Cotton Bowl: Florida vs. Oklahoma odds, preview, and pick

In one of the most anticipated bowl matchups of the season, the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners and No. 7 Florida Gators will square off in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl on Dec. 30.

The contest is the third straight New Year’s Six bowl for the Gators under head coach Dan Mullen. It will also mark the first time in Lincoln Riley’s tenure at Oklahoma that his team did not reach the national semifinal.

Short-handed Gators seek end-of-season comeback

Late in the season, Florida appeared to be one of the most dominant teams in college football. With Heisman Trophy contender Kyle Trask leading the offense, the Gators owned just one loss — a three-point defeat at Texas A&M – heading into December, and were a dark-horse candidate to crack the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.

The Gators’ playoff hopes came crashing down after a surprise loss at home against 4-5 LSU on Dec. 12. Star tight end Kyle Pitts sat out with injury but returned for Saturday’s SEC Championship Game, where he hauled in seven passes for 129 yards in a 52-46 defeat against Alabama.

Pitts is again out of the lineup for the Cotton Bowl. On Sunday, the junior announced he would opt out of the game in order to focus his attention on the upcoming 2021 NFL Draft.

More Gators may follow suit and decline the opportunity to participate in the bowl game. Receivers Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes are among the players who could be absent from the matchup.

That would leave the country’s No. 1 passing offense in fairly bad shape, as Pitts, Toney, and Grimes are the top three receivers on the team. The trio has combined for 2,343 receiving yards and 31 receiving touchdowns on the year. 

Sooners bring surging defense to battle

Even more bad news for Florida, the Sooners’ defense isn’t the punching bag it has been in the recent past.

With the return of defensive end Ronnie Perkins, who was suspended for the first five games of the season, Oklahoma has held opponents to 17 points across its last five games, all of which were wins.

Without Perkins, who has 5.5 sacks on the season, the Sooners dropped back-to-back games against Kansas State and Iowa State early in the fall. The defense also surrendered 75 points across those two losses.

In addition to Oklahoma’s burgeoning defense, the offense features freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler, who ranks ninth in the country in passing yards (2,784) and eighth in touchdown passes (25).

Rattler is complemented in the backfield by running backs Rhamondre Stevenson (479 yards, six TDs) and T.J. Pledger (451 yards, five TDs). Those two could spell trouble for Florida’s defense, which allowed 146.5 rushing yards per game against SEC competition, including 366 rushing yards over its past two losses.

Gators vs. Sooners betting trends

The Gators will head in as 4.5-point favorites and are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 bowl games.

However, Florida is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games overall, and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite.

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the SEC.

The Under is 4-1 in Oklahoma’s last five bowl games.

Gators vs. Sooners prediction

The only other time Florida and Oklahoma met on the football field was during the BCS Championship Game in 2009.

That matchup featured Gators quarterback Tim Tebow against Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford in a game many incorrectly projected to turn into a shootout.

Instead, Florida ousted Oklahoma 24-14 in a defensive dogfight.

This time around, Florida and Oklahoma should run up the score a bit more. But with the Gators likely to compete without multiple key playmakers on offense, expect a New Year’s Six nail-biter that culminates in a Sooners win.

Score prediction: Oklahoma 35, Florida 31

Pick: Oklahoma +4.5, Under 68.5

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