10 takeaways from the 2020 Breeders’ Cup

With 14 races over the course of two days, the Breeders’ Cup is an action-packed event, and handicappers usually need a week or so to analyze and dissect the results.

I have taken the appropriate amount of time to review the data and replays, so I’m ready to share my top 10 takeaways from the 2020 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland.

Some are general, others are more specific, but hopefully all will yield useful handicapping insights for the future.

1. Authentic will be the 2020 Horse of the Year

The Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) was billed as a showdown for Horse of the Year honors, and the $6 million race didn’t disappoint. Kentucky Derby (G1) and Haskell (G1) winner Authentic tipped the scales in his favor with a resounding 2 1/4-length victory over three-time Grade 1 winner Improbable.

With fellow Horse of the Year contenders Maximum Security and Tiz the Law off the board, Authentic has emerged as an obvious choice to claim the top honor at the Eclipse Awards.

2. Brad Cox is ultra-hot (if we didn’t know it already)

Trainer Brad Cox has been on fire all year, but he elevated his game to a new level at the Breeders’ Cup, where he saddled four winners — Monomoy Girl in the Distaff (G1), Essential Quality in the Juvenile (G1), Aunt Pearl in the Juvenile Fillies Turf(G1), and Knicks Go in the Dirt Mile(G1).

That haul figures to earn Cox his first Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer.

3. Monomoy Girl is bound for the Hall of Fame

Cox's sensational 5-year-old mare, Monomoy Girl, appears destined for induction into the Hall of Fame, after she won her second Distaff.

The champion 3-year-old filly of 2018, the seven-time Grade 1 winner has crossed the wire first in 14 of her 15 starts and will return to training in 2021, which provides an opportunity to enhance her Hall of Fame credentials.

4. The Keeneland main track was extremely fast

Five track records were set over the Keeneland main track during Breeders’ Cup week. Quality horses were obviously a factor in the quick times, but Keeneland has actually been playing fast across the board this year.

Eight of the 13 dirt track records have been set in 2020, and the record for 6 1/2 furlongs fell on a couple occasions this year.

Fast times from the Breeders’ Cup should be taken with a grain of salt. We saw some memorable performances, but record times should be reviewed in context, with other handicapping factors (including speed figures), to gauge the strength of each performance.

5. Gamine is a one-turn superstar

Gamine clocked 7 furlongs in a record-shattering 1:20.20 to win the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). Even if you take the speed of the track into account, this was a powerful performance by every metric.

After she tracked the pace in second place, Gamine seized command and surged clear to win by 6 1/4 lengths, over Grade 1 winners Serengeti Empress and Bell’s the One, to earn a 110 Brisnet Speed rating.

The Breeders' Cup effort was a big rebound for Gamine, who previously finished third when she stretched out around two turns in the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

It’s possible the daughter of Into Mischief will handle longer distances in 2021, but she has developed into a virtually unstoppable, one-turn monster. It’s hard to imagine anyone can beat Gamine over her preferred track configuration, at least for the foreseeable future.

6. European shippers remain formidable on turf

If anyone had any doubts about the superiority of Europe’s older grass horses, those doubts were put to rest on Breeders’ Cup Saturday.

Glass Slippers won the Turf Sprint (G1), Audarya nabbed the Filly & Mare Turf (G1), Tarnawa led a 1-2 finish in the Turf, and Order of Australia highlighted a 1-2-3 finish in the Mile (G1), which gave European raiders a sweep of the four Saturday grass races.

Considering Europe had never previously won the Turf Sprint, the dominance from across the pond on Breeders’ Cup Saturday suggests the home team will need improvement to offer an effective defense in 2021.

7. American turf 2-year-olds are improving

North American 2-year-olds have clearly upped their game on grass in recent years. The best fillies have always been capable of holding their own against European raiders in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Aunt Pearl’s frontrunning victory at Keeneland gave the home team 11 wins from 13 editions of the race.

But the Juvenile Turf (G1) is also starting to swing in favor of Americans. Europeans have historically dominated the race, but Fire At Will’s dominant triumph in 2020 gave the home team a second straight victory in the 1-mile test.

The quality of competition from Europe hasn’t dropped. It’s arguably grown stronger in recent years. This makes the recent American successes all the more noteworthy.

8. Whitmore is made of iron

Check out the stats — 38 starts over the course of five years and four consecutive appearances in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).

The 7-year-old gelding Whitmore is clearly an iron horse — a throwback to days long gone — and his durability was rewarded when the aging veteran parlayed a ground-saving trip into victory by 3 1/4 lengths in the 2020 Sprint.

From a betting perspective, Whitmore wasn’t a popular choice. He started at 18-1 and paid $38.80 to win. But judging from reactions on social media, Whitmore’s victory was one of the most popular moments of the Breeders’ Cup, even among handicappers who opposed him at the betting window.

Such is the respect afforded to iron horses like Whitmore, who build fan bases by competing year after year.

9. Jackie’s Warrior is questionable around two turns

Jackie’s Warrior entered the Juvenile as an undefeated sensation, with three graded stakes wins, including decisive, frontrunning triumphs in the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1).

But the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile was his first start around two turns, and after he settled behind the leaders — through fractions of :22.58, :45.31, and 1:10.48 — Jackie’s Warrior ran out of steam down the lane. Barely in front at the eighth pole, the son of Maclean’s Music weakened to finish fourth.

Given his abundant talent, Jackie’s Warrior deserves another chance to prove his ability around two turns. But it is fair to wonder whether one-turn sprints and miles might be more suitable for the speedy colt.

10. Knicks Go is a major Pegasus World Cup threat

With the retirement of established Grade 1 winners and Breeders’ Cup Classic participants Authentic, Improbable, Maximum Security, and Tom’s d’Etat, the 2021 Pegasus World Cup (G1) at Gulfstream Park is ripe for conquest by an up-and-comer.

Knicks Go could be the one to capitalize in the $3 million race.

Knicks Go has been spectacular under Cox’s care this season. He went unbeaten and unchallenged in three starts. His victory in the Dirt Mile was particularly impressive, as he raced to the front through blazing fractions of :21.98, :44.40, and 1:08.25. He then widened down the stretch to win by 3 1/2 lengths, in the track-record time of 1:33.85, which translated to a 109 Brisnet Speed rating.

With his spectacular speed and staying power, Knicks Go will be a major threat in the Pegasus. If he replicates his Dirt Mile effort against diminished competition at Gulfstream Park, victory could be a formality.