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2018 Breeders’ Cup Betting

| Head2Head Betting | 2018 Breeders' Cup Betting Guide | Bet Types to Make | Value of Betting | BCBC |

Horseplayers look forward to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships every year and the 2018 Breeders’ Cup, to be held in Louisville at Churchill Downs Nov. 2-3, will be no different. The 14-race program attracts the top horses, jockeys, and trainers in the world, which makes bettors salivate at the potential wagers they can make, knowing they’re betting on the best of the best within full fields.

Dubbed “the best bet in sports,” the Breeders’ Cup and its card featuring 14 grade one races isn’t to be taken lightly. The two-day card is lighter on the day 1, Friday's Future Stars, with five Breeders’ Cup juvenile races headlining the day, and closes on day 2, Saturday, with nine Breeders’ Cup races.

The field selection system will be implemented as necessary following the taking of pre-entries on Oct. 22, 2018

Betting for the two-day Breeders’ Cup program will open Friday morning, Nov. 2.

TwinSpires.com account holders can receive free Past Performances and the Insider Picks and Power Plays handicapping report when they wager on the Breeders’ Cup through TwinSpires.com. Sign-up is free, with no subscription fees, and the online wagering site presents the latest online technology as well as the best racing content.

The marquee races such as the BC Juvenile, the Mile, the Distaff, the Turf, and the $6 million Classic, get the most coverage, so you’ll need to research heavily to gain an edge over your fellow bettors. Another avenue to get that advantage is to spend time getting to know the lower-profiled races such as the Juvenile Fillies Turf and Turf Sprint.


The 2018 Breeders' Cup Betting Guide

Find the full FREE Breeders' Cup betting guide available for download by clicking on the blue 'Download Now' button.

What's inside? Quality Content.

Download the full free betting guide

Expert Picks for Friday for Breeders' Cup Bets at Churchill Downs

 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2 Churchill Downs

Top expert picks for Friday below. Find the top three picks for each race on Friday and Saturday in the free pdf download.

  Ed DeRosa Vance Hanson Nicolle Neulist Kellie Reilly James Scully
Juvenile Turf Sprint 13 Big Drink of Water 8 Sergei Prokofiev 8 Sergei Prokofiev 8 Sergei Prokofiev 8 Sergei Prokofiev
Juvenile Fillies Turf 4 Just Wonderful 1 Concrete Rose Newspaperofrecord Newspaperofrecord Newspaperofrecord
Juvenile Fillies 2 Serengeti Empress 10 Bellafina 4 Restless Rider 8 Sippican Harbor 4 Restless Rider
Juvenile Turf 10 War of Will 5 Line of Duty 2 Uncle Benny 5 Line of Duty 1 Arthur Kitt
Juvenile 5 Well Defined 9 Game Winner 9 Game Winner 9 Game Winner 11 Code of Honor

Expert Tip for the Breeders' Cup Distaff

A field of 11 of the top fillies and mares will converge in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) on Saturday. The Distaff
could be a showdown with champion Abel Tasman, and likely champ, three-year-old star Monomoy Girl. The race figures to come down to the pair of standout fillies.

ABEL TASMAN (#2) (7-2) has always been a high-class performer and will aim to conclude her season, and perhaps her career, in style. Champion Quality Road filly is a six-time Grade-1 heroine who has had success at Churchill Downs evidenced by her stylish score in the 2017 Kentucky Oaks (G1). Bob Baffert trainee has run two of the better races of the season with impressive performances in the Ogden Phipps S. (G1) and Personal Ensign S. (G1). Her most recent effort when fifth in the Zenyatta (G1) left something to be desired, though the quirky filly has rebounded with wins in her previous pair of unplaced showings.

Standout three-year-old MONOMOY GIRL (#11) (2-1) could be the one to catch and beat in the Distaff. Brad Cox pupil has had a sensational 2018 campaign that is sure to lead her to championship honors with four Grade-1 tallies, and nearly a fifth after being taken down when crossing the line first in the recent Cotillion (G1). Classy daughter of Tapizar was all heart in winning the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on this strip in the spring and has shown no signs of slowing down since. Filly will be fresh in just her second assignment since July and drew an ideal post position outside for the affair.

BLUE PRIZE (#10) (6-1) punched her ticket to the Distaff with a tally in the October 7 Spinster S. (G1). Ignacio Correas trainee is reaching the peak of her powers and could play spoiler to the heavy hitters today. Argentine-bred rolls in with victories in three of her last four assignments and she has an affinity for the Churchill Downs surface. Pure Prize mare was best in the Locust Grove (G3) two back and also shows an 8 ½-length romp in the 2017 Falls City (G2) in her 2017 finale at Churchill Downs.

