, who do you see winning this race? Yeah, I'll also reference and we'll talk about in a little bit the the the

8:25

tournament that we have on Saturday, which is a big NHC qualifier. Uh it's always fun when you have tournaments on

8:31

big days, Derby Day and Breeders Cup, and a lot of those races are tough. This might be the wildest day of racing that

8:37

that tournament players are going to be confronted with in a while because these races are impossible. And uh I expect a

8:44

lot of tournament players to try to build their bankroll early on. I think that the Chiluki Stakes is going to be a

8:50

race that a lot of people probably lean on because there's some consistent form to look at where you can really stro

8:56

maybe put together a strong opinion whereas these races including this claiming crown jewel just so impossibly

9:02

hard. Um I landed on cadet core. I thought the race was certainly filled up

9:07

with a good bit of early speed both inside and outside. Uh, I like the fact that cadet core has traveled pretty much

9:14

all over the Mid-Atlantic and takes his race with him from racetrack to racetrack wherever he goes. Whether it's

9:20

Pimlo, Delaware, Laurel, Colonial, Mammoth, he always shows up with a good race. His only pair poor performance, if

9:27

you want to call it, that was in the grade three Mammoth Cup where he was beaten seven and a half lengths by a next out winner in surface to air and

9:33

just a touch who was one to nine in that field that day. and he came back out of that to win at a $35,000 starter event,

9:41

beating a next out winner that he encounters again in this spot. He's had a great year. He's hit the board in

9:47

seven of eight starts. The only time he did not hit the board was when he tried to go 11 furongs on the turf. And you're

9:53

getting a look at the win here on August the 21st at Colonial in that aformentioned starter allowance where he

9:59

stalked, raided, pounced, and pulled away uh decisively here to a two-length victory. He's going to pick up the

10:05

services of Junior Alvarado. I'd certainly respect Kelly Breen when he shows up in a spot like this with a

10:11

horse like this as well. So, look, do I have a strong opinion about it? No. Because I think out of the 12 that are

10:17

going to go to the gate or whatever it's going to be, you can make a case for eight or nine of them. I just think this horse at a 6 to1 morning line offers

10:24

what I think is square value in a field that is very, very complex.

10:30

Yeah. Sorry I picked such a wideopen race. It was a tough one. Once I was

10:36

looking at it today, I was like, "Wait a second. Why did I pick this one?" Nick, how do you see this race playing

10:42

out? Yeah, as Darren said, these races are very, very difficult. It's fun to see

10:48

these horses get their moment in the sun. You know, a lot of the Warriors that that comprise the day-to-day racing

10:54

around the country and make us enjoy it so much. But I I I hate picking the favorite in here, but I went to the 12

10:59

Navajo Warrior for Safi Joseph Jr. and Ira Ortiz who uh come in off a victory at Churchill. This just felt to me like

11:06

a race with a lot of pace. This is a horse that can sit back and make one run. Iraat is so good in general, but

11:12

he's really at his best with pace developing situations, having horses that are coming from off of it, timing

11:18

that move. Um we're seeing the replay of his uh his last victory from uh back in September, um which was run at night.

11:26

And uh this horse is I think it was a twilight Thursday. Um, this horse just sort of gobbles everybody up late and

11:31

goes on to win it. Um, looking like a a type that can certainly handle this level. This was an open one other then.

11:38

I think that compares quite favorably to a effectively a $20,000 starter allowance and he's been he's been good

11:44

since he got into Safi Barn. He was good for prior trainer Tim. So, I'm just kind of trying to find the hot hand both in

11:50

terms of horse and jockey and this felt like it. It does make me feel a little a little bit better about taking the

11:55

favorite when the favorite's going to be around 7 to2. And you know, that might even be generous. These races throughout this card look like they're going to

12:01

offer up a ton of favorites in the 3 to one plus range, which obviously makes it a lot of fun for multi-race bets and uh

12:08

and some of those intraace bets that the tournament players will be firing it on to inspires.com.

12:13

I think y'all both landed on very solid horses in this field. I decided to get kind of creative with it. going for a

12:19

big price and gonna need a best effort here, but I went with alternate reality at 15 to one. Looking at the horses that

12:27

want to go to the front, we could get a decent pace for a late closer here. And this is a horse that hasn't won yet at a

12:33

mile and an eighth. Finished a very very close third though in an off the track or an off the turf event at Saratoga

12:40

back in June or yeah, it was June. Now, this horse is making his third start for Joe Sharp. But this is kind of what the

12:46

claiming crown's all about. This horse has moved Barnes several times. Has I think this is the fourth trainer he's

12:51

going to be starting for now. And it looked like in his first two starts for Joe Sharp, he was closing well, which is

12:58

why I like that he's going to be stretching out. Now, the seven for a long distance, he didn't close too well that last out at the allowance, but when

13:05

he was racing at a mile at Churchill, he was beaten just ahead that day. A 103 late pace rating. So, looking at a

13:11

potentially hot pace here for late closer. Also adding blinkers for the first time. Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard.

