Belmont Oaks International Scouting Report: Abashiri, Kensington Lane

Two years after Cinderella’s Dream captured the Belmont Oaks (G1) for Charlie Appleby, the Godolphin trainer sends another high-profile contender in Abashiri for Saturday’s renewal at Saratoga.

Cinderella’s Dream had more racing experience under her belt as a veteran of the Dubai Carnival. But Abashiri performed better in the European mile classics, and the blueblood homebred has a world of potential in her first transatlantic foray. 

Abashiri and Kensington Lane are both coming off the Irish 1000 Guineas (G1) at the Curragh, where they placed third and fifth, respectively.

While Donnacha O’Brien’s Kensington Lane needs to move forward to turn the tables, she has some points in common with the most recent Irish shipper to plunder this race, Fozzy Stack’s Aspen Grove (2023). Both were upset winners of Group 3 races at home before attempting the Irish Guineas. Like Aspen Grove, Kensington Lane will remain stateside for American connections. 

As those parallels reveal, Europeans have had success in the Belmont Oaks, the stakes formerly contested as the Garden City in the fall. Since it became a summer fixture in 2014, four of the 12 editions have gone the way of international raiders. 

Aidan O’Brien won twice, with Athena (2018) and Santa Barbara (2021), and Aspen Grove continued the Irish theme in its typical 1 1/4-mile conditions at Belmont Park. With the redevelopment of Belmont over the past couple of years, the race was moved and shortened. Cinderella’s Dream prevailed in the 1 3/16-mile version at Aqueduct in 2024, but no internationals turned up at the Spa for the 2025 Belmont Oaks.

Abashiri and Kensington Lane have won on turning tracks, offering hope that they can adapt to a tight 1 1/8-mile circuit on the inner turf. 

Abashiri’s pedigree and background

Abashiri has some unfinished family business here. Her full sister, Group 2 scorer English Rose, was a subpar 12th as the favorite in the 2024 New York (G1) and never raced again. 

Both are daughters of the great Frankel and the Dubawi mare Sobetsu, whose career was also curtailed just when she was peaking. Likewise trained by Appleby, Sobetsu won the 2017 Prix Saint-Alary (G1) and Prix de la Nonette (G2) in what turned out to be her final start. This is the extended family of classic-winning champions Imagine and Generous, and further back, the likes of Trillion and her daughter Triptych.

Abashiri made only one start as a juvenile, but it was a memorable romp that flashed quality. Odds-on in a one-mile maiden on Kempton’s Polytrack, she was nestled among the chasing pack just off the pace. Jockey William Buick steered her into the clear after making the right-handed turn for home, and the race was soon over. Abashiri blitzed her final quarter in :22.14 to pull away by four resounding lengths, despite a touch of greenness as she began to assert. 

Abashiri’s Guineas efforts

Appleby pitched her straight into the deep end in her sophomore debut, tackling the classic 1000 Guineas (G1) at Newmarket. In a measure of her big reputation, she went off as an 8-1 shot in the 19-filly field featuring more proven rivals, and she ran a creditable fifth down the straight Rowley Mile. In comparison, Cinderella’s Dream was only seventh in her 1000 Guineas bid in 2024. 

Abashiri traveled well while tracking the pacesetter, Venetian Lace, on the near side. Very much in contention until reaching the “Dip,” she appeared to get disorganized for a few strides but kept on again. Even so, Abashiri was beaten all of four lengths by O’Brien’s victorious True Love. She was a length in front of O’Brien’s favored Precise, who was a ring-rusty seventh.

Appleby later described Abashiri as “a bit clueless when the rest were quickening.” The initial plan was to stretch out for the 1 1/2-mile Oaks (G1) at Epsom, but upon Buick’s advice, she remained at a mile for the Irish 1000 Guineas.

The 6-1 third choice, Abashiri, took a step forward at the Curragh and placed third to the dynamic Ballydoyle duo. She led on the far side, with Kensington Lane prominent in the group in the center of the course. Abashiri maintained her momentum better than Kensington Lane, and she boxed on when True Love engaged her. Neither had an answer to the whirlwind charge of the resurgent Precise, but Abashiri was a lot closer to runner-up True Love, who had just a half-length on her at the wire.

The classic form is impeccable. Precise has since added the Coronation (G1) at Royal Ascot, defeating the troubled Touleen (who had been sixth in Newmarket’s Guineas) and True Love. 

Considering her proximity to the Ballydoyle stars and her natural progression, Abashiri is a deserving favorite in the Belmont Oaks. There are two possible scruples: her pedigree screams that she’ll want to go further in time, and her action hints that she might ideally prefer a little give in the ground. 

Interestingly, Appleby mentioned the break as his potential concern. Abashiri has gotten away in good order versus fellow Europeans in her previous races, but U.S. conditions are less forgiving. 

“Abashiri should be very competitive, taking into account her performances at Newmarket and the Curragh,” Appleby told NYRA publicity. “Stall eight is slightly wider than we would have liked, and it’s her first start in America, so she might be a step slower from the gates compared to some of the others. She looks to hold a strong chance, providing she gets a clean trip round.”

Kensington Lane’s pedigree and background

Initially campaigned by Donnacha’s mother, Annemarie O’Brien, Kensington Lane was purchased by American interests following her career high in the May 4 Athasi (G3) at the Curragh. Her current ownership comprises Agave Racing Stable, Medallion Racing, and Evan Trommer.

