Belmont Stakes Head-to-Head: Sovereignty versus Journalism

Although Saturday’s $2 million Belmont (G1) has several angles, the most compelling is the rematch between the winners of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1), Sovereignty and Journalism. 

Sovereignty sprang a mild upset when prevailing over Journalism in the slop at Churchill Downs, but he didn’t advance to the Preakness. Journalism accordingly went off as an even heavier favorite at Pimlico, where he averted a potential disaster in traffic and got up to win one for the ages. 

Can the battle-hardened Journalism gain revenge on Sovereignty in the Belmont? Or will Sovereignty confirm the Derby form? 

The stage is set for an epic clash at Saratoga, with the age-old dynamic of East versus West Coast adding more piquancy. Let’s see how they stack up from a head-to-head perspective.

Pedigree 

Journalism would have had an edge in the sire department if the Belmont were held at its traditional 1 1/2-mile distance rather than the 1 1/4-mile trip at the Spa. He’s by Hall of Famer Curlin, who just missed in the 2007 Belmont and went on to sire 2013 Palace Malice in his first crop. Sovereignty is by perennial leading sire Into Mischief, who has yet to make an impact on the third jewel of the Triple Crown.

Journalism’s dam, Grade 2 winner Mopotism, is by Uncle Mo and out of a Bernardini mare. Thus, she’s bred on a cross similar to 2022 Belmont hero Mo Donegal. 

But Sovereignty’s female line is arguably deeper than Journalism’s. He is out of Crowned, whose grandsires were both Belmont winners. Crowned is by Bernardini, a son of A. P. Indy (1992), and her dam, millionaire Mushka, is by Empire Maker (2003). Moreover, this maternal family is responsible for four Belmont winners – Bold Forbes (1976), Coastal (1979), Creme Fraiche (1985), and Bet Twice (1987). 

Trainer

Sovereignty is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, whose past classic wins include Country House (via disqualification in the 2019 Derby) and Drosselmeyer in the 2010 Belmont. Mott has also placed in three Belmonts, with runners-up Vision and Verse (1999) and Tacitus (2019) as well as third-placer Hofburg (2018).

Journalism’s trainer, Michael McCarthy, doesn’t have a comparable classic resume. But the California-based horseman has made the most of his opportunities, notably sending out Rombauer to win the 2021 Preakness and place third in the Belmont. Formerly a main assistant to Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, McCarthy was involved with the development of 2007 Belmont heroine Rags to Riches. 

Jockey

Sovereignty has an edge because of jockey Junior Alvarado’s longstanding familiarity with Saratoga. The New York-based rider often ranks among the top 10 during the ultra-competitive summer season, and he finished sixth in the 2024 standings. Among his major wins at the Spa are the Whitney (G1) and Forego (G1) (twice apiece), Hopeful (G1), Woodward (G1), and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1).

Journalism’s rider, Umberto Rispoli, compiled a terrific career on the international stage. The Italian native was a mainstay on the Hong Kong circuit before settling in Southern California. As a result, most of his marquee wins have come on turf. 

Race record

Both colts are admirably consistent performers who have yet to run a bad race. Each ran respectably in one-turn maidens but blossomed over a route of ground.

Journalism has a higher win percentage with a 7-5-1-1 mark. His maiden win over a mile at Del Mar kicked off a four-race streak comprising the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1). His only loss around two turns came in the Kentucky Derby, which was also his first experience on a sloppy track. 

Sovereignty’s 6-3-2-0 record reflects a more gradual ascent, in keeping with Mott’s pattern of educational runs. It spoke volumes that he entered the Street Sense (G3) as a twice-raced maiden, and romped in stakes-record time in that two-turn debut. Sovereignty’s only loss going two turns came in the Florida Derby (G1). Considering that he’d already turned in a sharp performance to win his Fountain of Youth (G2) reappearance, he wasn’t exactly primed for another big effort, and his closing second in the Florida Derby was the right stepping stone to Louisville. 

Brisnet Speed ratings

Journalism has consistently posted higher Brisnet Speed ratings. From his 99 in the Los Alamitos Futurity, he moved forward to record a 104 (San Felipe) and a 108 (Santa Anita Derby). His 102 in the Kentucky Derby represented a slight regression, but he was right back up to a 107 in the Preakness. With a clear trip, that figure might well have been even gaudier.

