Betting the Handicaps at Royal Ascot for Day 3 on June 18
Bow Echo winning during Royal Ascot weekend. (Photo by Coady Media)
As we’ve mentioned before, Royal Ascot handicaps are not simple to play. With large fields of well-weighted horses, it’s not easy to figure out which is largely why we’ve decided to look closely at one handicap per day rather than taking a light look at all of them.
There are no guarantees, but if you get one right, you’re probably going to be profitable for the week. Fortunately for us, Kizlyar delivered at 37-1 in the Ascot Stakes on the TwinSpires market on the first day, so we can spend the rest of the week looking for some extra gains rather than worrying about whether we’ll come out on top.
Day three features three handicaps: two for three-year-olds (the 1 1/2-mile King George V and the one-mile Britannia), and one for three-year-olds and up (the seven-furlong Buckingham Palace). The form is a little more exposed in the Buckingham Palace, so we’ll target that one.
Royal Ascot, Race 7, 1.10 p.m. ET: Buckingham Palace Stakes (Handicap), turf, 7 furlongs, 4-year-olds and up, $160,000
One horse that is well in the market will be familiar to those who read yesterday’s piece on the Royal Hunt Cup. #11 Blue Brother (12-1), as we warned, didn’t get a run in Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup, so he comes here instead. As with that race, he has a chance, but it’s worth noting he’s never run a seven-furlong race, generally concentrating at 1 to 1-1/4 miles.
The morning-line favorite is #14 Cosi Bello (7-1). He’s won three of his five starts, and all his wins are at seven furlongs. He resumed with a narrow victory at Haydock April 25 and probably hasn’t reached his potential top rating yet, which puts him in this race very well.
Another on the way up is #21 River King (10-1). He had been racing at 1 1/4 miles but came back in trip to win at one mile at Newbury June 1. He led all the way at Newbury, suggesting he has the early pace required for seven furlongs here.
One of the most interesting runners is the mare #7 Royal Velvet (12-1). Horses don’t often come back from a Group 3 win, which she scored in the Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at Lingfield, to run in handicap company, but that’s the path her connections have chosen. She’s now a five-year-old, but she’s in career-best form, and she may well appreciate the challenging uphill Ascot stretch
Recent Epsom winner #18 Colombier (15-1) should be a chance on that form, but don’t ignore another horse from that race, #15 Dance in the Storm (10-1). She was fifth that day and came into the race having won her previous race at Chester; the downhill gradient at Epsom can be a negative for some horses, and a return to the uphill stretch at Ascot may well suit her better.
I also have some time for #10 Arctic Dawn (15-1), a recent Doncaster winner, and the resuming #4 Fondo Blanco (15-1). My other sneaking suspicion is for #28 Mezcala (15-1). He was third last start to Classic, one of the leading fancies for Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup; if Classic runs well in that race, don’t forget Mezcala for this one.
This is not an easy race, but I’m going to give favor to the stakes-race form of Royal Velvet, and maybe also have a sneaky side bet on Mezcala, while looking at exotics.
