How to bet the All Three-Year-Old Pick 3 on Kentucky Derby Day

May 6th, 2023

There's more than one way to wager on the Kentucky Derby (G1), and on Saturday, May 6, Churchill Downs will offer a special All Three-Year-Old Pick 3 covering the Pat Day Mile (G2) in Race 8, the American Turf (G2) in Race 9, and the Kentucky Derby (G1) in Race 12.

Below we look at each race and provide a ticket for the All 3YO Pick 3.

$3 All 3YO Pick 3: 6,9 with 1 with 2,3,5,15 ($24)

Race 8 (leg 1): Pat Day Mile (G2), one mile

#9 General Jim (4-1) comes off a victory in the seven-furlong Swale (G3) at Gulfstream on Feb. 4, in which he posted a 97 Brisnet Speed rating while beating a next-out winner by one length. The Into Mischief three-year-old will stretch back out to a mile here in his first start off a three-month layoff and will keep hot jockey Luis Saez, who is 7-for-19 to start the Churchill spring meet. Trainer Shug McGaughey is a 17% winner in graded stakes and a 20% winner with shippers.

We'll play General Jim with longshot #6 Frosted Departure (20-1), who recorded triple-digit Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings last out when racing in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel (G2). The Frosted colt dueled up front off the inside and gave way in the drive to finish eighth, but a cutback in distance may help the Kenny McPeek pupil return to the winner's circle. McPeek is a 13% winner in graded stakes, and a rider switch back to Brian Hernandez Jr. (a 21% winner in route races) could be the perfect formula for Frosted Departure to reach the winner's circle. McPeek and Hernandez have gone 13-4-3-1 when paired up together over the last 14 days, and Frosted Departure put in a bullet four-furlong workout on April 29 at Churchill.

Race 9 (leg 2): American Turf (G2), 1 1/16 miles (turf)

Last out, #1 Major Dude (5-2) came home second to Kentucky Derby contender Two Phil's in the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on synthetic, but a return to turf and a cutback in distance to 1 1/16 miles may benefit the Bolt d'Oro son. Two back, Major Dude won the Kitten's Joy (G3) racing 1 1/16 miles on turf, and in fact he's a perfect 2-for-2 in 1 1/16-mile grass contests. We'll single the Todd Pletcher pupil, who rides with regular jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in this spot.

* If you want to take a stand against the morning line favorite, #11 Carl Spackler (3-1) is worth a shot. The Lope De Vega colt moves up in class after flashing a 102 Brisnet Speed rating when triumphing in a one-mile maiden special weight by more than eight lengths. The Chad Brown trainee is bred to enjoy the stretch-out in distance here and was beaten by a head on debut when running 1 1/16 miles.

#4 Talk of the Nation (10-1) is an intriguing longshot as well. The Quality Road colt moves up in class off a win in the one-mile Columbia S. and earned a 93 Brisnet Speed rating in that victory. Trainer Shug McGaughey is a 20% winner with shippers and a 17% winner in graded stakes. Tyler Gaffalione (a 19% winner on turf) picks up the mount.

Race 12 (leg 3): Kentucky Derby (G1), 1 1/4 miles

With 20 horses slated to compete in the main event on Saturday, it's worth spreading deep in the final leg of the All 3YO Pick 3. Our top choice is #15 Forte (3-1), winner of five straight graded stakes, including the Florida Derby (G1) and Fountain of Youth (G2).

We'll also add in Brad Cox pupil #2 Verifying (15-1), an early pacesetter type who was beaten by a neck in the Blue Grass (G1) by Tapit Trice, along with #3 Two Phil’s (12-1), who dominated in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense (G3) at Churchill back in October and comes off a 5 1/4-length win in the Jeff Ruby on Turfway's synthetic track.

Lastly, we'll back #5 Tapit Trice (5-1), whose tendency to start slow is a concern. But so far he's been able to overcome his issue by rallying to win the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and Blue Grass (G1). He'll break from post 5, the gate position with the most wins to date in the Derby, and he'll keep regular rider Luis Saez.