13:17

I thought why not take a shot at 15 to one with alternate reality. His stablemate is going to be breaking from

13:23

post one and also goes to the front. So when I was looking at who I thought would go to the early lead, you've got

13:28

the one I think the 10 burning pot and then that horse the 13 also looks like

13:36

wants to be forwardly placed. So maybe a hot enough pace for this deep closer to come through.

13:42

Yeah, there's a ton of speed in I mean, I think both Darren and I alluded to it picking off the pace horses. So, no, I

13:47

don't I don't think there's anything crazy about this one, but if you do, what better name than alternate reality to talk about, right?

13:53

Might be a little outside the box. Yeah. All right. Well, enough of the claiming crown since that is such a

13:59

puzzle. We're going to talk about some promos at Churchill Downs this weekend. Darren, what's going on with promos and

14:05

tournaments? Yeah, great stuff this weekend. Uh, Saturday for the Claiming Crown, a nice supporting offer, the $3,000 win ladder.

14:12

Uh this is a really cool promotion that that we've kicked off this year and it's uh just accelerated in terms of how the

14:18

players have responded to it and and seem to appreciate it. Uh essentially what happens is you you have to opt in

14:24

and place $5 win wagers on the entire racing card. And um well, you don't have

14:30

to bet every single race, of course, but the more races you bet, the more likely you're going to have a winner. Uh and if you win in three races, uh you're going

14:36

to share in a $500 prize pool. If you get a fourth winner, you're going to share in an additional $1,000 prize

14:42

pool. And if you go five for 11 on the card, you're going to share in the entire 3,000 by sharing in another

14:48

$1,500 prize pool. And of course, as you go up the ladder, there's going to be less and less people who have winners.

14:54

So, um, it's a really cool offer. It rewards the simplest wager in horse racing, which is something that I don't

15:01

necessarily think we do often enough, the win wager. It's the wager that players connect on the most and

15:06

essentially giving players an opportunity to share an additional up to $3,000. So, if you're going to play this

15:11

great claiming crown card, be sure to be opted into that. And one of the newer wagers at Churchill Downs is that $3

15:19

late pick three. On Sundays, we give you a nice hit it and split it. Uh $3,000.

15:24

And that's a that's a pretty cool number for just a pick three to be able to hit and split. And uh I believe last week uh

15:31

it was uh $750 for each player. Only four players shared in it. So you know, you hit a pick three, it paid a,000 and

15:37

just by being opted into the promo, you picked up an extra 75% bonus on top of it. So that's a pretty cool offer as

15:44

well. And if you're a pick three player, definitely one to uh be involved in. On the tournament front, two big ones this

15:50

weekend. We we alluded to it on Saturday. very happy to be partnered with the NHC, the NT on Saturday for a

15:56

$500 NHC qualifier. Two seats are going plus cash prizes. So, uh it's a great

16:02

opportunity. We talked about it on podcast this uh this entire week and we'll be talking about it on a in the

16:08

money media podcast tomorrow as well. But, uh expect to see a lot of the big names in there. Really great opportunity

16:13

to try to win your way to the NHC. And then on Sunday, we have a Kentucky Derby betting challenge qualifier on the card

16:18

to Churchill Downs as well. $500. One seat are going to be awarded for every 20 entries to get into that big derby

16:25

contest. So, a lot of cool stuff going on. Great tournaments, good promotional opportunities as well. And all of it

16:31

featured, of course, around the iconic Churchill Downs. All right. Well, now we're going to move

16:38

over to Aqueduct and talk about the Jockey Club Oaks, a grade three. I just

16:43

now looked at the morning line prices that came out and I'm not happy with my pick, but that's okay. We'll get to

16:49

that. I will start things off with Nick. Tell me who you picked in the jockey club Oaks. Yeah, I guess I have to refresh because

16:55

I was actually just looking to see if the morning line was out too and I assume maybe it would come out an hour or so before the the race because they

17:02

drew this card four days ago and the morning line wasn't ready this morning. But we're getting eight of five.

