Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Presque Isle Pick 5 carryovers

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, Sept. 14 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with horses to play in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in September.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $72 Presque Isle Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 9/18 Churchill Downs BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Challenge
• $200 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder to 9/19 Churchill Downs BCBC Qualifier
• $80 Mountaineer Feeder to 9/25 Churchill Downs KFC/BCBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#7 Sami Michal (9-2) is an unraced daughter of champion juvenile Good Magic. The chestnut filly showed speed when breezing a bullet four furlongs from the Turfway Park starting gate in :47 flat, suggesting she has the talent to factor first-time out for hot trainer Larry Rivelli, who strikes at a 30% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Let’s try a win bet on Sami Michal.

Selections

• #7 Sami Michal (9-2)
• #5 Snowdrop (3-1)
• #2 Loving Life Again (9-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #7 Sami Michal

Assiniboia Downs: Race 1: $4,000 Claiming (seven furlongs on dirt, 8:30 p.m. ET)

#5 Hardly Mischievous (9-5) exits a runner-up finish in a 7 1/2-furlong $5,500 claimer at Assiniboia. She brings sharp Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and should be formidable while dropping down to the $4,000 level.

Let’s single Hardly Mischievous to start a double wager, then bet her over #2 Norma No (2-1)—a sprinter who has won three starts in a row—in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Hardly Mischievous (9-5)
• #2 Norma No (2-1)
• #3 Kikilove (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 Double: 5 with 6
• $15 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $30

Assiniboia Downs: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 9:00 p.m. ET)

#6 Honourable Mention (4-1) debuted in a five-furlong sprint at this track and class level on Sept. 1. After breaking slowly, he launched a gradual rally to finish third, beaten only 3 1/4 lengths.

Trainer Lise Pruitt wins at a 38% rate with second-time starters, so there’s a good chance Honourable Mention will move forward and challenge for victory on Monday. He’s worthy of a win bet, and we’ll also play him over the filly #2 She’s a Maneater (9-5) in an exacta.

Selections

• #6 Honourable Mention (4-1)
• #2 She’s a Maneater (9-5)
• #1 Maximum Uproar (5-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #6 Honourable Mention
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $1,802 Pick 5 carryover (3:30 p.m. ET)
Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $2,222 Pick 5 carryover (4:51 p.m. ET)

There isn’t just one Pick 5 carryover available to chase on Monday at Presque Isle Downs—there are two.

The 50-cent early Pick 5 features an $1,802 prize pool, while the carryover for the 50-cent Late Pick 5 is larger at $2,222.

The two sequences overlap in Race 4 and Race 5. If you fail to find the winners of both races, you won’t win a share of either carryover.

Here are the horses we recommend using in these two key races:

Race 4

Race 4 is a maiden special weight for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. Among the experienced runners, #4 Sticktotheplanman (3-1) looks like the best. He’s finished second in his first two starts at this track, distance, and class level. For his third start, he’s picking up apprentice jockey Taylor Kingsley, who rides with a seven-pound weight allowance. Perhaps the weight break can send Sticktotheplanman to the winner’s circle.

But don’t leave first-time starter #5 Mobius (7-2) off your tickets. The beautifully bred son of Uncle Mo out of Noted and Quoted has put together a promising work tab highlighted by a few bullet workouts, and he’s trained by Michael Stidham, who has won the last six maiden races at Presque Isle Downs in which he’s saddled a starter. The presence of hot jockey Antonio Gallardo (a 20% winner at Presque Isle this meet) adds to the appeal.

Race 5

Race 5 is a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares dashing six furlongs on Tapeta. We’ll aim to survive using only two of the seven entrants: #1 Runaway Breeze (3-1) and #7 Lady Hamilton (5-2).

Lady Hamilton has cracked the trifecta in four straight starts over this track and class level, including a pair of six-furlong sprints. Along the way, she’s posted a trio of Brisnet Speed ratings in the 72-73 range, which is encouraging since the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Monday’s conditions is 72.

Meanwhile, Runaway Breeze has finished behind Lady Hamilton a couple of times this year, but her best recent Brisnet Speed ratings (three numbers in the 71-72 range) aren’t bad. Two starts back, she won a $6,250 claimer sprinting six furlongs at Presque Isle, so a little improvement from Runaway Breeze—or a little regression from Lady Hamilton—could result in a mild upset.

Good luck!