Aqueduct: How to bet the Bay Ridge Stakes

Half a dozen New York-bred fillies and mares will traverse 1 1/8 miles in Sunday’s $100,000 Bay Ridge S. at Aqueduct, but two appear to rank a cut above their rivals.

Indeed, the Bay Ridge is shaping up like a match race between #1 Lucky Move (1-1) and #6 Mrs. Orb (6-5), who will start at opposite ends of the compact field. Both are proven stakes winners. Both have won racing 1 1/8 miles. And both have posted Brisnet Speed ratings well above those earned by the other Bay Ridge entrants.

This isn’t the first time Lucky Move and Mrs. Orb have squared off. They were separated by a nose in the 2019 Bay Ridge, in which Mrs. Orb tenaciously stemmed off Lucky Move’s late challenge. They also knocked heads in the Oct. 24 Empire Distaff H. racing 1 1/16 miles at Belmont Park, where Lucky Move turned the tables by 1 3/4 lengths.

Lucky Move hasn’t run since, but Mrs. Orb came right back to finish second in the Nov. 7 Turnback the Alarm H. (G3), reiterating her affinity for racing 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct. Facing a small but quality field led by graded stakes performers Royal Flag and Nonna Madeline, Mrs. Orb was thoroughly in the hunt down the stretch and was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths at the finish line.

Splitting Lucky Move and Mrs. Orb is the tricky part, because there won’t be much value in playing them both to win. The form of the Empire Distaff H. suggests Lucky Move is the one to back, but I’ll actually steer my wagering support toward Mrs. Orb. The defending Bay Ridge champ has more tactical speed than her key rival, which could be a significant advantage since Sunday’s race contains very little pace on paper. The fact Mrs. Orb boasts an 8-3-2-1 record at Aqueduct (whereas Lucky Move is 0-for-4) is also appealing.

With this in mind, my primary wagering strategy will be simple—a straight exacta playing Mrs. Orb over Lucky Move. But I’ll also toss in a small trifecta adding #5 Singular Sensation for third place.

$20 exacta: 6 with 1
$5 trifecta: 6 with 1 with 5
Total: $25

Good luck!