As the Agave connection suggests, Kensington Lane is bound to join trainer Phil D’Amato in Southern California. But the Medallion connection reveals her ties to Donnacha O’Brien’s most notable U.S. runners, underscoring her claims to thrive on the move stateside. 

Balantina, his 20-1 winner of last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) at Del Mar, and Porta Fortuna, his close runner-up in the 2023 edition at Santa Anita, raced for partnerships involving Medallion. 

Kensington Lane is by Starspangledbanner, whose leading progeny include Precise, reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) hero Gstaad, and outstanding globetrotter State of Rest, winner of the 2021 Saratoga Derby (G1). Kensington Lane’s dam, Almost Always, is a daughter of supersire Galileo and Ramruma, who swept the Epsom, Irish, and Yorkshire Oaks (G1) in 1991. 

Although Kensington Lane took five starts to break her maiden at two, she was learning on the job while often facing males. After a green ninth in her Naas unveiling, she was a much-improved fifth versus males in a Curragh maiden over Irish Derby weekend. 

Kensington Lane was favored on the step up to seven furlongs at Down Royal, where she did everything right but win. Breaking sharply from the far outside post, she had the speed to angle over and argue the pace, and rolled clear, only to be mugged on the line. 

In a much saltier maiden back at the Curragh, Kensington Lane was second again. She showed fine early speed, fended off a persistent challenge, and just got run down late by Geryon, the next-out second to Constitution River in the Futurity (G2). Behind her in fifth in that maiden was Ballydoyle’s firster Hawk Mountain, an eventual Group 1 winner and the runner-up in the French Derby (G1) to Constitution River. Those two will clash again in Saturday’s Eclipse (G1) at Sandown.

Kensington Lane reverted to a fillies’ maiden for the first time since her career debut and broke through with a vengeance at Gowran Park. Employing her tactical speed, she mixed it up early before dusting her pace rival down the lane and drawing off by four lengths.

The rest of her juvenile season was anticlimactic. A cough ruled her out of the Ingabelle S. during the Irish Champions Festival at Leopardstown. Seeking black-type in the Weld Park (G3) at the Curragh, she floundered on the unsuitably soft going and ended up trailing the field. Also a bit disappointing was Ballydoyle’s Amelia Earhart, fourth as the favorite, who would go on to bigger and better things herself. 

Kensington Lane’s new career high

Resurfacing in the April 12 Priory Belle (G3) at Leopardstown, Kensington Lane was in a handy spot early but soon dropped back in the field. Jockey Chris Hayes wanted to avoid being caught up in a strong pace, especially on going that was softer than ideal. But he said that it interrupted her rhythm, and she plugged on for seventh behind True Love.

“It’s all about rhythm and ground” for Kensington Lane, Hayes said after guiding her to a 14-1 upset next time out in the Athasi. She was an entirely different proposition on good ground at the Curragh, as well as having her first opportunity at a mile. Always in a prominent position, she struck the front a little too early, but kept finding more to stave off Black Caviar Gold.

Aside from making her case to try the Irish Guineas, Kensington Lane was atoning for her Weld Park flop from last fall. Black Caviar Gold had won that day, but different conditions helped Kensington Lane to gain revenge. 

Kensington Lane was a 28-1 shot in deeper waters in the fillies’ classic. Yet she turned in a solid effort in her first start for her new U.S. owners. Forwardly placed out wide, she did not stay on as well as Abashiri on the far side. Kensington Lane wound up about 2 3/4 lengths behind third-placer Abashiri, missing fourth in a photo with familiar for Black Caviar Gold.

If Abashiri copes as well with U.S. conditions, she’d be entitled to confirm their Guineas form in the Belmont Oaks. Kensington Lane’s main talking point is that she could move up in the American environment.

Indeed, Donnacha O’Brien already had U.S. targets in mind before she was sold, as he revealed in his postrace quotes from the Athasi.

“She has a lot of gate speed,” he told irishracing.com, “so she's one that could end up maybe in the U.S., in one of those mile-and-a-quarter Grade 1s later on in the year. That could suit her. She is a smart filly, and she is improving.

“I think definitely, if she goes abroad on a turning track, a mile and a quarter will be no problem to her. That's what I'm thinking at the minute.”

Her private sale accelerated the timetable. The 1 1/8-mile Saratoga feature shaped up as a more realistic spot than last weekend’s Pretty Polly (G1) against a formidable group at the Curragh, as Medallion’s racing manager, Phillip Shelton, explained.

“We’re also at that point in the season in Europe where there are basically no more three-year-old fillies-only Grade 1s,” Shelton told NYRA publicity, “and we felt like she wants firmer ground and has plenty of positional speed, which can be atypical for a Euro, and we feel like she does have a big turn of foot.

“In the Irish 1000 Guineas, when the field split and when she started to quicken, she was out by herself for a furlong. Our rider (Hayes) felt like if anyone was nearer, she would have been closer at the finish. I don’t think she was going to run in the top three, which included Abashiri, but I think we felt with how it played out, we were unlucky. 

“We bought her after she won the Group 3, so we paid a premium, but that’s also our model. We buy proven horses, and we feel like there’s little downside with her. 

“She’ll run for Donnacha at Saratoga, and basically the plan is to send her to Phil D’Amato in California and target the Del Mar Oaks (G1) and then target the (Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup [G1]) at Keeneland and then the (American Oaks [G1]) at Santa Anita. There’s four big Grade 1s in America to try and make her a Grade 1 winner. 

“We always thought she’d suit American racing,” Shelton concluded, “and Donnacha has the opinion that she should suit it, as well, so we’ll see how she does on Saturday – that’s what makes it fun.”