Betting With, and Against, Burnham Square in the Chorleywood Stakes

Grade 1 star #1 Burnham Square (2-5) will lead a field of nine postward in Saturday’s $225,000 Chorleywood S. at Churchill Downs. The 1 3/8-mile jaunt on the lawn attracted some good ones, but the race will go through the imposing Ian Wilkes trainee who has been ultra-impressive since focusing on grass racing. 

Burnham Square – With

• $24 exacta 1 with 7 ($24)
• $1 superfecta key 1 with 2,5,6,7 ($24)

Burnham Square – Against

• $24 exacta 7 with 1 ($24)
• $1 superfecta 2,7 with 1,2,7 with 1,2,5,6,7 with 1,2,5,6,7 ($24)

Burnham Square was a very good sophomore on the dirt who earned his biggest win in the 2025 Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, but he tipped his hand that the turf will be his future when rallying for a close second in the Nashville Derby (G3) at Kentucky Downs in his seasonal finale. The gelded son of Liam’s Map rallied to finish runner-up in an allowance tilt going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream in February, a race that preceded a pair of sensational graded stakes wins at 1 1/2 miles ahead of Saturday. He will be formidable beneath Brian Hernandez, Jr. 

#7 Chapman’s Peak (8-1) might have the best upset chance in the field for trainer Brad Cox. By Quality Road, the four-year-old is out of a very good grassy mare and has been victorious in each of his trio of turf tilts going 1 3/16 miles or longer. The Godolphin homebred was just a half-length behind the favorite in his 2026 debut at Gulfstream and comes off a measured tally at the distance at Keeneland most recently. He has the tactical speed to get the jump on Burnham Square turning for home under Axel Concepcion. 

#2 Parchment Party (6-1) is among the better dirt marathoners for conditioner Bill Mott, and while he is unplaced from three career runs on the sod, the Constitution five-year-old is kin to a pair of winners on the green and has to be given some respect. The Grade 3 hero comes in fresh for his third run since a trip to Australia for the Melbourne Cup (G1) in November and will be forwardly placed from the outset beneath go-to pilot Junior Alvarado. 

Louisville (G3) second #6 Dancin in Da’nile (12-1) doesn’t fit the win profile with a 4-for-32 lifetime mark, but the gelded seven-year-old rates an exotics chance with something resembling his last performance for Gail Cox. #5 Echo Lane (10-1) is a talented son of Treasure Beach who has improved his Brisnet Speed rating in three straight since stretching out on the lawn and also has top-three appeal with Francisco Arrieta in the stirrups.