17:08

Yeah, I figured, you know, it's I I feared it. Um I thought she'd be favored. I wondered I wondered how much

17:15

uh David Aragon, who's an excellent morning wine maker, would make her the favorite over Fon. But yeah, I like

17:21

Laura Lynn. I I I will admit that, you know, probably save Lush Lips. Laurel Lynn, I think, is the best

17:27

three-year-old turf Philly out there. And I'd like to see her again Lush Lips at, you know, anywhere from a mile and a

17:34

16 to a mile and a quarter or so because I do think Lush Lips got a a really really good trip sitting right off the

17:39

pace. So did Laurelyn. I mean, there was no real excuse. I do think that distance-wise, all Laurelyn's kind of

17:45

been crying out for it. And um the miles that she was was was going in early and

17:51

running well, you know, you start to dig into that pedigree a little bit. I mean, it is very distanceoriented. So, I think

17:57

she's going to be really tough to beat here. I imagine Kendrick is going to put her right off the lead. It looks like

18:03

there's a couple of horses that could be forward. Evershed could show some speed. Maybe National Archive goes out figuring

18:08

that's probably the only way she could be effective. And I think Laurelyn's going to be very tough to handle here.

18:13

And I'll admit, I'm looking forward to seeing what she can do as a four-year-old because uh whether we have the likes, if she feels pretty back or

18:19

not, you know, Laurel Lynn feels like the kind of horse that could blossom into a Daff Turf Mile um potentially uh

18:26

New York um Diana type horse next year. I'll go ahead and jump in since I'm on

18:31

the same pick and I mean the price isn't too far away, but I was thinking that Fon would be the favorite two to one. So

18:38

very very close. Obviously, we're going to be competing for favoritism here probably at post time between Laurelyn and Fon. And I do think with the trip,

18:45

Laurelyn being a little bit more forwardly placed is probably to the advantage. And you've got the horse for the course angle, three for three at

18:51

Aqueduct. And really, aside from the last start, I mean, this is a horse that's unbeaten aside from that last

18:58

start going a mile and an eighth at Keeland. So, yeah, I mean, this is a very good chance in here for Graham

19:03

Motion and Kinder Carmush is a board 20% winner at Aqueduct. I just wish I was getting a little bit little bit higher

19:09

of a price. I guess if I'm going to throw out another horse that I think could be a price play, you get eight to one on Cythian for Bill Mott. And this

19:17

is a horse that last out was a length third racing a mile in a 16th. So maybe that added distance third off the layoff

19:23

as well. I'll throw that out there as a prize play breaking from the rail has sahachi aboard. But yeah, I'm sticking

19:30

with Laurelyn even though I was just hoping for maybe something around like five to two.

19:36

Yeah, I you know they were seven to five and two to one in in the QE2 and and Fon I I didn't really I I mean listen I I

19:42

know she's a closer. Uh I didn't really get the ride. I mean they they were going very slow up front and her and

19:48

Candy Quest were just seemed to be content to just kind of trail along at the back of the field and they were the

19:53

two horses that I keyed off of in the race and it was fun knowing 38 of a mile into the race that I had absolutely no chance. Um but you know we we'll see

20:01

which one actually goes off favorite here. Fon they're taking the blinkers off. Uh Laurelyn has been proven at a mile and 316. I I picked the horse that

20:08

finished second to her that day and and and I guess I mean this is not very a creative pick because if you're not

20:14

taking the two favorites, Evershed is the next most likely horse to land on. But similar to Laurel, Nick alluded to

20:20

the fact about the you know the distance and stamina up and down in her pedigree. I felt the same way about Evershed and I

20:26

thought uh the best race of her career was when she ran second at a mile and 316 behind Laurelyn at 14 to1 in the

20:33

Saratoga Oaks. She kind of inherited the lead uh in the Old Dominion Oaks, a race

20:38

that they over that soft turf at Colonial. Uh I don't I don't necessarily know if she wants to be on the lead like

20:44

she was that day. Uh, and I thought she ran very well because uh, you know, whenever you go to the front over soft

20:50

ground like that for the first time where she's been running over firmer good ground, it's tricky and I can

20:55

forgive the fact that she got a little bit tired late. I don't think that really is a knock against her and I I

21:01

don't think that that means that she can't get the mile and 38s here. Horses kind of crept up the inside on her to to

21:06

get her here in the the final few jumps ahead of the wire. uh if she can sit in in a good spot just off the speed

21:13

similar to what she did up at Saratoga, I think she's a threat. And as as the third choice, uh I think she probably

21:20

offers a bit of value compared to everybody else. So that's how I landed. It's not a supremely confident pick

21:25

because I think you guys uh between Laurel and Fon I think are on the most likely winners of the race. Uh I'm just

