Racing Roundtable: Road to Kentucky Derby/Oaks and Breeders' Cup prep results

This week, the Racing Roundtable analyzes the results of the first stop along the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1), plus the Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" prep races at Woodbine over the weekend.

What were your thoughts on the first stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby/Oaks?

James Scully: Jonathan’s Way seized command at the break and recorded a sharp win in the Iroquois (G3), turning the one-turn mile distance nearly two seconds faster than his female counterpart, Pocahontas (G3) winner La Cara two races earlier. After overcoming a slow start to convincingly win his career debut, the Phil Bauer-trained colt proved dominant on the front end, displaying a smart turn of foot leaving the far turn to humble the competition, and Jonathan’s Way’s tactical ability may prove advantageous in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). The dark bay registered a 93 Brisnet Speed rating for the 2 3/4-length decision.

La Cara needed four starts to break her maiden, graduating by a six-length margin over seven furlongs at Saratoga, and the Mark Casse-trained daughter of Street Sense made it two straight with a gutsy win in the Pocahontas. The race didn’t come back fast, as La Cara registered an 81 Speed rating, but it featured an exciting finish. Saratoga debut maiden winner Liam in the Dust missed by three-quarters of a length in second, and Icona Mama, overlooked at 30-1 after finishing second at 29-1 in the off-the-turf Bolton Landing S., was another head back in third.

Vance Hanson: The Iroquois was a considerably faster race than the Pocahontas, and based on that I expect it will prove a more meaningful race in the short term and probably in the long term as well.

Both Jonathan's Way and runner-up Owen Almighty had shown notable potential in the lead-up to the Iroquois. Jonathan's Way had flubbed the start in his debut at Saratoga but managed to overcome it, and on Saturday he displayed an impressive bit of versatility leading all the way. Owen Almighty also turned in another solid performance, albeit in his first losing effort. He had displayed a lot of talent in his first two starts, including a decisive victory in the Ellis Park Juvenile.

From a pedigree perspective, there's a chance both colts will excel more over a mile and/or around one turn, rather than see out nine or 10 furlongs better than others. But 1 1/16 miles in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile should both be in their wheelhouses and they deserve the chance to try it.

I'd also note Jonathan's Way being an Ohio-bred, a state that has tended to yield notable Derby aspirants every couple of decades. Air Forbes Won (1982) and Harlan's Holiday (2002) were Ohio-breds who wound up favored in the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps the Buckeye State is due to have another major contender on the first Saturday in May.

Ashley Anderson: Visually, Jonathan's Way was the most eye-catching with a dominant gate-to-wire victory in the Iroquois (G3). The son of first-crop sire Vekoma kicked away to triumph by 2 3/4 lengths over 10 rivals and is now unbeaten from two starts. The Phil Bauer trainee overcame traffic trouble to win by 4 1/4 lengths when breaking his maiden on debut at Saratoga in August, then stretched out from six furlongs to a mile and had his way from the get-go on Saturday. He's one to watch along the Derby trail, but it should be noted that the Iroquois has failed to produce a winner of the garland of roses thus far. Of the 29 Derby starters who raced in the Iroquois, only two have finished in the money (Lookin at Lee was second in the 2017 Derby and At The Threshold finished third in the 1984 Derby).

Pedigree-wise, Pocahontas (G3) heroine La Cara is bred to handle longer distances as a daughter of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare. The Mark Casse pupil took four tries to break her maiden but now rides a two-win streak. Her maiden victory produced a 91 Brisnet Speed figure, but her speed figure dropped to an 81 in the Pocahontas. Her winning time at a mile was also almost two seconds slower than the 1:36.08 Jonathan's Way clocked later on the card at the same distance.

What were your takeaways from any of the Breeders' Cup WAYIs at Woodbine?

