BetAmerica’s horse racing pick of the day: June 16, Lone Star Park

Weekday picks and plays for Thoroughbred racing.

Tuesday, June 16

Lone Star Park, Race 1: Maiden special weight (5 furlongs on turf, 2:35 p.m. ET)

The fillies and mares assembled for this 5-furlong turf dash don’t appear particularly tough, which is why #9 True Friend (4-5 on the morning line) figures to be tough to beat, even though she is trying grass for the first time.

Racing for the red-hot team of trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Stewart Elliot (26% winners together over the last 60 days), True Friend ranks as the fastest filly in Tuesday’s field, by virtue of the respectable Brisnet Speed ratings (77 and 71) she posted in a couple competitive dirt sprints at Fair Grounds and Oaklawn Park this winter.

Considering True Friend was beaten last time out by Edgeway, who returned to place in the Dogwood (G3) and Purple Martin S., it is safe to say she will face easier company at Lone Star. Her only serious opposition figures to come from #1 Sailsinthesunset (3-1), who posted Brisnet Speed ratings as high as 75 and cracked the trifecta three times during the winter meet at Sam Houston.

Sailsinthesunset has never run on turf, but the progeny of Midshipman win at a 13% rate when they tackle the lawn for the first time, so let’s bet Sailsinthesunset under True Friend in a straight exacta.

$25 exacta: 9 with 1

Good luck!