Sovereignty didn’t post a 99 until the Fountain of Youth, followed by a 94 in the Florida Derby. He delivered a career-best 103 in the Kentucky Derby. The question is whether he’ll continue to build on that effort, or if it might have been influenced by the sloppy conditions.

Experience over the track

Sovereignty began his career at Saratoga last summer, in the six-furlong Travers Day maiden that tends to be a pointer to the future. Sent off at 11-1, he lagged at the rear early but made a sustained rally for fourth, and he continued on with gusto to pass the leaders on the gallop-out. The winner, Tip Top Thomas, came back to finish second in the Champagne (G1). 

It’s not a demerit that Journalism has yet to race here, especially since he’s proven himself at different tracks. The main point is that Sovereignty’s eye-catching debut may hint at an affinity for the surface. 

Running style

Journalism theoretically should have an advantage because he races within ready striking distance of the leaders, while Sovereignty has more ground to make up from farther back. I expected their typical race positioning to be decisive in the Derby, with Journalism getting the jump on Sovereignty. What I hadn’t anticipated was Sovereignty’s ability to run him down anyway.

Indeed, the masterstroke was how fast Sovereignty rocketed into a contending position, effectively negating Journalism’s head start. Journalism can take some urging to wind up, appearing to hit a flat spot until he goes through his gears. That tendency likely contributed to his near-fiasco in the Preakness, as Rispoli preferred to stay inside rather than tip out when he had the chance. Journalism stormed home once he gathered momentum down the stretch.

If Journalism figures to put himself in a better early position again, Sovereignty is still eligible to deliver a push-button response to counter it. 

Projected race shape

The 11th-hour addition of Crudo to the field injects another pace element. Until the speedy son of Justify signed on, Rodriguez shaped up as the controlling speed. The two are likely to egg each other on to set a faster, or at least honest, tempo that should create a level playing field for Journalism and Sovereignty. 

The potential caveat is that Saratoga was playing very speed-friendly during the 2024 Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. Sovereignty likely would be more compromised by a speed-conducive surface, unless Alvarado gets him to lie closer than usual. 

Track condition

The other variable is the weather. At this writing, the Saratoga forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain. An off track could tip the scales against Journalism, if conditions were a factor in his Derby loss. 

While a sloppy track could play into Sovereignty’s hands, that also depends on the pace scenario. Chances are, he wouldn’t get the same kind of meltdown as in the big field at Churchill. 

Trends

As Keeler Johnson explored in his study, the statistics undermine the idea that Derby runners who skip the Preakness have an inherent advantage in the Belmont. Sovereignty’s freshening at the Spa doesn’t automatically give him an edge over Journalism, the only horse to compete in all three jewels this year. 

On the other hand, I tend to get caught up in different historical clues. You have to go back 20 years to find the last horse to lose the Derby, win the Preakness, and add the Belmont – Afleet Alex (2005). In the interim, War of Will (2019), Exaggerator (2016), Oxbow (2013), Shackleford (2011), and Curlin (2007) all rebounded in the Preakness but lost the Belmont.

Conclusion

Journalism resembles Afleet Alex more than the others on that list, not just for his escape artistry in the Preakness, but based on his overall status in the division. As the favorite in both the Derby and Preakness, he’s deserving of favoritism in the Belmont. 

Yet Sovereignty’s Derby victory was no fluke. There’s not much between them on paper, except for Journalism’s superior Brisnet Speed ratings. And those aren’t necessarily determinative, if you take the view that Sovereignty is still on the upswing. 

May a fast track, and clean trips for all, make for a decisive result!

Join us on June 7 for a rematch that will shake the stands. Many top Kentucky Derby contenders return for the Belmont S. (G1) to fight for the finish, including probable contender Journalism, winner of Preakness 150, and Sovereignty, winner of Derby 151. Who will stand in the winner's circle for Belmont?

Stay with us throughout Belmont Day during stakes races as we bring you the latest horse racing news, live odds, expert picks, and more. It is sure to be an exciting day of racing!

Also, come chat with our expert panel regarding Friday and Saturday racing during Saratoga's Friday card, including the Acorn Stakes!