21:31

hoping Evershed maybe escapes at a little bit better price. Yeah. I mean I think you know it's

21:37

funny. I was going to tell you, you knew it to 38 pull. You were dead in that QE2 and that was after you held out hope for two furongs too long, right? I mean, it

21:43

was like it was unbelievable race the first half mile. You just knew they were crawling on the front end and I mean,

21:48

nobody moved at all. My problem with Fon and I think the way I bet this race is to play Laura Lynn over Evershed. Um, I

21:56

don't like Fon's running style for a mile and 38 at all. She's a drop back one-run closer. those blinkers are going

22:01

to have to come off and somehow inject a bunch of early energy into her because horses with that style are bad bad bats

22:07

around three turns at a marathon type trip because you can't lose contact and still have any chance especially in a in

22:14

a late autumn turf race over a course that's probably going to be at least somewhat wet. It's just because it's

22:19

been cold out, it's been rainy. Um I I don't see her quickening enough to get in there. So I would I would try and

22:24

beat Fon alto together and um and play Laurelin over Evershet.

22:30

All right, to close out, we'll talk about our fades of the week. Our horses at a short price that we're not playing.

22:35

Darren, I'll start with you. Yeah, I guess this is a good one for the uh for the contest players because it

22:41

comes in the last race at Churchill Downs and it is a brave fade. Uh but it's risk manager for me. Um you know,

22:46

coming off of that that win at the $50,000 starter level, uh I didn't really love that field that day. The

22:52

previous win against no one is a two other than company was that Kentucky Downs which you know a lot of the time I

22:58

kind of put into a category by itself. Um and this is a another horse that's just going to be a takeback you know

23:05

drop back closer make one run. Uh listen Mike Maker has owned the claiming crown for a long time and I completely

23:11

recognize that he's been the leading trainer in claiming crown races for a long time. I just thought this race is

23:16

really tough uh as all the claiming clown races are. There's horses that are coming out of nonwinners or two other

23:21

than allowances. There's horses that are coming out of good efforts in stakes competition, whether that be turf or

23:27

synthetic. And uh there's horses that are going to be closer to the pace that I think are in very good form right now.

23:32

Uh I just think you could do better in this field than settling for a horse that's probably going to be somewhere

23:37

around 9 to5, two to one uh at age seven. I know the horse is riding a three- race win streak. Um, and I know

23:44

it's Mike Maker with Gaffle own in a spot like this, but uh, again, I I I just think this is too competitive of a

23:51

field to land on the favorite. No arguments there. You're managing your

23:56

risk there with your fade. So, there you go. Well done. Oh, pun intended. Good stuff. Great. It was not my best work, but thanks,

24:02

guys. No, no, it was it was it was solid. Great set of silks manager. Very announcer friendly with the lime green

24:08

and the black. All right, Nick, you're up. Why are you not playing Freedom Road?

24:13

I'll admit I I was actually I I went back and looked at at what that Darren had chosen because I thought Risk

24:19

Manager was a reasonable fate as well. And I ended up on Freedom Road in uh in race number six, which is the iron horse

24:25

claiming crown event at a mile and a 16th on the dirt. And I just don't want a horse at less than four or five to one

24:31

in here. This horse has been in good form. He's been running at GFream. Last out at parks was a good second against

24:37

uh I would say probably slightly lesser. not much much lesser but another situation where the horse is going to be

24:43

overb because of Ira and we saw a little bit now on Thursday after he had five wins on Wednesday that his horses are

24:49

just you're paying a huge tax on any of his mounts and I want to avoid them when you can especially when the price is

24:55

going to be a little bit depressed now full disclosure Richard Sllamon has done an excellent job with this horse of late

25:00

and since he came back off a little break early in 2025 he's been a much better horse but there are too many

25:05

interesting horses in here he's been beaten at short prices in the past he's delivered plenty of time to short prices

25:10

in the past as well, but I'll take a swing against him at 7-2 in one of the uh many super competitive races with big

25:17

fields on Saturday for the claiming crowd. You all oversmart to pick claiming crown

25:22

races because there's an average of 12 and a half runners in the body of the field for all these claiming crown

25:28

races. Now, I decided not to go with a claiming crown race. Maybe I would have been smart to go with one of these oversized fields, but I went with one

25:35

with 10 runners. And I am going to be playing against Miss Ellery who is gonna be breaking from post 10 in race two at

25:42

a mile and a 16th. This is an allowance for Phillies and Mayers. And Miss Ellery, she is going to be making her

25:49

second start for a new trainer here. Last out was racing at a mile and a 16th and then kind of trailed off. Ended up

25:56

finishing five lengths and five lengths behind the winner in second. And if you look at her last four starts, it seems

26:03

like in that stretch run, she's losing ground. So going this mile and a 16th distance probably is not in her ideal

26:10

distance at least. She's one for six at a mile and a 16th. She does have Tyler Gaffle on a board, so that's always

26:15

going to help you at Churchill Downs, but he was aboard the last two starts, and this horse was pretty far back in second, both of those starts previously.

