Best bet to play in the Sham Stakes

What is the best bet to play in Saturday’s $100,000 Sham (G3) at Santa Anita? That’s a tough question to answer.

The Sham is a 1-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race awarding 10 qualification points to the winner. But despite its significance on the Derby trail, the Sham has drawn just five starters, including a formidable favorite who seems likely to prevail at a short price.

With such a small field on tap, there won’t be much value in placing win or exacta bets. Instead, we’ll favor a straight trifecta playing the following runners in exact order:

1st: #5 Life Is Good

Conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert (a six-time winner of the Sham), Life Is Good made a fantastic impression in his Nov. 22 debut at Del Mar. Favored at 1-5 in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race, Life Is Good secured a clear lead through fast fractions of :21.80 and :44.84, then powered clear under barely any urging at all to trounce his rivals by 9 1/2 lengths.

This massive effort produced a 100 Brisnet Speed rating, and Life Is Good has trained sharply since then. A son of two-time leading sire Into Mischief, Life Is Good sold for $525,000 as a yearling and is already the early favorite for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Another powerful performance will be widely expected on Saturday.

2nd: #3 Parnelli

Although Parnelli was beaten to second place in his first three starts, the son of Quality Road was facing tough company, most notably losing a couple of close decisions against future Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up Hot Rod Charlie and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Spielberg.

Under the patient care of trainer John Shirreffs, Parnelli finally broke through in his fourth start, parlaying pace-tracking tactics into an easy 5 3/4-length victory racing a mile at Del Mar. Parnelli is gradually progressing in the right direction and figures to enjoy an ideal stalking trip in the Sham.

3rd: #1 Medina Spirit

The second Baffert trainee won his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Los Alamitos by three lengths with a solid 94 Brisnet Speed rating. Medina Spirit is stretching out significantly in distance for the Sham, but his pedigree suggests the longer trip won’t be an issue, and dropping the blinkers he wore on debut should help him work out a relaxed trip.

Even if Life Is Good starts at 1-5 again, playing a $25 straight trifecta should produce a solid return on investment if our winning combination comes in.

$25 trifecta: 5 with 3 with 1

Good luck!