Betting Saturday's Mrs. Revere Stakes at Churchill Downs

The weekend following the Breeders’ Cup is usually quiet in North American horse racing, and this year is no exception. Just one graded stakes is on the agenda, but fortunately, it’s a good one.

The $200,000 Mrs. Revere (G2) on Saturday at Churchill Downs has attracted seven 3-year-old fillies, and the 1 1/16-mile turf test looks competitive.

#3 Stunning Sky is the most accomplished runner in the field. She produced a sharp late rally to win Keeneland’s Valley View (G3) by a half-length, but the late-running filly benefited from a quick pace and seems unlikely to receive a similar setup at Churchill Downs.

#2 Positive Danger is the only frontrunner in the Mrs. Revere field, but with a career-best 82 Brisnet Speed rating, the daughter of Uncle Mo could struggle to factor on the step up in class, off an allowance victory at Indiana Grand.

The prospect of a slow pace makes #1 Hendy Woods and #4 Princess Grace appealing.

Princess Grace's credentials are obvious. The daughter of Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Karakontie won her first two starts comfortably, before she placed second in the Valley View. You can argue Princess Grace moved too soon into the quick pace. She forged to a 1 1/2-length lead at the eighth pole and faltered late. A better ride from new jockey Florent Geroux (a 20% winner at Churchill Downs) can help Princess Grace turn the tables.

But Hendy Woods might be an even more formidable contender. The winner of the Indiana Grand S. during the summer, Hendy Woods fired a big effort at Churchill Downs two starts back, when she overcame a troubled trip to finish second in the Edgewood (G2), behind 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) winner Sharing. Hendy Woods then ran deceptively well against a deep field in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1), where she finished just 3 1/4 lengths behind future Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) third-place finisher Harvey’s Lil Goil.

Both Hendy Woods and Princess Grace have the tactical speed to be prominent from the outset. But since Hendy Woods has faced tougher competition and posted faster Brisnet Speed ratings, I’ll favor her on top in the exacta and trifecta.

$6 exacta: 1 with 3,4 ($12)
$3 trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 3,4,6,7 ($18)
Total: $30

Good luck!