Chestnut mare can be equally dangerous when being forwardly placed early on, or when taking back and making one run in the stretch.

Cotillion vixen MIDNIGHT BISOU (#7) (6-1) has been a consistently excellent performer in 2018. Dual Grade-1 queen was third in the Kentucky Oaks in the spring on the Churchill surface. Spinster second CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS (#1) (12-1) and Beldame S. (G1) heroine WOW CAT (#9) (8-1) also have appeal as contenders on the rise."

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Expert Tip for the Breeders' Cup Classic

"A fantastic field of 14 will go postward Saturday in the crown jewel of the Breeders’ Cup, the $6 million Classic (G1). A well-matched and accomplished cast will contest the lucrative, 1 ¼-miles test. Accelerate is the deserving favorite for conditioner John Sadler, but this is a race where searching for a price seems like the right course of action. The 2018 Classic has a very “grassy” feel to it and the focus will be on the proven turf performers.

In terms of raw talent, European invader ROARING LION (#2) (20-1) is at the top of the cast. Sensational sophomore from the barn of John Gosden has been sublime leading up to his most lucrative assignment in the Classic. Kitten’s Joy colt has hit his best stride in the second half of 2018 in registering four Group-1 tallies in succession. Gray Kentucky-bred is adept at handling the ten-furlong distance, and proved both his versatility and class in coming out on top in the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at one mile at Royal Ascot last time. His lack of dirt experience can be made up for with his abundance of class. If Roaring Lion takes to the main surface, his foes will be in trouble.

Travers S. (G1) victor CATHOLIC BOY (#3) (8-1) is still a tough read on dirt at this level but nobody can doubt his class or determination. More Than Ready colt has been running huge since his juvenile campaign. Bay was a Grade-3 winner in a second lifetime race and finished a closing fourth in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Del Mar. Ridgling concluded a fine two-year-old season with a stunning, 4 ¾-length drubbing in the Remsen S. (G2) in his dirt debut. Rapidly improving sophomore is peaking with sensational tallies in the Belmont Derby (G1) and Travers S. (G1) in advance of the Classic and comes in fresh for Jonathan Thomas. A forwardly placed trip is expected from the fine sophomore.

YOSHIDA (#10) (10-1) is another who has attained top-level glory on both dirt and the turf. Son of top Japanese sire Heart’s Cry won at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day when annexing the Turf Classic (G1) and comes into the Classic after taking the Woodward S. (G1) going away, unleashing a potent nine-wide rally en route to victory. Bill Mott pupil has every right to improve in a second main-track appearance. And quality late runners have historically

performed well when the Classic has been held at Churchill Downs, with Blame and the Mott-trained Drosselmeyer taking the last two Classic events beneath the Twin Spires. Yoshida will be rallying from well back early on.

ACCELERATE (#14) (5-2) has done little wrong throughout a fine 2018 campaign. The depth of this field makes any horse at shorts odds a bet against to some measure, though. Bob Baffert’s WEST COAST (#7) (5-1) was third in the 2017 Classic and is the second-choice. Fine four-year-old came off a long break to run second in the Awesome Again (G1) and is training in fine fashion since.

Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner MCKINZIE (#6) (6-1) and Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) star THUNDER SNOW (#1) (12-1), are also in with a big chance if things go their way."

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Breeders' Cup Friday

$1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint
$1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf
$2 million Juvenile Fillies
$1 million Juvenile Turf

$2 million Juvenile

Breeders' Cup Saturday

$1 million Filly & Mare Sprint
$1 million Turf Sprint
$1 million Dirt Mile
$2 million Filly & Mare Turf
$2 million Sprint
$2 million Mile
$2 million Distaff
$4 million Turf
$6 million Classic

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Churchill Downs At A Glance For the September 2018 Meet

Avg. Winning Odds: 6.22 – 1
Favorite Win%: 34%, Favorite Itm%: 70%
 
EXOTICS PAYOFF
Exacta 117.77
Daily Double 121.72
Trifecta 800.01
Pick 3 895.42
Superfecta 6,870.29
Pick 4 8,063.48
Pick 5 28,424.45
Pick 6 Jackpot 85,481.78
Super High Five 5,912.60
TRACK BIAS MEET(09/14 – 09/30)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
 
