Belmont Stakes pedigree profile: Hill Road

A strong late rally after a stumbling start carried Hill Road to victory in the 1 1/8-mile Peter Pan (G3) at Aqueduct, stamping the bay colt as a key contender for the 2025 Belmont (G1).

Due to renovations at Belmont Park, this year’s Belmont is taking place over 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga. The distance is shorter than the Belmont’s traditional 1 1/2 miles, and the shorter journey could make all the difference for Hill Road. While his stretch-running style gives the visual impression he’ll thrive over longer distances, his pedigree hints that 1 1/4 miles might be the upper limit of his stamina reserves.

This is partly because Hill Road’s sire is Quality Road, a four-time Grade 1 winner over distances from one mile to 1 1/8 miles. Miles and short routes were Quality Road’s strong suit, and he went 0-for-3 racing 1 1/4 miles. His talent carried him to top-three finishes in the Travers (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) racing 1 1/4 miles, but the distance was clearly a bit beyond his best.

At stud, Quality Road has sired Grade 1 winners across a wide variety of distances and surfaces. Some, like Alabama (G1) heroine Dunbar Road, Manhattan (G1) winner Spring Quality, and New York (G1) conqueror Bleecker Street, have scored their signature wins over 1 1/4 miles. But many others have starred over 1 1/8 miles or less, including champions Abel Tasman, Caledonia Road, Corniche, and National Treasure. The latter stretched his speed over 1 3/16 miles to win a slow-paced edition of the Preakness (G1), but later developed into more of a miler.

All told, the progeny of Quality Road win at an average distance of 7.5 furlongs, a solid number suggesting he passes on stamina with regularity, even if it’s often stamina that tops out at 1 1/8 miles.

The dam side of Hill Road’s pedigree trends in a similar direction—there are reasons to believe he can handle 1 1/4 miles, but they’re counterbalanced by somewhat speedier influences.

Hill Road’s dam is Exotic Notion, a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid out of Paris Notion. Exotic Notion campaigned in Argentina, where she finished second in the Jockey Club de Rosario racing 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) on dirt.

Exotic Notion’s prowess running long isn’t surprising since Lemon Drop Kid—the champion older male of 2000—was a long-winded route racer who won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, 1 1/4-mile Travers (G1), and 1 1/4-mile Suburban H. (G2) during his decorated career. He was a strong source of stamina at stud, with his progeny winning at an average distance of 7.9 furlongs.

However, it’s worth noting that Lemon Drop Kid’s daughters have tended to produce speedier runners. Examples include Forever Unbridled, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) and a few other Grade 1 prizes racing 1 1/8 miles or less; Finest City and Bar of Gold, two winners of the seven-furlong Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1); and Tamarkuz, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

Exotic Notion’s dam, Paris Notion, may also contribute some speed to the mix. An unraced daughter of the multiple Grade 1-winning sprinter/miler Dehere, Paris Notion is also the dam of City of Light, a son of Quality Road who won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup (G1).

Paris Notion, in turn, was produced by Fabulous Notion, who scored her biggest win in the 1 1/16-mile Santa Susana (G1), which is now the Santa Anita Oaks. She’s best known for foaling Fabulously Fast, winner of the seven-furlong Test (G1) and a top-three finisher in the one-mile Matron (G1) and seven-furlong Spinaway (G1).

The numerous speed influences dotted throughout the pedigree of Hill Road could make it tricky for the Peter Pan winner to negotiate distances as long as 1 1/2 miles. But that’s okay, because he was born at the right time in history and should have enough stamina to stay 1 1/4 miles in the 2025 Belmont.