2026 Belmont Stakes odds, betting strategy, cheat sheet

Get your day started right with this possible score in race 1 on Belmont Stakes day! (11 a.m. ET post time)

This seven-furlong test for fillies and mares will have as a prohibitive favorite Cold Spell, who earned a 96 Brisnet Speed rating on debut, finishing a clear second to Mashallah at Keeneland on April 23. Mashallah, however, flopped in her follow-up allowance attempt at Churchill last weekend. That doesn't mean Cold Spell will be vulnerable back against maidens, but it does inspire me to try and beat her with #5 Fusion (10-1).

Fusion ran much slower when dead-heating for second in her debut on March 8 at Aqueduct, but I expect this filly to take a significant step forward for Chad Brown. She's bred to be a good one, by Into Mischief and out of Separationofpowers, who won the Test (G1) over this track as well as the Frizette (G1).

Find more spot plays for Belmont day here.

The Belmont Stakes

The shift in distance and location is significant. Whereas the dirt track at Belmont Park is 1 1/2 miles in circumference, Saratoga’s oval is only 1 1/8 miles around. Applying post position stats from 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park to 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison. The Travers statistics suggest posts 4 through 7 are most favorable when three-year-olds race 1 1/4 miles over the Saratoga dirt. They’ve produced more wins than the posts farther inside or outside, and each post from 4 to 7 has compiled a win rate above 15%. Read the full analysis here.

Looking at a longshot is relative in the $2 million Belmont (G1) at Saratoga on Saturday. The two longest prices in the market will be Vitruvian Man and Ottinho, neither of whom seriously contended in prior stakes attempts (though they did place).

That leaves #8 Emerging Market (6-1) as the best longshot to bet in this Belmont. While he fared the worst of the Kentucky Derby starters in this field, finishing 10th, keep in mind he was racing closer to the hot pace than any of them in that closer-dominated race. He also reportedly lost a shoe, which might have affected how he finished in the final quarter mile.

Emerging Market appears to be thriving coming into this 1 1/4-mile test. I very much like his chances to spring the mild upset. Read about other longshots to consider here.

Belmont Contender Statistical Look

Top Picks for several races on Saturday’s Belmont card

Race 13 – Belmont (G1)

Speed plays well in dirt routes at Saratoga, and the 1 1/4-mile Belmont lacks frontrunners. #2 Powershift (12-1) may be viewed by some as a “rabbit” for his stablemate, late-running favorite #4 Renegade (2-1), but Powershift has always been well-regarded by connections and owns a pair of Brisnet Speed ratings (98 and 94) that compare favorably to the main contenders. Powershift is my upset pick, and I will use both Todd Pletcher-trained runners on the Pick 5 ticket.

#7 Commandment (6-1) launched a premature bid entering the backstretch of the Kentucky Derby (G1), advancing into a grueling pace that ultimately took an extreme toll on the frontrunners, and couldn’t sustain his move in the latter stages, winding up seventh. His previous Brisnet numbers remain top-notch, and a better trip is expected. I will also use #8 Emerging Market (6-1), who made only his third start in the Kentucky Derby and figures to benefit significantly from the experience.