Best exotic wager to play in the Smarty Jones Stakes

It looks like exotic wagers will be the key to cashing a big payoff in Friday’s $150,000 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park.

The first of four Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn, the Smarty Jones has attracted a field of seven. If the runners were evenly matched on paper, there might be some appeal to placing a hefty win bet on a 5-1 shot and calling it a day.

But betting the Smarty Jones is complicated by the fact that two horses — #3 Cowan (9-5) and #7 Caddo River (5-2) — tower over their opposition on paper. Even playing a straight exacta is unlikely to yield an enticing payoff.

If we want a big payday, we’ll have to take aim at the superfecta.

We’ll start by splitting the two favorites. Cowan will be the preferred choice, after he finished second in the Remington Springboard Mile S. But the son of Kantharos was no match for the runaway winner and weakened down the stretch to finish 5 3/4 lengths behind. Considering Cowan previously charged hard to finish second in the 5 1/2-furlong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2), I wonder if shorter distances might be Cowan’s forte.

In contrast, Caddo River handled a mile just fine when he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs two months ago. After he carved out blazing fractions of :22.38, :44.59, and 1:09.48, the Brad Cox trainee drew off to win by 9 1/2 lengths.

The 94 Brisnet Speed rating he posted is among the highest figures in the Smarty Jones field, and the fact that Friday’s race will end at the sixteenth pole (reducing the length of the homestretch to just 825 feet) should play to Caddo River’s frontrunning strengths.

I’ll confidently bet Caddo River over Cowan in the first two slots of our superfecta ticket. For third place, we’ll use Juvenile Turf S. winner #4 Big Thorn (9-2) and recent Gulfstream Park maiden winner #6 Moonlite Strike (4-1), a couple logical contenders in from Florida. We’ll add #1 Martini Blu (6-1) for fourth, considering he handled two turns just fine when he broke his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths at Hawthorne.

$10 superfecta: 7 with 3 with 4,6 with 1,4,6 ($40)

Good luck!