6.0fDirt 27 48% E Inside  
6.5fDirt 13 15% E/P Outside  
1 MileDirt 18 17% E/P Outside  
1 1/16mDirt 19 16% P Outside  
Turf Routes 11 18% E Outside  
TRACK BIAS WEEK(09/24 – 09/30)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
 
6.0fDirt 8 38% E Outside  
6.5fDirt 5 20% E/P Rail/Ins  
1 MileDirt 11 27% P Mid/Out  
1 1/16mDirt 7 0% P Middle  
Turf Routes 3 33% P Middle  
Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
 
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’17-‘ 18
Win%
Amoss Thomas M. 12 4 0 3 7.12 1 25%
Hartman Chris A. 12 4 3 3 7.94 3 18%
Forster Grant T. 4 3 1 0 5.38 0 15%
Correas, IV Ignacio 5 3 0 1 9.22 0 15%
Baker James E. 7 3 2 0 6.14 0 15%
Barkley Jason 5 2 2 0 4.40 1 10%
Richard Chris 5 2 0 0 13.34 1 13%
 
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’17-‘ 18
Win%
Lanerie Corey J. 26 7 5 4 4.15 2 18%
Graham James 15 5 1 0 10.53 0 12%
Gilligan Jack 9 3 0 1 14.57 0 10%
Cannon Declan 11 3 1 0 19.50 0 11%
 
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’17-‘ 18
Win%
Romans Dale L. 18 0 2 2 15.29 3 16%
 
COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’17-‘ 18
Win%
McMahon C.J. 11 0 1 1 19.45 1 8%

source: BRISnet.com At a Glance

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Types of Bets to Make

Now that you know the race schedule, and which races to target, it’s time to figure out which bets to make. Straight Win-Place-Show bets are an easy way to bet the Breeders’ Cup, and if you feel really good about a horse in a certain race making a straight bet is the way to go.

Think you know the exact order of how a race will finish? Then exacta wagering if for you, and you have your choice of predicting the top-two finishes (exacta), top-three (trifecta), and top-four (superfecta).

With 13 races, a popular form of betting on the Breeders’ Cup is pick betting. Making a pick bet allows you to wager on who will win in consecutive races. Expanding your wager card to multiple races raises the risk, but also raises the award. The Daily Double is the most popular type of pick bet.

2018 witnessed the re-introduction of the exciting Breeders' Cup Future Wager. In the same veign as the popular Kentucky Derby Future Wager, the BCFW offers players a chance to lock in better odds and value for horses who could win their supported divisions.


The Value of Betting at the Breeders’ Cup

The Breeders’ Cup isn’t just an attractive event to bet on because you get to see the best horses. The fact that so many of the best horses in the world are present means you’re likely to get better odds on a good horse than you will at any other time during the season.

One great example of this is the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Songbird was undefeated coming into the race, and she hadn’t been at anything longer than 3-10 odds all year. But facing older fillies and mares for the first time, she went out at better than even money. She was beaten by champion older mare Beholder, who started at 3.3-1 after being no longer than 4-10 when racing fillies and mares the previous two years. Admittedly Beholder’s three defeats in 2016 affected her price as much as the arrival of Songbird, but it was still great value for her fans.

The arrival of European raiders for the turf races, in which many of them are racing in North America for the first time, means there can be great odds available – not only for them, but also for those running from local stables. One great example of this was Main Sequence in the Breeders’ Cup Turf in 2014. He had won all three of his starts that year, the last of them at odds of just under 2-1, but with the European arrival he started the Turf at 6.2-1, and he delighted those that had faith in him with a strong victory.

Don't forget to check out the Breeders' Cup Future Wager, where you could beat the odds at post time.


The Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge

Hailed as the country’s largest live handicapping tournament, the Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge is the most exciting way to wager on the Breeders’ Cup and test your handicapping skills against the world’s top horseplayers.

A “real money” handicapping challenge, The Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge requires players to put down a $10,000 deposit ($7,500 used towards betting bankroll). The format of the challenge includes all Friday races and races trough the Cup Classic on Saturday. The only types of wages allowed are: Win, Place, Show, Exacta, and Trifecta.

$2,500 of the initial $10,000 deposit from each player will be put into the prize pool, which could reach $1 million if 400 players enter. First place comes with a $300,000 prize. You can qualify either live or online for the challenge. Make sure to register online for your shot at betting glory.

Further reading:

Strategies for Betting in Tournaments
Contest Strategies for Betting Horse Players

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