Betting With, and Against, Nitrogen in the Ogden Phipps Stakes

A strong field of six fillies and mares will contest Friday’s $500,000 Ogden Phipps (G1), one of six graded races on a massive day of action at Saratoga. The 1 1/18-mile affair on the main oval is led by champion #5 Nitrogen (7-5) for trainer Mark Casse.  

Nitrogen – With

• $20 trifecta key 5 with 1,6 ($40)

Nitrogen – Against

• $20 win #1 Fully Subscribed ($20)
• $5 trifecta 1,6 with 1,5,6 with 1,5,6 ($20) 

The D J Stable homebred is a fantastic four-year-old who has compiled a 15-7-5-3 lifetime mark, which includes a two-for-two line at Saratoga, led by a triumph in the Alabama (G1) on the surface in August. The Medaglia d’Oro filly has not been super sharp in 2026 from three outings, but her recent morning drills have been fast, and returning to upstate New York will likely be a welcome sight for the morning-line choice. Regular rider Jose Ortiz will have the favorite forwardly placed from the break. 

Chad Brown’s #1 Fully Subscribed (5-2) fell a length shy in the La Troienne (G1) in her seasonal debut at Churchill Downs most recently, and while I expected her to roll home in that affair, I acknowledge that she still ran big and will improve second off the shelf. The Grade 2 heroine was excellent in picking up two graded wins while running nine panels in 2025 and comes into this event off of a trio of morning drills at this locale. The Tiz the Law four-year-old gets a fine slot on the fence to save ground early, and she will never be far back in a field that lacks a confirmed front runner. Flavien Prat will be on board. 

#6 Bless the Broken (6-1), one of two in the group for trainer Brad Cox, brought $950,000 in November and has run a trio of good ones since joining this outfit. The Laoban four-year-old was 1 1/2 lengths behind Fully Subscribed while clear in third in the La Troienne most recently, and I feel that the move to 1 1/8 miles will benefit her in this endeavor. The Kentucky-bred gets a nice slot outside in the compact cast, and pilot Florent Gertoux will benefit from being able to adapt to the pace scenario. She wouldn’t be a huge surprise.