Breeders’ Cup Catch-Up: Vulnerable favorites and live longshots

Which favorites are vulnerable in the Nov. 6-7 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland? And which longshots are capable of outrunning expectations?

In advance of the post-position draw, let’s get a head start on our betting strategies by reviewing three horses in each category.

Vulnerable favorites

Improbable

This accomplished 4-year-old has blossomed this season, with consecutive triumphs in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), Whitney (G1), and Awesome Again (G1).

But Improbable has enjoyed perfect trips in small fields this season and figures to face more challenging circumstances in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), which stamps the son of City Zip as a vulnerable favorite.

Jackie’s Warrior

Undefeated and unchallenged in four starts, the frontrunning Jackie’s Warrior is by far the most accomplished runner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) field, off victories in the Saratoga Special (G2), Hopeful (G1), and Champagne (G1).

His tactical speed is a huge asset, but he has never run around two turns and figures to face more pace pressure in the Juvenile, which would introduce an element of uncertainty into his otherwise impressive credentials.

Princess Noor

From a visual perspective, Princess Noor has been sensational. She dominated the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and Chandelier (G2) by a combined 14 3/4 lengths, but was never asked for her best run.

Her Chandelier effort came back slow, from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and while it’s possible Princess Noor can run much faster if asked, it is also possible she hasn’t been beating the toughest competition.

We'll find out which is the case when she contests the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

Live longshots

Knicks Go

The runner-up in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but but winless eight 2019 starts, Knicks Go has found new life since he was transferred to the care of trainer Brad Cox.

The son of Paynter has won both of his starts this season and enters the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) off a powerful allowance victory at Keeneland, where he clocked 1 1/16 miles in 1:40.79 to break the track record and crush his rivals by 10 1/4 lengths.

A repeat of this effort (which produced a 110 Brisnet Speed rating) could land Knicks Go in the Dirt Mile winner’s circle.

Reinvestment Risk

If Jackie’s Warrior falters in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Reinvestment Risk can steal the show.

The runner-up in the Hopeful (G1) and Champagne (G1), Reinvestment Risk was disadvantaged on both occasions by trying to keep up with Jackie’s Warrior in the early stages. 

A larger field in the Juvenile means others can do the dirty work of softening up the favorite, which should allow Reinvestment Risk to settle back and make a focused rally down the homestretch.

Tom’s d’Etat

Although Tom’s d’Etat was beaten by Improbable in the Whitney (G1), he was compromised by a bad stumble at the start and a pedestrian early pace, so the fact that he rallied to finish third, just 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner, is impressive.

With nine consecutive triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings, plus a victory over Improbable in the Apr. 11 Oaklawn Mile S., Tom's d'Etat is fast enough to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

He is already a graded stakes winner at Keeneland, he has been freshened since the Whitney, he is versatile in terms of running style, and the 120 Brisnet Late Pace rating he posted in the Whitney was massive.

What’s not to like?