JS: Upsets were the theme at Woodbine as three of the four Grade 1 turf events, including both Breeders’ Cup Challenge races, were captured by outsiders. Win for the Money had been training forwardly according to connections, but it was surprising to see the five-year-old gelding earn his first graded win in a dominant manner, blowing past pacesetter Filo Di Arianna in midstretch to record a 13-1 shocker in the Woodbine Mile (G1). In his two previous outing, the chestnut was exiting a second in the Kentucky Downs Turf Mile Preview at Ellis Park and finished fourth in the Wise Dan (G2) at Churchill Downs two back. Mark Casse trained the top two finishers.

After graduating in an off-the-turn maiden over a muddy Saratoga track, And One More Time made her first turf attempt a winning one in the Natalma (G1), earning a berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) with a 16-1 upset. By Omaha Beach, the dark bay filly edged Vixen by a neck, with pacesetter Nitrogen three-quarters of a length back in third, and all three fillies are trained by Casse. 

Full Count Felicia, one of two runners for Kevin Attard, sprinted clear by about 20 lengths in the opening stages of the E.P. Taylor (G1) and never relinquished control. Her stablemate Moira, odds-on following her success in the Beverly D. (G2), made up a lot of ground over the final furlongs but still came up 3 1/2 lengths short in second. Overlooked as the 7.80-1 fourth choice among five runners, the five-year-old mare carried her speed over 10 furlongs and has now won two consecutive stakes.

The Summer (G1) for two-year-olds at a mile on turf proved more formful, as 3-1 second choice New Century rallied to defeat even-money favorite Al Qudra by 1 1/4 lengths. Based in England with Andrew Balding, the progressing colt established himself as a top contender for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) with a second consecutive stakes win and stopped the teletimer in a snappy 1:32.80.

VH: Earlier this year Godolphin and trainer Charlie Appleby looked absolutely loaded for the Breeders' Cup Mile with several U.S.-based runners, but now their contingent looks increasingly depleted. Last year's Mile winner Master of The Seas bruised a foot over the summer and hasn't had a published work since late July. Ottoman Fleet didn't perform up to snuff in the Fourstardave H. (G1), and on Saturday, Naval Power ran up the track in the Woodbine Mile as a 1-2 favorite. Granted, Naval Power well below form and perhaps can bounce back in his next start, but this wasn't the deepest cast he was facing. Win for the Money and Filo Di Arianna were well exposed, and Big Rock has not been the same horse this year than he was last season when getting the softer ground he prefers.

Trainer Mark Casse enjoyed a terrific day on Saturday, winning the Woodbine Mile, Pocahontas, and running one-two-three in the Natalma. However, the Europe-dominated edition of the Summer (G1) is probably the Breeders' Cup prep to focus on most. New Century finally got the upper hand over Al Qudra in the third meeting between them in their young careers, and did so rather stylishly to pull away at the end. Europe has won 11 of the 17 renewals of the Juvenile Turf (G1), and this son of 2000 Guineas (G1) winner Kameko will deserve a long look at Del Mar.

AA: Woodbine's stakes on Saturday produced a number of upsets, with Godolphin coming up short when favored in all three Breeders' Cup WAYI events. Naval Power was sent off at 0.55-1 in the Woodbine Mile and came home fourth, failing to reach the winner's circle for the third time since shipping over to the U.S. Stablemate Mountain Breeze finished eighth as the 0.80-1 favorite in the Natalma (G1) for juvenile fillies, and Al Qudra was a 1.05-1 post-time favorite in the Summer S., where he finished second to New Century (GB).

The Woodbine Mile may be the most noteworthy prep among the three, as winners have been fairly successful in the Breeders' Cup Mile dating back to 2010. Court Vision was the first Woodbine Mile hero to go on to win the Breeders' Cup Mile, having won the Woodbine stakes in 2010, a season before his Breeders' Cup triumph. Two-time Breeders' Cup Mile winner Wise Dan also won the 2012 and 2013 Woodbine Mile, and Mark Casse's Tepin was a Breeders' Cup victor the year before he crossed the wire first in the 2016 Woodbine Mile. Casse also won both races in 2017 with World Approval, and Charlie Appleby won both races in 2022 and 2023 with Modern Games and Master of The Seas, respectively.

