Everything to know about the 2025 Belmont Stakes post positions

It’s difficult to determine how much of an impact the post position draw for the 2025 Belmont (G1) will have on the outcome of the Triple Crown’s third leg.

Post positions for the 157th Belmont were drawn on Monday evening. It’s tempting to analyze the long history of the Belmont to gauge which post positions are most likely to produce top finishers, but there are two major caveats to keep in mind when analyzing historical post-position data from the Belmont.

There have been 118 editions of the Belmont since the race moved to its primary home of Belmont Park in 1905. At first glance, it might appear post 1 offers a distinct advantage since it’s yielded the most winners (24) and the highest win percentage (20.3%) of any gate position.

Belmont Stakes post position statistics, 1905-2024

However, the inherent biases in post-position statistics favor post 1 and inflate its success metrics to some extent. Through the years, many editions of the Belmont have featured small fields with only three, four, five, or six horses. When there are only four horses in a race, any given post position has a 25% shot at producing the winner, compared to a 10% chance of any post yielding a winner in a 10-horse field. Thus, inside post positions tend to generate higher win percentages than outside posts.

With this in mind, the win percentages for post 11 (10.7%), post 12 (9.1%), and post 13 (14.3%) are quite respectable.

The second caveat is bigger. The Belmont usually takes place over 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park, the configuration used for 97 of the 118 Belmonts in our sample size. However, due to renovations at Belmont Park, the Belmont is taking place over 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga for the second straight year.

Obviously, the shift in distance and location could upend the historical post position statistics. The main track at Belmont Park is a massive 1 1/2-mile oval, whereas Saratoga is only 1 1/8 miles in circumference. Applying post positions stats from 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park to 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga is fraught with risks; it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison.

That’s why we’ve also included post positions statistics from the last 34 editions of the historic Travers (G1), another important 1 1/4-mile dirt race for three-year-olds held at Saratoga each year. Since the Travers is held over the same configuration as this year’s Belmont, Travers post position statistics may prove more relevant for identifying favorable (or unfavorable) posts.

Travers Stakes post position statistics, 1991-2024

These stats suggest posts 4 through 7 are most favorable when three-year-olds race 1 1/4 miles over the Saratoga dirt. Indeed, that was the case in the 2024 Belmont, as the victorious Dornoch posted a 17-1 upset after breaking from post 6.

Based on this data, we conclude Uncaged, Crudo, Baeza, and Journalism have all drawn favorable posts in the 2025 Belmont.

Join us on June 7 for a rematch that will shake the stands. Many top Kentucky Derby contenders return for the Belmont S. (G1) to fight for the finish, including probable contender Journalism, winner of Preakness 150, and Sovereignty, winner of Derby 151. Who will stand in the winner's circle for Belmont?

Stay with us throughout Belmont Day during stakes races as we bring you the latest horse racing news, live odds, expert picks, and more. It is sure to be an exciting day of racing!

Also, come chat with our expert panel regarding Friday and Saturday racing during Saratoga's Friday card, including the Acorn Stakes!