26:23

I see a lot of other runners in here with better prices that have some similar speed figures and have other

26:30

angles that look like they have more upside here. So, I'm going to play against this horse breaking from the outside who I also think probably wants

26:36

to be on the early lead. So, not going to play her at 3 to one. It's not the It's a lukewarm favorite, but that is my

26:43

my play against on Saturday. I think the key with her is I don't think she's getting the lead. I don't think she's quicker than Bolt on the

26:49

rocks right to her inside. So, uh, I think the key with her is if she sits second off of Bolt on the Rocks, does

26:56

that make her better or not? And I don't I don't know the answer because I I mean, the race, you know, three starts

27:02

back at Delaware, she she made an early aggressive move and then faltered again anyway. So, uh, you're 100% right. I

27:09

don't like playing horses that are two for 21 that are consistently losing ground on the stretch. She's drawn outside the other speed. It just comes

27:15

down to, you know, if Bolt on the Rocks makes the front, which she should, and she sits second, does that help her? Um,

27:22

but I I I don't know the answer. I'm not smart enough, but I I certainly understand the fade. Yeah, a lot of these horses, it looks

27:28

like they do come from farther back, so that could be a little risky, but the one looks like it might try to at least

27:34

be pretty close to the early lead. And if you look at the trainer angles here,

27:40

I just there's there's a couple in here that I just think have a better chance and much better price around six to one,

27:45

five to one. I thought the two recent maiden winners were definitely better options than than

27:51

than Miss Ellery. I mean, Scooch Over finished second. Angela Bella two back

27:56

and came out of that race to win a good maiden special weight at at Keeland. Both of them are going to come from a

28:02

little bit a little bit off the pace which I think is to their advantage. So, I definitely prefer the two recent

28:08

maiden winners to to to the favorite here. Yeah, I agree. And I think underneath you could do worse than Fyier Plazier, who

28:14

uh is kind of a fillin. I butchered that. Um the French part of it, but uh

28:20

she's a horse that's going to be making one run. And if there's any pace in front of her, she's run well into the teeth of slow paces in the past as well.

28:26

So, no, I agree. Too many interesting horses to be taking three to one on a poorly drawn horse like Misseller.

28:32

You said it better than I could have. I'm not even going to try that. So, well, we'll we'll leave it we'll leave

28:37

it to uh to Travis. I tell you, I do not envy I do not envy Travis on Saturday. I mean, calling the derby calling the

28:44

derby is its own animal and that's different. But you know the derby there's a lot of silks that you're very

28:49

familiar with from prominent owners. When you get No. When you get horses

28:55

coming in from all over the country and you're seeing silks that you've never seen before and you have to do that over

29:01

and over and over for 13 14 horse fields and as soon as you remember them you got

29:07

to forget them. I do not envy Travis on Saturday. It is. I I wouldn't be surprised if he says

29:13

this is what might be the most difficult day of calling for him all year. I I texted him this morning and said,

29:18

"You better eat your wedies Saturday morning. This claiming crown is nuts."

29:24

Yeah, it's it's that's a you make a great point too about the silks too, right? Because I mean, you're calling, you know, these graded grade one, grade

29:30

two races. We know all those horses. We know what silks they wear more often than not. But yeah, you this is really

29:36

really difficult and it's one after another. Yeah. as tough to call as it is to handicap. So, good luck to everyone out

29:42

there. It's I'll tell you what, it's tougher to call. I'll be honest with you, it is tougher to call because if you make a

29:48

mistake handicapping, unless you put yourself out there, nobody knows. You make a mistake calling the race,

29:53

you're going to hear about it. Well, if anyone can do it, Travis certainly is gonna get it right. I feel

30:00

like he's always studying those pronunciations and nice enough to send them to me on occasion when I'm gonna have to say them myself. So,

30:06

he's the gold standard. Yep. All right. Well, thanks for joining us, Nick, ahead of this very challenging

30:12

claiming crown and some aqueduct racing. I'm sure we'll see you again very soon. And we'll be back next Thursday with

30:18

more best bets and our fades of the week.

30:26