Casse's Win for the Money prevailed as a 13.65-1 choice in the Woodbine Mile on Saturday. The five-year-old gelding is 5-for-16 lifetime and 2-for-4 this season and may be outclassed in this year's edition of the Breeders' Cup Mile. 

Summer S. (G1) champ New Century may be the best chance in the Breeders' Cup among Saturday's Woodbine winners. The two-year-old turned the tables on Al Qudra, who beat him in the Pat Eddery S., and his 1:32.80 winning time in the one-mile Summer was just slightly slower than Win for the Money's finishing time in the Woodbine Mile.

What else caught your eye from the weekend?

JS: Vekoma leads all first-year sires with 19 winners, four more than Complexity, but the multiple Grade 1-winning son of Candy Ride had lacked a graded/group winner until Jonathan’s Way captured the Iroquois. He’s a serious contender for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and Vekoma has another quality runner in Vixen, who appears bound for the Juvenile Fillies Turf following her neck second in the Natalma.

Following a head second to possible Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) favorite Fierceness in the 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1), Thorpedo Anna will come back on 28 days' rest against three-year-old fillies in Saturday’s $1 million Cotillion (G1) at Parx. She met only three rivals in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) two back, but seven foes will seek to knock off the presumptive divisional champion in the 1 1/16-mile Cotillion, including a couple of notables.

Power Squeeze had other options following wins in the Alabama (G1) and Delaware Oaks (G3), but the Jorge Delgado trainee will bring her strong late kick to the Cotillion. Sidamara, an up-and-coming daughter of Arrogate who finished a nose second when making her first stakes attempt in the Delaware Oaks, will test her class for Bill Mott off a freshening. I’m excited to see Thorpedo Anna face arguably the second- and third-best dirt route fillies in her division Saturday.

VH: There were a handful of Breeders' Cup "Win & You're In" preps held in Ireland over the weekend and I'll mention two of the winners. Bradsell is now a dual qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1), following up his win in last month's Nunthorpe (G1) with with another convincing score in the Flying Five (G1) at the Curragh on Sunday. I don't necessarily think he'll be able to go toe to toe with Cogburn, but Bradsell looks good enough to give a strong account of himself. Only one European-based runner has ever captured the Turf Sprint, but the quality of the horses from Europe competing in that race has improved in recent years. Bradsell will be joined by Big Evs, himself the winner of the Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) last year.

Porta Fortuna claimed the Matron (G1) at Leopardstown on Saturday for a third consecutive Group 1 success and now will point for the Breeders' Cup Mile. Although she traveled well to America last season, missing in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) by only a half-length, I'm not keen on the possibility of a three-year-old filly winning the Mile in their first go against older males. Mawj almost did so last year, but there's a reason the only three-year-old fillies to win the Mile were the standouts Miesque, Ridgewood Pearl, Six Perfections, and Goldikova. All had previously won open Group 1 miles, either the Prix du Moulin (G1) or Prix Jacques le Marois (G1). Porta Fortuna has not been as battle tested and she'd be a fade for me if she wound up taking a lot of action.

AA: In a rematch of the Aristides S. between Closethegame Sugar and Skelly — both Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) hopefuls — 14-1 longshot Happy Is a Choice got the better of both when beating 1.05-1 favorite Skelly by a neck in the six-furlong Louisville Thoroughbred Society S. The runner-up, who won the Count Fleet H. (G3) at Oaklawn earlier this year, maintained a clear margin through midstretch but was run down late by John Ortiz's four-year-old gelding. Skelly has now finished runner-up in his last three starts, all outside the confines of Oaklawn Park, and his appearance in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at Del Mar is a concern, considering eight of his 10 victories have come at the Hot Springs, Arkansas, track.

Closethegame Sugar's disappointing performance was also notable, as the Adam Rice trainee failed to settle and faded to finish last of seven on Saturday. The Girvin four-year-old placed second to The Chosen Vron two back in the six-furlong Bing Crosby (G1) when coming off back-to-back stakes scores at Churchill Downs and entered Saturday's race with two wins and two seconds from four starts this season, but his latest outing is cause for concern ahead of the Breeders' Cup.