2023 Kentucky Derby Picks: Celebrity Predictions, Winning Experts Give Selections

May 6th, 2023

Kentucky Derby 149 has held many shifts in opinions and handicapping for how to structure bets due to the field changes. Horses being added as other horses scratch, so who should you bet?

2023 Kentucky Derby

Track
Churchill Downs
Race
12
Time
May 06 2023
#
Horse Info
Horse Name
Jockey
Trainer
Odds
1
Hit Show
Franco, Manuel
Cox, Brad H
24/1
2
Verifying
Gaffalione, Tyler
Cox, Brad H
14/1
3
Two Phil's
Loveberry, Jareth
Rivelli, Larry
9/1
4
Confidence Game
Graham, James
Desormeaux, J K
21/1
5
Tapit Trice
Saez, Luis
Pletcher, Todd A
9/2
6
Kingsbarns
Ortiz, Jose L
Pletcher, Todd A
11/1
7
Reincarnate
Velazquez, John R
Yakteen, Tim
14/1
8
Mage
Castellano, Javier
Delgado, Gustavo
15/1
11
Disarm
Rosario, Joel
Asmussen, Steven M
27/1
12
Jace's Road
Geroux, Florent
Cox, Brad H
33/1
13
Sun Thunder
Hernandez; Jr, Brian J
Mcpeek, Kenneth G
33/1
14
Angel Of Empire
Prat, Flavien
Cox, Brad H
4/1
16
Raise Cain
Corrales, Gerardo
Colebrook, Ben
33/1
17
Derma Sotogake
Lemaire, Christophe
Otonashi, Hidetaka
7/1
18
Rocket Can
Alvarado, Junior
Mott, William I
28/1
21
Cyclone Mischief
Rosario, Joel
Romans, Dale L
29/1
22
Mandarin Hero
Kimura, Kazushi
Fujita, Terunobu
17/1
23
King Russell
Bejarano, Rafael
Moquett, Ron
32/1
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Who should I bet with Forte and other horses scratching in Kentucky Derby 149?

How to bet the All Three-Year-Old Pick 3 on Kentucky Derby Day

There's more than one way to wager on the Kentucky Derby (G1), and on Saturday, May 6, Churchill Downs will offer a special All Three-Year-Old Pick 3 covering the Pat Day Mile (G2) in Race 8, the American Turf (G2) in Race 9, and the Kentucky Derby (G1) in Race 12.

  • $3 All 3YO Pick 3: 6,9 with 1 with 2,3,5,15 ($24)

Read the full analysis by Ashley Anderson here.

Kentucky Derby 149 Picks for Saturday, May 6 at Churchill Downs

Kentucky Derby Picks

  • #14 Angel of Empire
  • #11 Disarm
  • #5 Tapit Trice

Kentucky Derby Wagers

  • $40 win and place: #14 Angel of Empire ($80)
  • $10 exacta: 11, 14 with 5, 9, 11, 14, 15 ($80)
  • 50-cent trifecta: 11, 14 with 5, 9, 11, 14, 15 with all ($72)

Read the full Tipsheet by John Mucciolo here.

How to bet the Kentucky Derby 149 on a budget

$20 budget

Betting exactas in the Kentucky Derby is a budget-friendly strategy, but one with the potential to produce solid returns. When 15-1 shot I’ll Have Another beat 21-5 favorite Bodemeister in 2012, the $1 exacta returned $153.30.

  • $15 to win on #17 Derma Sotogake
  • $5 Exacta: 17 with 14

$60 budget

Trifecta tickets are more expensive to play, but they significantly increase the potential for big payoffs. In 2012, 12-1 shot Dullahan rounded out the trifecta behind I’ll Have Another and Bodemeister, a reasonably logical outcome that nevertheless paid $1,532.80 for every $1 ticket.

  • $24 to win on #17 Derma Sotogake
  • $1.50 Trifecta: 17 with 14 with 3,5,6,7,22,23 ($9)
  • $1.50 Trifecta: 17 with 3,5,6,7,22,23 with 14 ($9)
  • $1 Trifecta: 17 with 14 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,13 ($9)
  • $1 Trifecta: 17 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,13 with 14 ($9)

$100 budget

Hitting a Kentucky Derby superfecta is one of the hardest betting challenges in racing. The minimum wager amount is $1, so ticket costs increase sharply with each additional horse you play. But the rewards can be massive, since it’s common for unheralded longshots to crash the Kentucky Derby top four. When 30-1 outsider Went the Day Well completed the superfecta in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, the $1 payoff was $48,046.40.

  • $28 to win on #17 Derma Sotogake
  • $1 Superfecta: 17 with 14 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,13 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11,13 ($72)

Read the full analysis by Keeler Johnson here.

2023 Kentucky Derby Day

#
Race Info
Time
R1
$100K STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
3yo | | 6 1/2 Furlongs | D
R2
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
3yo+ | | 1 1/16 Miles | D
R3
$80K STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
3yo+ | | 1 Mile | D
R4
STAKES G1
4yo+ | F&M | 7 Furlongs | D
R5
STAKES G2
4yo+ | F&M | 1 Mile | T
R6
STAKES
4yo+ | | 1 Mile | D
R7
STAKES G2
3yo+ | | 5 1/2 Furlongs | T
R8
STAKES G2
3yo | | 1 Mile | D
R9
STAKES G2
3yo | | 1 1/16 Miles | T
R10
STAKES G1
4yo+ | | 7 Furlongs | D
R11
STAKES G1
4yo+ | | 1 1/8 Miles | T
R12
STAKES G1
3yo | | 1 1/4 Miles | D
R13
$100K STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
3yo | | 1 1/16 Miles | D
R14
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
3yo+ | | 7 Furlongs | D
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