Betting the Starlet Stakes at Los Alamitos

Saturday’s $300,000 Starlet (G1) at Los Alamitos is shaping up to be a battle of proven form vs. untapped potential. And while the proven form is appealing, my money will be riding on potential.

Trainer Bob Baffert will saddle three of the five starters in the 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Oaks prep race, including the classy #3 Princess Noor. Sold for $1.35 million in the spring, Princess Noor is undefeated and unchallenged in three starts on the California circuit, where she cruised to victory on debut, then dominated the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and Chandelier (G2).

But Princess Noor faltered when she shipped east for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Keeneland, where she faded to finish fifth, after a tracking trip. Did the cross-country trip affect her performance? Or was the quality of competition tougher than Princess Noor faced previously?

From a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, Princess Noor pretty much ran her race in the Breeders’ Cup, which suggests she may have simply encountered faster fillies at Keeneland. If you subscribe to this view, then a race against a small field back in California should trigger a rebound. But is Princess Noor fast enough to defeat the flashy up-and-comer #4 Astute?

Although Astute has never faced graded stakes company, she is capable of winning at this level. After she wired her debut dashing 5 1/2 furlongs on turf at Santa Anita, the Richard Mandella trainee transitioned to dirt and obliterated five rivals in Del Mar’s 6 1/2-furlong Desi Arnaz S., when she powered clear to win by 7 1/2 lengths under jockey Mike Smith.

This effort produced a strong 96 Brisnet Speed rating, which is equal to Princess Noor’s highest rating. The daughter of Speightstown subsequently blazed a bullet half-mile workout in :46 on Nov. 27 at Del Mar, which suggests she is coming into the Starlet in peak form. If she handles the 1 1/16-mile distance, you can bet Astute will be tough to catch.

I’ll take a stand and key Astute on top of Princess Noor in the exacta and trifecta.

$15 exacta: 4 with 3
$5 trifecta: 4 with 3 with 1,2,5 ($15)
Total: $30

Good luck!