2017 Preakness BRIS Speed Rating Report
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May 15th, 2017
Always Dreaming is one of two horses in the projected Preakness field to post a triple-digit BRIS Speed Rating in the last start, registering a 100 for his 2 ¾-length Kentucky Derby triumph.
As covered in the final Kentucky Derby BRIS Speed Rating Report, Always Dreaming was tied for the second-best last-out figure (102) with Irish War Cry, who wound up finishing 10th at Churchill Downs. Hence topped all runners with a 103 BRIS Speed Rating from his final prep, the Sunland Derby (G3), but did not run back to the performance as he checked in 11th.
Eleven sophomores are considered probable for the 142nd running of the $1.5 million Preakness.
With the exception of European invader Lancaster Bomber (no Speed Ratings for overseas races), let’s take a look at the last three BRIS Speed Ratings for the prospective field (alphabetical order):
|
HORSE |
|
RACE |
|
BRIS SPEED |
|
ALWAYS DREAMING |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
100 |
|
|
|
Florida Derby |
|
102 |
|
|
|
Allowance Race |
|
84 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CLASSIC EMPIRE |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
91 |
|
|
|
Arkansas Derby |
|
96 |
|
|
|
Holy Bull |
|
92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CLOUD COMPUTING |
|
Wood Memorial |
|
94 |
|
|
|
Gotham |
|
100 |
|
|
|
Maiden Race |
|
90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONQUEST MO MONEY |
|
Arkansas Derby |
|
95 |
|
|
|
Sunland Derby |
|
99 |
|
|
|
Mine That Bird Derby |
|
88 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GUNNEVERA |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
86 |
|
|
|
Florida Derby |
|
95 |
|
|
|
Fountain of Youth |
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
HENCE |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
80 |
|
|
|
Sunland Derby |
|
103 |
|
|
|
Southwest |
|
86 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LOOKIN AT LEE |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
97 |
|
|
|
Arkansas Derby |
|
94 |
|
|
|
Rebel |
|
91 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MULTIPLIER |
|
Illinois Derby |
|
104 |
|
|
|
Maiden Race |
|
93 |
|
|
|
Maiden Race |
|
86 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SENIOR INVESTMENT |
|
Lexington |
|
93 |
|
|
|
Louisiana Derby |
|
93 |
|
|
|
Allowance Race |
|
85 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TERM OF ART |
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
92 |
|
|
|
San Felipe |
|
92 |
|
|
|
Robert B. Lewis |
|
88 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Analysis
Multiplier owns the top last-out BRIS Speed Rating (104) but is a candidate for a regression given the 11-point increase for his hard-fought Illinois Derby (G3) win. The improving colt is also facing a major class check.
Always Dreaming did not regress after posting an 18-point jump in the Florida Derby two starts back. He’s captured four straight races by open lengths and given the relative ease of victory each time, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt may still have more to offer from a BRIS Speed Rating perspective if seriously tested.
It’s far from an imposing group with most of the Preakness runners showing BRIS Speed Ratings in the low-to-mid 90s.
Hence rates as a bounce-back candidate for Steve Asmussen, who pulled off a similar training feat last year with Creator. After surprising in the Arkansas Derby, Creator finished up the track in the Kentucky Derby but was able to rebound at 16-1 in the Belmont Stakes.
BRIS Speed Ratings for last 20 Preakness Winners (* denotes Kentucky Derby winner):
|
HORSE |
|
RACE |
|
BRIS SPEED |
|
EXAGGERATOR (2016) |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
103 |
|
|
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
102 |
|
|
|
San Felipe |
|
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*AMERICAN PHAROAH |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
100 |
|
|
|
Arkansas Derby |
|
102 |
|
|
|
Rebel |
|
99 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*CALIFORNIA CHROME |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
103 |
|
|
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
106 |
|
|
|
San Felipe |
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OXBOW |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
98 |
|
|
|
Arkansas Derby |
|
90 |
|
|
|
Rebel |
|
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*I’LL HAVE ANOTHER |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
108 |
|
|
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
98 |
|
|
|
Robert B. Lewis |
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SHACKLEFORD |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
101 |
|
|
|
Florida Derby |
|
101 |
|
|
|
Fountain of Youth |
|
77 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
LOOKIN AT LUCKY |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
97 |
|
|
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
92 |
|
|
|
Rebel |
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RACHEL ALEXANDRA |
|
Kentucky Oaks |
|
111 |
|
|
|
Fantasy |
|
104 |
|
|
|
Fair Grounds Oaks |
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*BIG BROWN |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
111 |
|
|
|
Florida Derby |
|
110 |
|
|
|
Allowance Race |
|
102 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CURLIN |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
99 |
|
|
|
Arkansas Derby |
|
102 |
|
|
|
Rebel |
|
101 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BERNARDINI |
|
Withers |
|
110 |
|
|
|
Maiden Race |
|
97 |
|
|
|
Maiden Race |
|
87 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
AFLEET ALEX |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
99 |
|
|
|
Arkansas Derby |
|
107 |
|
|
|
Rebel |
|
86 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*SMARTY JONES |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
106 |
|
|
|
Arkansas Derby |
|
105 |
|
|
|
Rebel |
|
109 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*FUNNY CIDE |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
108 |
|
|
|
Wood Memorial |
|
111 |
|
|
|
Louisiana Derby |
|
103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*WAR EMBLEM |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
113 |
|
|
|
Illinois Derby |
|
109 |
|
|
|
Allowance Race |
|
105 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
POINT GIVEN |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
97 |
|
|
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
109 |
|
|
|
San Felipe |
|
103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
RED BULLET |
|
Wood Memorial |
|
105 |
|
|
|
Gotham |
|
101 |
|
|
|
Allowance Race |
|
95 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*CHARISMATIC |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
105 |
|
|
|
Lexington |
|
104 |
|
|
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
94 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*REAL QUIET |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
101 |
|
|
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
107 |
|
|
|
San Felipe |
|
103 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*SILVER CHARM |
|
Kentucky Derby |
|
107 |
|
|
|
Santa Anita Derby |
|
102 |
|
|
|
San Felipe |
|
98 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Analysis
Every previous Preakness winner earned at least a 100 BRIS Speed Rating in one of their last three starts. And only five runners meet the criteria this year:
Always Dreaming
Cloud Computing
Gunnevera
Hence
Multiplier
Always Dreaming is the only member of the 2017 Preakness field with multiple triple-digit numbers from the last three starts, a common characteristic for past winners (16 of the last 20).
Brisnet.com has free PPs for the prospective Preakness field. Check out the 2017 Preakness Contenders Page and Preakness Pedigree Fun Facts as well at the TwinSpires Blog
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